ENTHUSIAST OF ALL

PACE:

#17 FIERCENESS (City of Light/ Stay Thirsty), 5-2 Morning Line Favorite

110 Beyer, 106 Brisnet, 124 Timeform, -3.5 Thoro-Graph

Pros: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and defending two-year old Eclipse champion bounced back from a less than stellar ’24 debut when a dull 3rd in the 9.5f Holy Bull to romp by open lengths in the 9f Florida Derby last out second off the lay. That performance earned several field high figures, including Beyer, Brisnet, Timeform and Thoro-Graph (the lower the better), as well as a 113 Brisnet Late Pace Figure. Descendants of the Mr. Prospector sire line continue to win the Derby at better than a 50% clip, including the upset winners of the last two. On paper, there are no statistically significant red flags, and this one was certainly flattered when Juvenile runner-up Muth came back to win the Arkansas Derby impressively.

Cons: While brilliant on his best day, this colt’s performances have been highly inconsistent to date, even alternating dazzling efforts with completely puzzling ones; this spot would be due for a dud again if that pattern continues. The Todd Pletcher trainee has run best when allowed to get near the front of the pack and has struggled when caught behind the first flight of runners, so could be in for a tricky trip here drawn a bit wide and outside of the main speed competition. To this point, the Timeform Pace Projector (below) sees him vying for 4^th early boxed in between horses. While his closing fractions have looked good both visually and on paper, the specific breeding here does not exactly scream 10 furlongs. We don’t view post position as a statistically significant red flag, but it bears mention that no colt has ever won this race out of #17 (although he will techincally break from #16 now after the Encino scratch).

Conclusion: Certainly has the feel of a “wins or off the board” type, as anything approaching a reproduction of his Florida Derby wins this race easily; there simply is not another colt in the same stratosphere figure-wise relative to that effort. Even a bounce from the “-3.5” Thoro-Graph, or a 10 point reversion from the 110 Beyer could likely still win this. Impressively finishing his last in :36.91 for the final 3/8 and :12.59 for the final 1/8 over 9f after setting decent fractions on the lead, he’s proven that he can get better as distance increases even if 10f might not be his sweet spot. One could argue both ways on the post position; it’s true that having to battle for the lead early doesn’t seem to suit, but the connections also didn’t want to draw inside of the speed either in a 20 horse race that typically gets hot up front. If he does get loose, he will take a lot of beating. The most talented colt of his crop must be a defensive use at the very least; all arrows point to this being the most logical winner and is a deserving favorite in this group.

#1 DORNOCH (Good Magic/ Big Brown), 20-1

90 Beyer, 94 Brisnet, 114 Timeform, 6.25 Thoro-Graph

Pros: Highly touted as a two-year old off a 9f win over the slop in the Remsen, defeating one of today’s favorites in Sierra Leone. That form seemed validated after opening his three-year old campaign with a win over a short field in the 8.5f Fountain of Youth. Sire Good Magic was a runner-up in this event, and derives from the Mr. Prospector sire line. Runs third off the lay for trainer Danny Gargan, who wins with 30% of his runners in that stage of the form cycle.

Cons: Draws the dreaded #1 hole out of the gate, which has not seen a winner since Ferdinand in 1986. Does not seem to have shown much improvement since last year as speed figures have leveled off and Beyers have even declined over the last three, notably as distances have gotten longer. Despite what appears to be a strong pedigree, the field-low Brisnet Late Pace figure at 9f (76) and closing fractions at 9f (:40.05 for the final 3/8) leave a lot to be desired while trying this even longer distance. Was a disappointing 4^th last out in the 9f Blue Grass while switching tactics and never really looking comfortable, losing ground in the stretch.

Conclusion: Will have no choice other than to be sent from the rail by Luis Saez, and has done best running in that situation, but this looks like a tall order. The Fountain of Youth came up weak after being decimated by scratches, which explains why that form did not carry into the final prep. A likely pace casualty that could have some success later at shorter distances, but it is hard to make a case for use here. Toss.

#12 TRACK PHANTOM (Quality Road/ Into Mischief), 20-1

94 Beyer, 97 Brisnet, 112 Timeform, 6 Thoro-Graph

Pros: Speedy winner of the 8.5f LeComte draws well in the middle of the field and stands to be the leader early. Son of Mr. Propsector descendent Quality Road has posted three consecutive ascending Brisnet Speed Figures and was not disgraced two back when beaten a half length at 9f by Sierra Leone who will vie for favoritism in this spot. Broke maiden in third career start at Churchill going 8.5f on the dirt. Adds blinkers for Brad Cox, who wins with 17% of his runners after making that equipment change.

Cons: Has led in the stretch of six consecutive races, arguably setting soft fractions up front, but has faded in the last two while stretching out to 9f and 9.5f respectively and shows descending Thoro-Graph figures as distances have increased, which is obviously not the type of pattern we want to see coming into this. Speed figures across the board are still a cut below what we would require for a potential winner, and will have to contend with a six-week layoff (only one horse since 1956 has won a traditional Derby off a similar layoff) following a 4^th place finish in the final prep, a double whammy.

Conclusion: Can potentially take them a long way on the lead with blinkers on and adds to a likely contested pace, but figures to be in need of an oxygen mask coming home. Tried 9f and 9.5f and that wasn’t for him, even when getting away with easy leads; why would 10f be any better against more formidable pace pressure? No thanks.

#21 EPIC RIDE (Blame/ Gio Ponti), 30-1

90 Beyer, 95 Brisnet      

Pros: Draws into the field late after Encino scratched, and will try to make it two AEs in three years to shock the world after Rich Strike did so two years ago. Enters off a respectable 3^rd place finish in the Blue Grass in first career dirt start at 50-1 odds following synth wins at 6f and 8f earlier this year, and has been on the board in all five career starts.

Cons: Slots into the far outside post by nature of drawing in late, which wasn’t an issue for a closer like Rich Strike, but could prove problematic for a colt that has done best running on or near the lead. Would need to improve on speed figures, which lag at the bottom of the field. Like seemingly every runner in the Blue Grass, the final fractions and late pace figures leave a lot to be desired.

Conclusion: Unproven dirt form combined with a strenuous campaign of four starts that were not exactly pointing to this ambitious placing lead us to look elsewhere. The wide post for this speed type is the killer.

#10 TO PASSWORD (Copano Rickey/ King Kamehameha), 30-1

Beyer, Brisnet and Timeform N/A

Pros: Earns a spot in the field via Japan’s “Road to the Derby” program. No comment. Draws well in the smack dead middle of the field, and has two wins at the 9f distance in both career starts.

Cons: Should be part of the early pace, which probably is not a good thing. That is not a typo above, as this colt truly has only two career starts. We’ll talk more about the history of foreign shippers in this race later with one that actually has a chance, but spoiler alert, it isn’t good at all. Combines an international ship with a six week layoff, which is a bold strategy Cotton.

Conclusion: GET IT OFF ME! Best bet to finish last.

Timeform Pace Projector:

JUST OFF THE PACE:

#8 JUST A TOUCH (Justify/ Tapit), 10-1

96 Beyer, 100 Brisnet, 120 Timeform, 2.5 Thoro-Graph

Pros: Regally bred and cleverly named, by a Triple Crown winner who boasts the highest sire Average Winning Distance (AWD, 7.6f) of any American stallion with progeny in this field, and out of Touching Beauty, sired by the unimpeachable Tapit. Led in the stretch after contesting a hot pace and appeared home free before finishing 2^nd last out in the 9f Blue Grass just 1.5 lengths behind Sierra Leone in first two turn try while making only his third career start, and has upside off of that effort. Timeform viewed that race favorably as such hot fractions were contested, assigning it the second best figure in the field (and a faster figure than the winner, who came from well off the pace). Is one of only three colts in the field to pair Thoro-Graph numbers below “3.5”, earning back to back “2.5s” over the last two races.

Cons: While last year’s Derby winner entered equally green off of only three career starts, Mage had run twice at two turns, so there’s still a foundation question with that despite the tendency for history to be bucked in recent years. The late fractions for the Blue Grass all came back slow, but his seem especially worrisome in terms of enjoying the 10f distance (:39.75 final 3/8, 83 Brisnet Late Pace). Strangely enough, he is projected to go to the lead by Timeform (see above), which is not a great combination with those late pace numbers in a race expected to have a fast pace. Still just a maiden winner, with a runner-up finish two back at 8f over the sloppy going in the Gotham.

Conclusions: Undeniably talented with upside, and a forward move is likely based on the numbers after doing a lot of the dirty work in the Blue Grass. The Mage vibes will likely draw some bettors to the windows (underlay alert), but it is hard to make a case for turning the tables on Sierra Leone while stretching out here in fourth career start while facing more speed than last time. However, if we like Sierra Leone (spoiler alert, we do), it has to be mentioned that this one finished closer as a runner-up in the Blue Grass to that one (-1.5L) than some of today’s notable foes did in the Risen Star (Catching Freedom -1.75L, Resilience -3.5L, Honor Marie -6.25L). In the running for a minor award and can be considered on the bottom of trifectas.

#19 RESILIENCE (Into Mischief/ Smart Strike), 20-1

90 Beyer, 104 Brisnet, 112 Timeform, 4 Thoro-Graph

Pros: Enters off a 9f win in the Wood Memorial after adding blinkers, delivering the second best Brisnet Speed Figure in the field off that effort, and appears to be improving rapidly. The 98 Brisnet Late Pace Figure earned there doesn’t jump off the page, but actually stacks up well against these runners as the third best 9f figure in the field.

Cons: Took four tries to break maiden, finally getting over the hump on New Year’s Day. The Beyer figure assigned to the Wood Memorial stands in massive contrast to the Brisnet number, and it’s fair to question the quality of the field that day. When faced with stronger competition two back, he finished a well-beaten 4^th behind three of today’s foes, although that did come over a sloppy track. The #19 post does no favors for Junior Alvarado, who picks up the mount for the first time here as John Velazquez stays aboard the favorite.

Conclusion: Timeform leans toward the lower side for the Wood Memorial speed figure, so the feeling here is he will need to take a leap forward to contend with the top competitors. However, based on the Thoro-Graph jump taken over the last two races (“6.5 to “4”), this appears to be a sharply improving colt out of the Bill Mott barn that can be considered for the underneath spots in trifectas.

#18 STRONGHOLD (Ghostzapper/ Jimmy Creed), 20-1

89 Beyer, 98 Brisnet, 113 Timeform, 5.5 Thoro-Graph

Pros: Won a watered-down edition of the 9f Santa Anita Derby last out, and does have a maiden win over this Churchill track from the two-year old campaign at the mile distance. Son of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Ghostzapper has never been out of the exacta in six career starts.

Cons: The Beyer figure assigned to the Santa Anita Derby was the weakest figure assigned to that race in the history of Earth, which makes sense when you consider the Baffert defections like Muth and Nysos weakening the quality of that race considerably. Lost ground in the stretch in that race, which bears out with a low Brisnet Late Pace Figure of 91 there. Draws pretty wide out the #18 post which does not bode well for a clean trip. The breeding lends more towards speed than stamina, with the lowest damsire AWD in the field (6.6).

Conclusion: Makes the field here off an easy path while facing suspect company, and the post does absolutely no favors for a colt who needs all the luck in the world to make an impact here. Reality check coming; not for us.

#5 CATALYTIC (Catalina Cruiser/ Distorted Humor), 30-1

90 Beyer, 90 Brisnet, 111 Timeform, 3.25 Thoro-Graph

Pros: Finished 2^nd beaten 13 lengths last out in the Florida Derby in first two turn attempt while racing near the pace. Lightly raced, but does show an ascending Brisnet speed figure pattern in all three career starts. The improved Thoro-Graph pattern from “10.25” to “3.25” is eye-catching and lands just beneath the “3.5” cut line for a potential winner. Runs third off the lay for trainer Saffie Joseph, who wins with 25% of his runners in that stage of their form cycle.

Cons: There are some serious foundation questions here, as this one enters with only three career starts and just one race around two turns. Shows a number of other red flags including slow closing fractions (:39.31 final 3/8), a low Brisnet Late Pace figure at 9f (89) and slow Beyer and Brisnet speed figures.

Conclusion: An ambitious placement for a colt that has upside, but may find these waters too deep a tad too soon. Someone had to finish 2^nd in the Florida Derby, and the speed favoring track that day likely helped him stay on while the freak performance of Fierceness may have carried the Thoro-Graph number there a bit. This guy has the most red flags of any colt in the field so after some consideration we won’t be using him in our wagers, but will keep a keen eye towards a potentially strong campaign in the second half of the year.

#13 WEST SARATOGA (Exaggerator/ Uncle Mo), 50-1

85 Beyer, 87 Brisnet, 110 Timeform, 7 Thoro-Graph

Pros: Sired by a Preakness winner, who derives from the Mr. Prospector sire line. Enters here off a runner-up effort at 9f over synthetic, but does have a graded win at a mile over the Churchill Downs track as a two-year old. Well-seasoned with ten career starts.

Cons: Took FIVE tries to break maiden. Has not won a race in last four starts, dating back to last September, and has a six week layoff to contend with. Trainer Larry Demeritte wins with only 7% of his runners making the synth to dirt move (yikes). Not-so-proud owner of the field low Beyer speed figure and the third lowest Brisnet Late Pace figure at 9f (80).

Conclusion: $11,000 claim turned into a $460,000 winner trained by a lifetime horseman in his mid 70s dealing with a cancer diagnosis is a heartwarming story that is easy to root for, but it would be among the biggest shocks in Derby history if he were to hit the board.

STALKERS:

#11 FOREVER YOUNG (Real Steel/ Congrats), 10-1

Beyer and Brisnet N/A, 112 Timeform estimate, 1 Thoro-Graph

Pros: Winner of the 9.5f UAE Derby over the Meydan dirt surface enters with solid credentials off that effort, one of just two colts in the field to have won at a distance longer than 9f and the only one with three wins at 9f+. The extrapolated finishing fractions earned there are very strong, with an estimated final 3/8 of :36.63 which stands as the second fastest final 3/8 over dirt among this group. No other colt enters this race undefeated with more than three career starts, and Japanese-bred has won all five across different race tracks. Paired up Thoro-Graph figures of “1” over last two races, the only colt in the field to pair numbers that low entering the race. Looks as strong as any Dubai shipper or Japan colt have looked coming into this.

Cons: Will try to become the first UAE Derby winner or Dubai shipper to finish inside the superfecta in 19 previous tries; a 5^th place showing by Master of Hounds remains the best ever showing for a colt using this path to the Derby. After running wide in the UAE Derby due to a dislike for kickback, it’s fair to wonder how much he will enjoy sitting midpack in a 20 horse race.

Conclusion: One of these days a Japanese colt will surely win this race, but after we jumped the gun a bit last year picking Derma Sotogake as the top selection, the overall record of UAE Derby winners in this race gives us pause. That one lost all chance at the start by missing the break but still rallied well to finish 6^th, and redeemed our opinion by running an impressive 2^nd off a long layoff in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but simply could not get it done on Derby Day. All told, this is the true wild card of the race, both in terms of performance potential and value (10-1 morning line seems quite higher than the likely post time odds in our view). The lack of speed figure data from Beyer and Brisnet force us to lean heavily on the Thoro-Graph figures, which as the third best overall figure and only sub “1.5” pair certainly points to a win contender on paper, but we will try to avoid using too heavily on the top line, while respecting his chances underneath.

#6 JUST STEEL (Justify/ Fastnet Rock), 20-1

95 Beyer, 97 Brisnet, 118 Timeform, 1 Thoro-Graph

Pros: Ran on well last out when 2^nd to the highly regarded Muth in the 9f Arkansas Derby, beaten just 2 lengths while delivering a career best effort and turning the tables on today’s foe Mystik Dan. Son of Triple Crown winner Justify covered the final 3/8 of that race in :37.48 and covered the final 1/8 in rock solid :12.29, the fastest final 1/8 finish at 9f in the field, and earned a respectable 96 Brisnet Late Pace figure. While the Beyer and Brisnet figures assigned to that run are middling, Timeform views it more favorably, and the 118 earned there ranks as the third highest in the field. With eleven starts, this is a well-seasoned colt that sports the most bottom in the field and that has also had some excuses with wide trips in recent efforts, and could be sitting on a big one for Hall Of Famer D. Wayne Lukas. Has a 6.5f win over the Churchill Downs dirt track as a two-year-old, and is well bred to handle the distance with the highest sire AWD in the field of the American bred colts (7.6).

Cons: Inconsistent type has missed the board in four of eleven career starts, including two back in the 8.5f Rebel, and has head-to losses this year to two of today’s foes, Catching Freedom and Mystik Dan. Brisnet speed figure earned in the Arkansas Derby is a historical red flag by a hair (one standard deviation from the mean of an average Derby winner is 97.7), so improvement is needed to wear the roses. For those who believe in bounce patterns, the big Thoro-Graph jump from “9” to “1” last time out suggest that regression could be coming here, and it’s concerning that he has paired up similar patterns in the past.

Conclusion: When you ask yourself where Muth would be in the wagering here (almost certainly second choice?), this colt presents an intriguing opportunity at inflated odds. Fits the bill as a sneaky colt sitting on a career effort at a big price, in the vein of a Golden Soul, Commanding Curve or Lookin’ At Lee that blew up the exacta and trifecta in between the more logical contenders. This colt is incredibly close to having zero historical red flags, and boasting the third best top Thoro-Graph and Timeform figures in the field eases concern over that Brisnet number a bit. With the two primary favorites by far the most likely winners, this would be the third most likely in our view.

#3 MYSTIK DAN (Goldencents/ Colonel John), 20-1

101 Beyer, 101 Brisnet, 113 Timeform, 0.25 Thoro-Graph

Pros: Won the 8.5f Southwest two starts back over the mud, so could be one to watch and move up if the track is wet. The Beyer figure earned there is the second best in the field, the only other triple digit number earned among these besides the favorite. One of just three colts to pair Thoro-Graph figures below “3.5” in consecutive races, and the “0.25” earned in the Southwest is also the second best figure overall. Broke his maiden in second try over the Churchill Downs track at 5.5f. Might be ignored at the windows off of a better-than-it-looked 3^rd place finish last out in the Arkansas Derby, where he raced wide the whole way.

Cons: Arguably benefited from a golden rail bias, a muddy track and a perfect trip when putting up that big Beyer in the Southwest, and didn’t back it up in subsequent effort, excuses be damned. Shows a bit of a sprinter pedigree, tied for the lowest sire AWD in the field (6.5). The Brisnet Late Pace figure earned last out (91) seems to confirm longer is not better for the son of Goldencents. Draws towards the inside and may be in for a bit of a troubled trip.

Conclusion: Taking a quick look over the PPS, the wet track figure is so far above everything else he has produced in six career starts (Beyers in the two races around it are in the 80s) that there has to be attention paid to that apparent preference. Outside of that, the Thoro-Graph pattern is intriguing at the very least given the price; can be in play for the bottom of trifecta wagers on a fast track and moves up on a wet one.

#15 DOMESTIC PRODUCT (Practical Joke/ Paynter), 30-1

87 Beyer, 91 Brisnet, 102 Timeform, 7 Thoro-Graph

Pros: Enters off a win in the 8.5f Tampa Derby in early March, where he closed into a tortoise-like pace to get to the wire first by a neck. In the prior start when 2^nd in the 8.5f Holy Bull, he actually finished ahead of the morning line favorite Fierceness in that one’s first start of the year. Chad Brown trainee does have two 9f races to fall back on from the two-year old campaign, winning one to break the maiden in second career start, but stretches out quite a bit here from last. Picks up Brown’s preferred jockey Irad Ortiz to ride, which is not a bad consolation prize after regular jockey Tyler Gaffalione opts for Sierra Leone.

Cons: The glaring eyesore here is the speed figures, as the 87 Beyer earned in the Tampa Bay Derby is the lowest winning figure of any major prep. Connections opted to train up to this event after that, which equates to a substantial eight week layoff, the longest in the field and the likes of which has not been overcome in 102 years in this race. Sire Practical Joke is tied for the lowest AWD in the field (6.5), so the 10f distance remains somewhat of a question. The Tampa Bay Derby was a weak race, and if one takes the view that Fierceness was simply a short horse that day, the runner-up finish in the Holy Bull behind Hades has not been flattered by that one’s subsequent efforts (5^th and 7^th).

Conclusion: These speed figures are hard to take at face value given the bizarre fashion in which his last two races have unfolded, in which the opening ½ went in a glacial :50+ and :51+. Those types of fractions make it impossible to post a decent speed figure, and credit where credit is due for closing into less than favorable setups, but the fact remains that he has still never run a fast race. Conversely, we must draw a line through the Brisnet Late Pace figure of 125 earned in the Tampa Bay Derby as running that slow early leads to distorted finishing pace numbers by nature. Closing style intrigues at a price given the likely pace, but all told there is not a lot to go on here and we can’t fault anyone who wants to take a shot at the unknown based on the price for these connections. There could be a forward move coming, but with the longest time between races of any colt in the field, we default to looking elsewhere.

#16 GRAND MO THE FIRST (Uncle Mo/ Giant’s Causeway), 50-1

87 Beyer, 88 Brisnet, 109 Timeform, 6 Thoro-Graph

Pros: Gains entry by default via a couple of 3^rd place finishes in the Florida Derby and Tampa Bay Derby, the former of which was well-beaten, and the latter of which was an extremely weak field, but the fact remains that he has never been off the board in six career starts. The distance should be to his liking, as the AWD composite of the sire and damsire is the highest in the field for American bred colts (7.5/8.1).

Cons: Speed figures and Late Pace figures are way below the cut here, with the top Beyer tied for the second lowest in the field, and massive improvement is required to even contend among these. Derby points are great, but losing a final prep by 16 lengths isn’t; that is an insurmountable deficit to overturn.  

Conclusion: Simply looks a significant cut below these. Did pair Thoro-Graph figures of “6” in last two after running double digit numbers in first four career numbers, so improvement from there is possible. Likely still not fast enough, and would be a shock to finish in the top half of the field.

CLOSERS:

#2 SIERRA LEONE (Gun Runner/ Malibu Moon), 3-1

98 Beyer, 101 Brisnet, 116 Timeform, 1.5 Thoro-Graph

Pros: Won the Blue Grass last out at 9f with the type of sweeping wide move from off the pace that often wins this race, and has won both starts this year after adding blinkers and switching jockeys to Tyler Gaffalione. Those starts came at 9f, and this is the only American colt with two wins at that distance on dirt. While the speed figures don’t jump off the page, they’re highly competitive among these (third best Beyer, fourth best Brisnet, fourth best Timeform, fifth best Thoro-Graph) in a year full of less than average figs, and there’s a lot of upside entering off a career best in only his fourth career start over which every Beyer has increased. The Thoro-Graph pattern specifically suggests a move forward, taking a strong leap to a “1.5” in the Blue Grass after pairing the “4.75” earned in last year’s Remsen when winning the Risen Star to start the ’24 campaign. Races as though he is begging for more ground and is bred to relish classic distances. Risen Star victory was flattered when today’s foes Catching Freedom and Resilience came back to win their final preps after finishing behind him that day. One of two colts in the field without any statistical red flags.

Cons: If we are going to split hairs, this is an odd overall profile for a Derby colt, as his seeming lack of negatives are not exactly outweighed by a slew of statistical prowess. Specifically, while visually impressive, we’d have liked to have seen a faster final 3/8 in the Blue Grass than :37.95, and the Brisnet Late Pace earned there (97) while fourth best in the field is historically middling. Drawing a far inside post is never ideal in a 20 horse field, but is probably not a death sentence here given the desire to drop back, and the fact that the two colts to the outside are also closing types. Gaffalione will have a choice to make; save ground on the rail and then swing wide to gain an open lane in the stretch, or try to sneak through on the rail Mine That Bird/Rich Strike-style while risking being totally stopped in the midst of his late run. We would opt for the former in a perfect world, as that seems to be a more familiar move that has translated to prior wins, but racing luck in a 20-horse field isn’t always conducive to ideal scenarios.

Conclusions: Seems to check a lot of boxes and if one can get past the fact that this deep closer will likely have to come from last from a less than ideal post, he has the least negatives of any colt in the field. Sometimes, that’s enough. Has arguably raced against the toughest company and beaten them, and we are always drawn to the appeal of this running style in the Run For The Roses. Notably, he’s dealt with bad starts, traffic trouble and wide trips in each of his three wins to date, so should be well suited to navigate this field. The real clincher here is that this colt has demonstrated an ability to close into fractions that have not been to his advantage, as the front runners covered the ½ mile in a crawling :49.3 over the sloppy track in the Risen Star, and he closed from last on a speed favoring Keeneland track on Blue Grass Day. Versatile sort has now gets a perfect pace setup to come thundering home as the Timeform “LP” designation in a race projected as a “Fast Pace” after having won on both firm and sloppy ground. The pick, at odds we expect to drift upward from this morning line.

#4 CATCHING FREEDOM (Constitution/ Pioneer of the Nile), 8-1

97 Beyer, 100 Brisnet, 112 Timeform, 4.5 Thoro-Graph

Pros: Closed into pretty slow fractions to win impressively last out in the 9.5f Louisiana Derby, coming home in :36.58 for the final 3/8 and :12.05 for the final 1/8, earning a 101 Brisnet Late Pace figure that is the second best at 9f in the field. Strong distance breeding confirms the idea that 10f will be well within his scope and possibly even beneficial. This is one of two colts in the field to have won at the 9.5f distance, and top rider Flavien Prat retains the mount. Broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in career debut over the 8f distance, and shows ascending Beyer and Brisnet speed figures over all five career starts.

Cons: While intuitive wisdom might suggest that the longer distance of the Louisiana Derby equates to a productive prep, the opposite has been true, which must be due to the six-week layoff leading up to this. The only other statistical red flag here is the Thoro-Graph figure of “4.5” which is just below the cut line of “3.5” for a typical Derby winner. Brad Cox trainee has shown a tendency to break poorly, which while not a death sentence for a closer in this race could be problematic given the inside draw. Has tables to turn on Sierra Leone to the inside, who was better by 1.75 lengths two back over a sloppy track in a deep edition of the Risen Star.

Conclusion: Gets plenty of pace to run at, enters off an upward pattern, and another move forward seems likely with the added distance. Squarely in the mix for the exacta, and would be a completely logical upsetter, there is just another closer that already has the head-to-head edge which figures to get a similar setup that we prefer slightly more in this spot.

#7 HONOR MARIE (Honor Code/ Smart Strike), 20-1

96 Beyer, 99 Brisnet, 111 Timeform, 5.5 Thoro-Graph

Pros: Closed fast to finish 2^nd last out in the 9.5f Louisiana Derby, covering the final 3/8 in :37.01 and making up nearly two lengths in the stretch to just miss today’s foe Catching Freedom by a length at the wire. Appears well bred to handle the added distance. Won twice over the Churchill Downs track as a two-year old, including the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Cup at 8.5f. Has been working well and generating a lot of buzz over the track this week, and draws a more favorable post than the other two strong closers.

Cons: Has not raced since the aforementioned Louisiana Derby, and the six week layoff there is a historical obstacle for a win contender. The position in the form cycle might ordinarily be viewed as a positive, but trainer Whit Beckman wins with only 13% of his runners third off the lay as this one is. Deep closer is a bit of a come from the clouds type of runner, shown off the grid in the Timeform Pace Projector, so will need some racing luck and could leave himself too much to do in the stretch if laying too far back early.

Conclusion: Has finished behind Catching Freedom in both of the last two starts and was well behind Sierra Leone two back, and it’s hard to make a case for turning the tables on either one given their similar running styles, on top of the fact that Catching Freedom came home faster anyway in their last. Given that, the bottom of the trifecta would seem to be the ceiling for son of Honor Code. Has a bit of a wise-guy feel, and could wind up an underlay from this morning line at post time.  

#14 ENDLESSLY (Oscar Performance/ Langfuhr), 30-1

91 Beyer, 91 Brisnet, 113 Timeform, 9.5 Thoro-Graph

Pros: Winner of 5 of 6 career starts exits a 9f triumph over Tapeta in the Jeff Ruby Stakes at Turfway, and runs third off the lay here for a 23% trainer in that stage in Michael McCarthy. Ran the final 3/8 that day in :36.50 which is the fastest in the field, although those types of statistics are pretty typical for how the synthetic surface plays there and should be taken with a grain of salt. Began three-year old campaign with a 9f win in the El Camino Real also over the synth, so the distance itself should not pose much of an issue.

Cons: Six career starts have come on turf (4) and synthetic (2), and only Animal Kingdom in 2011 has ever won this race with no prior dirt starts. Brisnet Late Pace figure for the Ruby (93) stands in contradiction to the hard numbers there, supporting the idea that the finishing times were specific to the synthetic track. Speed figures veer towards the lower side and would need to improve to make impact, in fact, the “9.5” Thoro-Graph figure is the field’s slowest. The breeding seems fine for the distance, but is turf-laden up and down. Enters off a six week layoff, and works over the track at Churchill have been mostly awful as this colt has attempted to become acclimated to the new surface.

Conclusion: A talented turf horse; what is he doing here? Hopefully nothing goes wrong, but this is the wrong race. Trainer seems not excited to be here, but who can blame the ownership insistence to enter this race, taking a flyer from off the pace after recent results?

#20 SOCIETY MAN (Good Magic/ Colonel John), 50-1

87 Beyer, 102 Brisnet, 109 Timeform, 4.25 Thoro-Graph

Pros: Wood Memorial runner-up blew up the tote that day at 107-1, but as mentioned that race received high marks from Brisnet (third best in the field last out) that stand in stark contrast to the other figure makers; pick your poison. Son of Derby runner-up Good Magic derives from the Mr. Prospector sire line, and jockey Frankie Dettori picking up the mount for his first Derby since 2000 is intriguing to some degree.

Cons: Still just a maiden winner, and while recent winner Rich Strike entered with similar credentials, it has been a historical obstacle in winning this race for obvious reasons. While the Brisnet speed figure came back strong, the flip side to that is that the Beyer is tied for the second worst in the field. Draws the widest post of all, which while not an eliminator certainly does not inspire confidence for a favorable trip.

Conclusion: We tend to lean closer to the Beyer and Timeform estimates in the speed figure debate, and are not completely sure what Brisnet is doing with that race exactly as there was not much quality there in terms of prior form. With just one win in five career starts and facing far tougher here, this is a tall order. Cannot make a case for use, although figures to keep chugging along to finish near the middle of the field.

PICKS SUMMARY:

1. Sierra Leone 3-1
2. Fierceness 5-2
3. Just Steel 20-1
4. Catching Freedom 8-1
5. Forever Young 10-1
6. Honor Marie 20-1
7. Just A Touch 10-1
8. Resilience 20-1
9. Mystik Dan 20-1
10. Catalytic 30-1
11. Domestic Product 30-1
12. Society Man 50-1
13. Stronghold 20-1
14. Track Phantom 20-1
15. Epic Ride 30-1
16. Dornoch 20-1
17. Endlessly 30-1
18. Grand Mo The First 50-1
19. West Saratoga 50-1
20. TO Password 30-1

HOW TO BET $100 ON THE KENTUCKY DERBY:

The strategy here centers around keying the two likely winners on top, but not using them heavily in combination with one another in the exacta spots (only 8% of betting capital exposed to this). The key to making a profit will be keeping one or the other out of the exacta/ trifecta, so we want to be alive to as many of those combinations as our bankroll limits allow. Conversely, only 10% of the bankroll will be allocated to any scenario where one of the top two choices doesn’t finish in the exacta, but if we pick the right combination of horses in that scenario, that will be plenty to score a massive return.

$40 WIN: Sierra Leone

$10 PLACE: Just Steel

$1 Exacta Key: Sierra Leone/ Just Steel, Catching Freedom, Forever Young ($3)

$1 Exacta Key: Just Steel, Catching Freedom, Forever Young/ Sierra Leone ($3)

$1 Exacta Key: Fierceness/ Just Steel, Catching Freedom, Forever Young ($3)

$1 Exacta Key: Just Steel, Catching Freedom, Forever Young/ Fierceness ($3)

$1 Exacta Box: Just Steel, Catching Freedom, Forever Young ($6)

$0.50 Trifecta Part Wheel:

Sierra Leone, Fierceness/

Sierra Leone, Fierceness, Just Steel, Catching Freedom, Forever Young/

Sierra Leone, Fierceness, Just Steel, Catching Freedom, Forever Young, Honor Marie, Just A Touch, Mystik Dan, Resilience ($28)

$0.50 Trifecta Box: Just Steel, Catching Freedom, Forever Young ($3)

$0.50 Trifecta Saver: Just Steel/ Sierra Leone, Fierceness/ Sierra Leone, Fierceness ($1)