Arlington Million Day Stakes Picks and Analysis

Included for each runner is their top Brisnet Speed Figure and top Racing Post Rating at the closest distance and over the surface over the past full year. Beyers provided within the text where applicable.

7- SECRETARIAT, 10 furlongs, 3:50

1 AFANDEM (9-2, BRIS N/A, 112 RPR) Has shown ascending Racing Post Ratings in his three 2017 starts in Europe and makes his U.S. debut here for trainer Jean Claude Rouget.  He shows a win at the distance in Stakes company and is Group 2 placed at the distance as well.  It remains to be seen how son of Zoffany will take to the firm turf here, as his two prior turf starts have come on good and soft ground, but improving sort has never finished worse than 2nd and has won three of his four career starts. His RPR figures aren’t that far behind the favorites, who gift him a nine pound weight break in this spot as expert tactical rider Frankie Dettori takes the mount and could find a cozy spot on the rail behind a likely speed duel.

2 SONIC BOOM (8-1, 89 BRIS, RPR N/A)- Won the local prep for this, the American Derby at 9f (85 Beyer) but appeared to be losing ground in the stretch after setting the pace, and now stretches out to 10f for the first time against some classy Euro shippers that also tend to run on the lead. Sire More Than Ready doesn’t flatter his ability to wire this field going 10f, pass.

3 PERMIAN (9-5, BRIS N/A, 114 RPR)- Godolphin sends this seasoned charge for his first U.S. start off a 2nd place finish in the Group 1 Juddmonte Grand Prix de Paris at 12f in his last. He won the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at the same distance the race before that, and this pacesetter looms extremely dangerous on the cutback here. All told, he boasts three wins at this distance and beyond, while no other runner in this field has more than one.  In a short field, he is a tempting single, but will make his eighth start of the year following his first ship abroad for a trainer who rarely runs here; not invincible.

4 OSCAR PERFORMANCE (8-5, 98 BRIS, 114 RPR)- Juvenile Turf champion got off to a rough start this year when off the board in his first two starts, both at 8.5f. He’s rebounded nicely, winning his last two starts in wire to wire fashion as distances have increased-  the 9f Pennine Ridge (93 Beyer) and 10f Belmont Derby (96 Beyer), the latter a Grade 1 event. He got away with pretty easy leads in those wins (:49.92, :49.48) and will face more seasoned front-runners and perhaps extreme pressure here, but still appears the prominent American threat in this short field.

5 GORGEOUS KITTEN (12-1, 88 BRIS, RPR N/A)- Runner up in the local prep for this, the American Derby at 9f (82 Beyer), son of Kitten’s Joy has never contested beyond that distance. He finds an ambitious spot here in terms of figures but was gaining into the finish of his last, and his pedigree suggests potential for improvement with added ground. He’s the only true closer in the field and could make some noise undernaeth if the likely pace duel materializes.

6 TAJ MAHAL (5-1, BRIS N/A, RPR 113)- Son of Galileo has kept top company, racing four times at 10f or beyond in Group 1 races in Europe, but has missed the board in all of those attempts and shows just one win in 14 career starts, and that wasn’t even over turf. One-dimensional runner figures to go straight to the lead and try to run them all off their feet, but his Racing Post speed figures have been in decline over his last four races. His fastest race came over good/soft ground which he won’t get here.  Aidan O’Brien has had a lot of success in this race and he gets Ryan Moore aboard, which is hard to overlook, and he does receive first time Lasix and a nine pound weight break from the favorites.

PICKS:

  1. Afandem 9-2
  2. Permian 9-5
  3. Oscar Performance 8-5
  4. Taj Mahal 5-1

8- BRUCE D MEMORIAL, 8 furlongs, 4:23

1 MONGOLIAN GREYWOLF (30-1, 84 BRIS)- Cross-entered in Race 4, which might be a more realistic spot for son of Paddy O’Prado to attempt to break his maiden.

2 JUSTICE PREVAILS (30-1, 83 BRIS)- Broke his maiden in his seventh try two races back but was beaten handily by optional claimers in his last. Steps way up in class here and has never raced on the all-weather surface.

3 HARMAC (12-1, 88 BRIS)- Winner of his last, an 8f allowance, he steps up in class here and has never raced on synthetic. Trainer Grant Forster is 40% with dirt to synthetic runners but we would like to see at least some experience in his past to support him here.

4 SMOKE N GLOAT (9-2, 94 BRIS)- Speedster shows two wins and two seconds in five starts over the Arlington all-weather track and has won all of his 2017 starts ranging from 5.5f- 8f. His most impressive race to date came two back at this distance over this track as he was able to carry his speed through rapid fractions and maintain his advantage. He’s fired a bullet since then and is the only runner in the field with an 8f polytrack win on his resume; seems logical if he can withstand a likely pace duel with Uncontested.

5 KITTEN’S CAT (7-2, 84 BRIS) -Son of Kitten’s Joy out of the Mike Maker barn figures to take action on those angles alone, but he will try synthetic for just the second time in his twelfth career race after having spent the rest of his career on the turf. He was a close 4th in his only synthetic attempt, the 8.5 f Sprial, a Grade 3 contest. He hasn’t won since taking his sire’s namesake distance over the turf back in February and has been pretty consistent in the low to mid 80s in terms of speed figures. There’s not enough here on paper to support him based on his likely underlay status.

6- GAIN GROUND (12-1, 90 BRIS) -Lightly raced son of Tapit gets Joel Rosario aboard as he cuts back slightly following a 2nd place finish at 8.5f against optional claimers here in his last, where he posted a competitive figure. He held the lead in that race at the 8f mark and closer should get plenty to run at here in his third career start for trainer Eoin Harty who wins with 21% of his all weather starters.

7- YORKTON (5-1, 92 BRIS)- Has won his last two, including an 8f turf stakes at Woodbine in his most recent start and a 7f stakes triumph over the Woodbine Tapeta surface before that, where he extended through the stretch after leading from the jump. There isn’t much question about the distance here for son of Speightstown who looks poised to combine the speed of his sire with the AP Indy stamina influence he receives on bottom. Checks all the boxes but could get caught in an early speed duel.

8- UNCONTESTED (3-1, 97 BRIS)- Speedy and talented, but has never raced on synthetic and has tended to fold early when on the lead, as he’s retreated in his last three starts while setting the pace against graded company. His only win since his maiden came over a sloppy track at this distance, so it’s anyone’s guess as to how his form will translate to this surface, although sire Tiz Wonderful does leave some room for optimism on that front. More concerning is his ability to withstand the speed duel he is likely to encounter here ,  especially off a three month layoff.

9- MEMORY BANK (12-1, 86 BRIS)- Recent maiden winner moves up in class for this third career start for trainer Michael Sitdham who wins with 24% of his all-weather starters. He stands to improve here but may find these waters a bit too deep.

10- SOCIETY BEAU (6-1, 100 BRIS)- Shows a field high BRIS speed figure for his last effort, a win at 8f over optional claimers, but that came over a muddy, sealed track. Dirt runner has never run on synthetic but is impeccably bred, by Curlin out of an AP Indy mare. His BRIS Late Pace Last Race figure tops the field but we will side with the closer that has shown abiity over the surface at double the price.

PICKS:

  1. Smoke N Gloat 9-2
  2. Gain Ground 12-1
  3. Yorkton 5-1
  4. Uncontested 3-1

9- AMERICAN ST. LEGER, 13.5 furlongs, 4:58

1 KEYSTONEFORVICTORY (5-2, 108 BRIS, RPR N/A)- Won the local prep for this, the Stars And Stripes (95 Beyer), while gaining steam into the stretch, good for the highest last out BRIS figure in the field. He has now won back to back 12f races, more than any other starter. He goes third off the lay for Mike Maker who wins with 25% of his runners in that spot of their form cycle and would appear to be begging to stretch out further here as he has gained over two lengths in the stretch of both of his 12f wins, but has never gone this far before.

2 TAGHLEEB (2-1, 109 BRIS, 111 RPR)- Stretches out to a more appealing distance following a 5th place finish in his last, the 9.5f Arlington Handicap. He’ll try to turn the tables here on today’s foe Bullard’s Alley, who was 3 lengths better two back in the 2 mile Belmont Gold Cup, although neither really brought their best race that day, and Taghleeb was ahead of that foe at the 14f mark. He has triplicated the highest Racing Post Rating at 12f or beyond, most impressively back in January with a powerful late running score in the 12f W.L. McKnight (100 Beyer), and owns the speed highest figure in the field off of that effort. Looms the one to beat on paper if he runs back to it; all systems ago on the strength of a recent bullet work.

3 CREWMAN (15-1, 90 BRIS, RPR N/A)- Winner of the local graded stakes Hanshin Cup at 8f on the all-weather track (98 Beyer) was a well beaten 7th in his last in the 9.5f Arlington Handicap on the move back to turf and will look to stretch out massively here having never raced beyond that distance. Could have a say in the outcome as he figures to be part of the faster than usual early pace but we can’t see him sticking around for honors.

4- ALPHA WARRIOR (30-1, 85 BRIS, RPR N/A)- Seems ambitiously placed, as three time allowance winner takes a big step up in class second off the lay following a runner up finish beyond two miles at Mountaineer Park. He was a two time winner at 14f and beyond last year there but meets tougher foes here and has a big gap to make up in terms of speed figures.

5 TOBIAS (30-1, 83 BRIS, 98 RPR)- 8 year old will give this race another try after a 6th place finish last year, but is 0 for 4 at 12f or longer for his career, and has just one win in 32 career starts. Would be a surprise considering he finished 7th some eighteen lengths behind optional claimers in his last.

6 APPLICATOR (9-2, 106 BRIS, 100 RPR)- Need-the-lead type hung around for 3rd in the local prep for this, the Stars and Stripes,  where he posted a 93 Beyer. He hasn’t won in awhile but his most recent win was at the 12f distance in May of 2016. He’s finished a combined 15 lengths behind the favorite here today in his two marathon tries against him, but gets blinkers today and could take them a long way on the lead and stick around for a piece. Enters off a bullet work over the track; should be eager.

7 POSTULATION (5-1, 98 BRIS, 90 RPR)- Was 6th behind today’s foe Bullard’s Alley at 12f last fall but did score at that distance in his most recent start against stakes company in the Cape Henlopen (97 Beyer). That came over firmer turf in wire to wire fashion under soft fractions, but he will take a step up in class against these as he hasn’t yet won a graded event. Trainer Ed Graham won the 2014 Million with Hardest Core and wins with 48% of his next out dirt route winners.

8 BULLARD’S ALLEY (6-1, 109 BRIS, 110 RPR)- After spending the winter racing at distances far too short, he stretches out here following a 2nd place finish in the 12f Singspiel (92 Beyer).  He shows a Grade 3 place and win at that distance as well and will look to benefit from additional ground here, although it bears mention he was leading in the stretch and was subsequently caught at the wire in his last. He hasn’t been the most consistent type, as he was 5th in last year’s Stars and Stripes as the second choice and has raced 13 times since his last trip to the winner’s circle, but appears well suited against these in terms of marathon class, speed figures and experience. BRIS Prime Power selection could be in the right spot to make an impact at a square price.

PICKS:

  1. Taghleeb 2-1
  2. Bullard’s Alley 6-1
  3. Keystoneforvictory 5-2
  4. Applicator 9-2

10- BEVERLY D, 9.5 furlongs

1 DACITA (4-1, 105 BRIS, 114 RPR)- Chilean bred mare scored one of the largest wins in this division last year in winning the 10f New York Stakes (96 Beyer) over Sea Calisi who won this race in 2016, but her form has seemingly trailed off as a six year old. She could only muster 6th in her defense of that race in her most recent start, and although the race shape played against her, that was her second consecutive loss to Hawksmoor who she’ll contest again today. However, looking back to her 2016 form, her close 2nd to today’s foe Rainha da Bateria at Woodbine last fall in the Canadian Stakes (101 Beyer) merits a close look. She earned the field’s highest Racing Post Rating as she devoured two lengths in the stretch to miss by a nose over a soggy track at a distance shorter than this and while giving 9 pounds to the winner. Woodbine form tends to translate well to Arlington, and any return to prior form for off-the-pace type could turn the tables here as she enters third off the lay for the dangerous Chad Brown barn which has won the past two editions of this race. BRIS Prime Power selection figures to have a better setup today with firmer ground and more pace to run at and could be the value play of the day.

2 PRADO’S SWEET RIDE (30-1, 93 BRIS, 94 RPR)- Local hero was 2nd over this turf course last out in the Modesty (97 Beyer). She takes a bit of a class leap but does have a 9f win in the Grade 3 Regret from last year (81 Beyer). Her most recent figures aren’t incredibly far off from the rest of the field but she hasn’t won against this type of company nor running this far. She’s met today’s foe Kitten’s Roar three times but has never finished ahead of her.

3 KITTEN’S ROAR (12-1, 91 BRIS, 106 RPR)- She’s kept classy company of late, finishing 4th in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley and gaining late against the likes of Lady Eli and Dickinson at 8.5f. She was 3rd in the 10f New York Stakes (98 Beyer)  in her last behind Hawksmoor who she meets here again today, but she didn’t have a favorable setup to mount her late charge as that one got away with easy fractions up front and wired the field. She’s still winless in stakes company but the distance should fit from a pedigree standpoint, although she hasn’t won going this far. Her most recent win came in January as she held off a late charge from today’s foe Prado’s Sweet Ride in an 8.5f Stakes at the Fairgrounds (91), but it’s worrisome that her three most recent wins have all come over softer turf courses.

4 DONA BRUJA (7-2, 94 BRIS, 108 RPR)- Winner of five straight enters off her recent win in the local Modesty prep at this distance (99 Beyer) on the strength of four consecutive bullet works. She closed into a slow pace in that race (:50.37 opening half) to post the top BRIS Late Pace Last Race figure in the field and should get a better pace setup here. Argentinian bred is in career form, appears to love the track and figures to take a lot of beating. She’s only raced twice in the U.S., however, and hasn’t yet beaten anything above Grade 3 company. Favorite could be overbet after her recent win over this course but would be tough to leave out altogether. Five year old mare makes for an intriguing South American bred story line as she faces off against Dacita for the first time.

5 GRAND JETE (6-1, 91 BRIS, 85 RPR)- Has won all three starts in 2017 since arriving from Great Britain. Daughter of Dansili takes a class leap here having won the 8.5f Grade 3 Eaterton at Monmouth (95 Beyer) two back where she bested today’s foe and defending show finisher Zipessa.  She’s never raced beyond that distance but stretches out here on the strength of powerful late rushes in all three of her wins at shorter distances. An intriguing price in this race given the strong connections of Chad Brown and Joel Rosario; there’s a bit of a wise guy feel here with this one though and her speed figures are second tier in the spot.

6 ZIPESSA (15-1, 106 BRIS, 107 RPR)- Pacesetter returns to the scene after taking them as far as she could in this event a year ago and holding on for 3rd place honors. She meets a saltier group this time around however. She should enjoy the cutback following a 2nd place finish in her last in a 11f Grade 3, but this still may be a bit further than she wants to go. She has never won going further than 8.5f or above the Grade 3 level, and it is hard to elevate her above today’s foe Grand Jete, who beat her on the square two back and separated through the stretch at a shorter distance. One has to raise an eyebrow when viewing her field high 106 BRIS speed figure, which came in a lackluster 5th place finish at the Breeders’ Cup, as she’s never earned a triple digit figure in any other of her twelve career races.

7 RAINHA DA BATERIA (6-1, 105 BRIS, 106 RPR)- Consistent and versatile mare exits a 10f dead heat win over firm ground in the Grade 2 Dance Smartly at Woodbine (95 Beyer), a course that generally translates quite well to Arlington. Last year, she held off today’s foe Dacita over that same track in the 9f Canadian Stakes (101 Beyer) over a track labeled good, although she has finished behind that one twice in the last year. She was a closing fourth over yielding ground two races back in the Beaugay, losing to Dacita and Hawksmoor, but the added ground and firmer surface gives her a chance to turn the tables. One of three entrants for Chad Brown, who has owned this race of late.

8 SARANDIA (30-1, BRIS N/A, 105 RPR)- German shipper figures to show speed early and be a part of the pace. She shows a Group 2 placing at 11f and three wins at that distance amongst stakes company, all over good to soft ground, so she will be cutting back a bit here and racing over an unfamiliar surface.

9 HAWKSMOOR (9-2, 93 BRIS, 108 RPR)- Irish-bred filly has won her last two starts in wire to wire fashion, including the 9f Beaugay (100 Beyer) over yielding turf and the 10f New York Stakes over firm ground (102 Beyer). She put the naysayers to rest in the latter, as she had previously shown specific affinity for off going. The red flag here lies not in the surface condition but in the easy leads she capitalized on in those scores (:51.20 and :49.72 respectively). She is likely to see more company up front here and may very well be an underlay off her prior two efforts and field high Beyer figures, which run somewhat in contrast to her BRIS numbers. Combined with the likely firm turf and on the heels of a two month layoff, the feeling here is that the time to be on her has passed, and we’ll aim to keep her off the board in this spot.

10 RAIN GODDESS (5-1, BRIS N/A, 112 RPR)- Aidan O’Brien (1 for 17 with first timer runners in North American) shoots for his first Beverly D score as his shipper cuts back following two impressive Group 1 runner-up finishes in the 12f Irish Oaks and 10f Pretty Polly Stakes, both over good ground. In the latter, she defeated Zhukova, who had previously destroyed American males by 6 lengths in the Grade 1 Man O’War over 11f, and in the former, she was bested only by Enable, who may well end up the favorite in the Arc de Triomphe. Based on that, one could argue that even this competitive field offers some class relief. She shows ascending Racing Post ratings in each of her last five starts, the most recent of which is highly competitive here. She was running on late in both of her last two races so she may leave herself a bit too much to do at the shorter distance, and it also bears mention that while she’s kept classy company, she still has no wins above the maiden level.  Three-year old daughter of Gaileo gets first time Lasix and a six pound weight advantage here however and has every right to be in the mix if she takes to the surface and handles the ship after a busy campaign. Ryan Moore gets the mount, and the last time he was here in 2014, he took two of the four festival races.

PICKS:

  1. Dacita 4-1
  2. Dona Bruja 7-2
  3. Rain Goddess 5-1
  4. Rainha Da Bateria 6-1

ARLINGTON MILLION, 10f, 6:19

1 OAK BROOK (30-1, 94 BRIS, RPR N/A)- Surprise runner up finisher at 45-1 in the local prep for this takes a massive step up in class having never won a graded race or any race beyond 8.5f. Bombs away if you are feeling illogical.

2 OSCAR NOMINATED (15-1, 93 BRIS, 109 RPR)- Seasoned son of Kitten’s Joy has shown versatility racing between 8.5f and 12f over the last year but has never won a graded stakes on turf. He’s spent most of the year running behind the likes of Beach Patrol, Divisidero, Enterprising and Kasaqui who he meets again here and we tend to like the chances of those a bit better for the home team.

3 ENTERPRISING (30-1, 93 BRIS, 110 RPR)- Made a name for himself this winter winning a couple of gutsy 9f races at the Fairgrounds (96 Beyer), but has yet to contest beyond that distance. The pedigree suggests that this may be a bit further than he wants to go, but he was gaining ground in the stretch of both his graded 9f wins. His form since then leaves a bit to be desired, as he’s turned in off the board 6th place finishes in his last two, beaten by three of these.

4 GHOST HUNTER (30-1, 95 BRIS, RPR N/A)- Sprung a bit of an upset from a stalking position in winning the local prep for this, the Arlington Handicap at 9.5f (98 Beyer). He may have won that race a bit by default as favored Kasaqui had a terrible trip and he only held off a  45-1 shot by ¾ of a length. He was only a half length behind today’s foe Ascend four races back but that came at a mile, and he’ll need to improve upon his last speed figure to compete amongst these.

5 DEAUVILLE (7-2, 94 BRIS, 117 RPR)- Finished third in this race last year, missing the win by a half a length in a rare three year old attempt at the Million crown. He returns for another chance having improved greatly in the past year and earns morning line favoritism off the strength of two Group 1 placings and a Group 3 win in Europe. He stacks up well against some of Europe’s best measuring by his close 2nd place finish to Ulysses at this distance in April after he returned from Dubai. He earned a field high Racing Post Rating for that effort and was flattered when Ulysses came back to run 3rd behind the highly regarded Highland Reel in the Group 1 Prince of Wales, missing by just 1 1/14 lengths. Today’s foe Mehktaal wound 3.5 lengths behind the winner, so Deauville appears to fit in between- behind Ulysses and ahead of Mehktaal- at this distance. He’s been running primarily over good to soft ground overseas and should be expected to move up on a firmer surface given his performance here last year and win prior in the 10f Belmont Derby. Aidan O’Brien has a deserving favorite here as the tactical speed and form lines of Deauville should prove difficult to beat in this spot.

6 FANCIFUL ANGEL (30-1, BRIS N/A, 101 RPR)- Forwardly-placed type gets first time Lasix for his first American start. He has a single win at this distance but that came over synthetic track, and has spent most of his turf career running 8f races. He was an off the board 6th in stakes company in his first 10f turf try, so this seems an odd spot to ship over considering the strength of the other shippers. Should ensure an honest pace if nothing else.

7 THE PIZZA MAN (12-1, 94 BRIS, 111 RPR)- 2015 Arlington Million winner returns for what has to be his final race over this course where he has amassed ten career victories. He benefited from a pretty weak field two years ago though, and now as an eight-year-old, old-timer may have lost a step. The feeling here has always been that he needs a bit more ground than the 10f trip offers, and his only two wins since his Million score have come at the 12f distance. He tends to be an underlay at this track due to his popularity, so we’ll make him beat us again as we always have, especially as this race comes up as deep as it has been in recent memory.

8 KASAQUI (10-1, 94 BRIS, 113 RPR-  Last year’s runner up missed by just a neck in that race and returns for redemption after a tough luck 3rd place finish in the local prep that should provide ideal fitness for this attempt. He’s contested distances all shorter than this one since last year’s race, and perhaps that’s the reason for him having won just once in his seven races since. That was a 2 ¾ length score in the Grade 2 Wise Dan at 8.5f (102 Beyer), but this really is a true 10f horse who won twice at that distance before shipping from Argentina. He should enjoy the slight stretchout here over a track where he has never missed the board in three career starts. His mid-pack running style should set him up nicely with plenty of pace signed on, and he could be overlooked again at the windows despite his prior success here. All eyes on the grey.

9 SCOTTISH – Scratched

10 BEACH PATROL (5-1, 95 BRIS, 113 RPR)- Hard-knocking speedster was victorious in last year’s Secretariat, his first win over 10f, and subsequently threw together a string of second place finishes at 9f before faltering in his most recent two starts at longer distances. He’s been winless for the entire year and his forwardly placed style has always seemed to lend itself better to 9f races to our eyes. He didn’t really have much of an excuse when 4th two starts back to 30-1 shot Ascend, who he’ll meet here again. Divisidero caught him from off the pace in the 9f Turf Classic on Derby Day, and the 11f distance of his last race is just simply further than he wants to go. He should enjoy the cutback here, and while his Secretariat last year compares almost identically in terms of speed to Kasaqui’s Million run, we prefer the latter in this spot purely due to race shape. However, he rarely throws in a downright bad effort, and his tactical speed renders him useable on the bottom of exotics.

11 DIVISIDERO (5-1, 90 BRIS, 114 RPR)- Deep closer has been unbeatable in 9f races at Churchill but hasn’t been able to duplicate his closing punch away from that track or at the 10f distance, as he is 0 for 3 and has been off the board in all of those attempts. In his defense, he didn’t have much pace to run at when a better-than-it-looked 6th last out in the Manhattan at Belmont, as he sat back off a pace that crawled along in :50.0 for the half. He looked fantastic as he devoured Beach Patrol when winning the 9f Turf Classic two back at 9f (102 Beyer), but it is tough to support him for the win given his form lines at this distance. Perhaps the Arlington turf course, being more similar to Churchill in configuration and speed, will move him up, and he figures to be gobbling up ground late with a bit more pace to run at this time. Useable underneath.

12 ASCEND (10-1, 93 BRIS, 108 RPR)- Surprise winner of the 10f Manhattan two back at 28-1 odds (104 Beyer), five year old son of Candy Ride was unable to substantiate that effort in his most recent attempt, finishing 4th in the 11f Bowing Green at Saratoga, perhaps running a bit too close to the pace. The field high Beyer figure will likely turn some heads and he will appreciate the cutback off that effort, but he draws wide here against a tough group after getting a pretty easy trip in his upset score, and the two week turnaround may be a bit on the sharp side for this up and comer.

13 MEKHTAAL (9-2, BRIS N/A, 115 RPR)- Son of Sea the Stars drew widest of all for his first American turf attempt. He’s kept top company in Europe, and finished just behind Scottish, who he meets again today, in the 10f Prince of Wales. He has won twice at this distance in Group 2 and Group 3 company which looms the most formful of the Euro shippers, and he’s run seven times at this distance, finishing worse than second only once. Some of those race came over ground labeled good to soft but he has won twice over ground that was probably on the firmer side of “good”. Running without Lasix, he figures to be placed forwardly by Frankie Dettori, as he’s done his best running on or near the pace, and won’t want to get caught wide from this post. His combination of tactical speed, form and speed figures put him squarely in the mix here if he can circumvent the firm ground and post position.

PICKS:

  1. Deauville 7-2
  2. Kasaqui 10-1
  3. Mekhtaal 9-2
  4. Divisidero 5-1

12- PUCKER UP, 9 furlongs, 7:02

1 ROYALTY PRINCESS (30-1, 74 BRIS)- Should show early speed from the rail but goes blinkers off here. Hasn’t been able to sustain leads and stretches out after falling back in the stretch in her last two.

2 FAULT (8-1, 93 BRIS)- Closed like a freight train in her last when running against her typical style, making up four lengths in the stretch to just miss the win at 8f in the Ta Wee stakes, and passing today’s favorite Lovely Bernadette in the process. She’ll seek her first win outside optional claiming company but could get sucked up into a wicked pace from the rail here, and faded two starts back in that scenario after leading in the stretch, but if she can take back off the lead a bit, daughter of Blame should hae no trouble at the distance.

3 LIPSTICK CITY (4-1, 88 BRIS)- A Chad Brown trainee being ridden by Joel Rosario is sure to take action at the windows in a field like this, and it doesn’t hurt that she’s the only runner who enters as a last out turf winner around two turns. She exploded through the stretch winning her last in listed stakes company at 8.5f and gets to go a little further here third off the lay, where her trainer is 7 for 11 with three year old turf filles that are last out winners over the past three years. She shows ascending speed figures since last October, along with the best BRIS Late Pace Last Race figure in the field, which could come in handy considering the wealth of pace expected here. The pick.

4 JOURNEY HOME (9-2, 88 BRIS)-Made up 4 ½ lengths in the stretch two back in winning an 8.5f listed stakes. Deep closer threw up an even bigger number (99) when 8th in Grade 1 company at the longer 10f distance. She cuts back here and gets significant class relief for Graham Motion and should get plenty of pace to run at, but will need to run back to that effort, as daughter of War Front has been 8th in three of her last four outside of that one win.

5 DONTMESSWITHJOANNE (8-1, 91 BRIS) Lightly raced daughter of Pioneer of the Nile was a hard closing 5th behind two of these in the 8.5f Ta Wee, a race where the pace collapsed similarly to what we might see unfold here. She has never gone beyond 8f and should benefit from the added ground here as her Average BRIS Late Pace Figure is tired for the best in the field.  She goes third off the lay, where trainer Brad Cox wins with 23% of his runners, and should be sitting on an improved effort.

6 SENSITIVE (12-1, 83 BRIS) Closer defeated lesser at 8f in her last but will need to take a step forward figure-wise. There are other closers here that close faster in the event of a pace collapse.

7 LOVELY BERNADETTE (7-2, 92 BRIS) Closed fastest of all when 3rd in her last at 8f, but that race fell apart up front and with three entered here that all scrambled within 1.25 of the win, we’re not sure why that translates to favoritism here. Heavily raced filly has only just recently switched to turf, showing a 1st and a 3rd in her two starts and never having gone this far before. Seems beatable at these odds.

8 PRINCESS LA QUINTA (20-1, 83 BRIS) Arlington-based daughter of Quality Road has spent time shifting between turf and polytrack, with her only two career wins two coming over the latter. She takes a step up in class having just broken her made three starts back and winning against optional claimers last out.

9 KATINKA (30-1, 82 BRIS) Early speed type would seem to be up against it stretching out here, having fallen back against lesser at 8f in her last two after leading through the half.

10 HAPPY MESA (5-1, 90 BRIS) Was completely off the board and beaten by a handful of these in her last at 8f but scored an impressive listed stakes win from off the pace in the race before that, posting a competitive figure. That race seems more like an outlier than the norm looking over her form lines, but if she runs back to it, she could be a force here with Flourent Geroux aboard.

11 CANNY (15-1, 88 BRIS) Pacesetter couldn’t quite hang on in her last effort, losing to today’s foe Journey Home by a neck at 8.5f after leading the whole way. She does have a win at the distance over allowance company in the race prior, the only runner in the field that can claim that, and could carry them a long way again with Julien Leparoux in the saddle for this well bred progeny of Big Brown. One wonders how sharp she will be though as she enters off a two month layoff, the longest in the field.

12 MO’S MVP (30-1, 75 BRIS) Her one career win in seven starts came over this turf course, so why not give it a shot? Then again, that win was her maiden in her 5th try, so this looks like a bit too much too soon.

PICKS:

  1. Lipstick City (4-1)
  2. Journey Home (9-2)
  3. Dontmesswithjoanne (8-1)
  4. Fault (8-1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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