Belmont Day Late Pick 4 Picks and Analysis

8- Just A Game, 8f turf, 3:58

We’ll take a pass on trying to predict the race shape here and instead try to get through with just two that cover both scenarios in this short seven horse field. Closer ROCA ROJO hasn’t needed a strong pace to win from behind. Although she was closer to the crawling pace when winning her last, she won from well off the pace three back when they were only going :48.2 up front. She’s 3/3 at Belmont and boasts the highest speed figures in the field for 2017 (103 Beyer, 102 Brisnet). CELESTINE only knows one gear and figures to go straight to the lead. She turned in a career best effort in winning this race last year and is also a perfect 3/3 over the course. If SASSY LITTLE LILA doesn’t go with her to the inside, she could have it all her way up front. DICKINSON merits respect and figures to take money coming off an upset win over the highly regarded Lady Eli. We wonder if that wasn’t the better day to play her though, as Lady Eli was making her first start of the year and probably needed the race. She cuts back here to a distance that she may find a bit too sharp. Chad Brown sends out ANTONOE for her second start off the ship from France. She steps up in class off an allowance win last out but is Grade 3 placed across the pond and could offer value in this spot.

Picks:

1) Roca Roja 9-5

2) Celestine 3-1

3) Dickinson 5-2

4) Antonoe 8-1

9- Met Mile, 8f, 4:41

There figures to be an ample enough pace in this seemingly wide open edition of the Met Mile to side with an off-the-pace type, and all signs point in one direction. AWESOME SLEW stretches out a furlong in his third off the lay for Mark Casse. He made up nearly four lengths in the stretch when just missing by a head at 7f in his last and the added distance figures to fit him like a glove in his spot. He has a solid bullet work on 6/2 to fall back on and has won from wide posts before; all systems go for the son of Awesome Again. SHARP AZTECA looms the horse to beat on paper off his 2016 form as well as his win in the Gulfstream Park Handicap at this distance in February, where he posted a field high 113 Brisnet figure and a 106 Beyer. He bested the top choice in that race by 4.5 lengths but enters here off a long layoff following a trip to Dubai, and with other pace signed on, this may be the time to look for the tables to turn. If we like the top pick, then it is tough to overlook the others that closed impressively  in that race, TOM’S READY and SOLID WAGER, who both made up ground late to finish within a length of the winner as well. TOM’S READY appears particularly appealing, having won the 7f Woody Stephens over this course from off the pace a year ago. SOLID WAGER may have benefited a bit from the wet track that day and hasn’t yet won above the Grade 3 level, but has upside. DENMAN’S CALL upset the highly regarded Masochistic two back in the 7f Triple Bend, posting an eye-popping 104 Beyer. He faded to finish 7th in his last behind many of these but have may deserved a pass on the wet track; a return to his prior form puts himself squarely in the mix here. We’ll take a stand against the morning line favorite MOR SPIRIT, who ships in from the west coast following a career best 107 Beyer in a wire job at this distance over Grade 3 company. That was around two turns though, and he’s unlikely to have it as easy this time around with colts like SHARP AZTECA and the suddenly intriguing MOHAYMEN, who has posted two straight bullet works, gunning it early. RALLY CRY enters with strong figures on paper as well but has yet to win a stakes race, and we’d be more inclined to use ECONOMIC MODEL, who beat him head to head here a year ago, for the deeper exotics.

Picks:

1) Awesome Slew 6-1

2) Sharp Azteca 7-2

3) Tom’s Ready 15-1

4) Denman’s Call 15-1

10- Manhattan, 10f turf, 5:37

Don’t look now, but there’s only one horse in the field that has posted a triple digit Beyer beyond 9f. SADLER’S JOY comes in third off the lay for Tom Albetrani in this spot and cuts back another furlong after winning the Grade 2 Pan American at 12f two back and finishing 3rd in the Grade 1 Man O’War at 11f last out. He should see plenty of pace to close into thanks to the presence of APPLICATOR combined with a couple of favorites that are prone to being on the lead. TIME TEST was installed as 5-1 on the morning line but figures to be half of that at best and the likely favorite by post time off his Euro form, which includes a Group 1 win at the distance. His Racing Post Rating of 124 simply towers over this field (next highest is 115, several tied at 114) so he definitely figures on class and is a must use in multi-race wagers. He was beaten as the heavy favorite in his first start off the ship last out, but he gets added distance and a drier course this time, and is in receipt of weight to boot as he runs second off the lay. Sticking with the Euros, POTEMKIN looms an intriguing longshot as he runs with first time Lasix here. He is a Group 1 winner in Italy at the distance as well as a Group 2 placed in France, and also receives weight with Joel Rosario on board. His Racing Post Rating of 114 puts him right there in the mix for a piece. BEACH PATROL, WORLD APPROVAL and DIVISIDERO are the top three choices on the morning line, having established themselves at the front of the American Turf division. The feeling here though is that all three are far better suited to the 9f distance. Of the three, we prefer BEACH PATROL, who does have a win at the distance, and who has been ultra-consistent, finishing no worse than 2nd in his last five starts. WORLD APPROVAL led here most of the way a year ago before fading to 3rd and then was off the board in the Arlington Million in his only other start at the distance, and DIVISIDERO has been 5th and 7th in his two 10f tries.

Picks:

1) Sadler’s Joy 6-1

2) Time Test 5-1

3) Potemkin 8-1

4) Beach Patrol 4-1

11- Belmont Stakes, 12f, 6:37

Given that the winners of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness are passing on the final jewel of the Triple Crown, and that likely favorite Classic Empire was declared out earlier in the week, this year’s edition of the Belmont comes up a bit weak and wide open. That being the case, it is unfortunate that we’ve landed on the morning line favorite as the most likely winner, but we call them like we see them. IRISH WAR CRY seems to be on an alternating pattern of great races and disappointing ones, and is due for a bounce back after fading badly in the Kentucky Derby from a wide post. Fact is, he is still the only runner in the field to post a triple digit Beyer speed figure beyond 8.5f, and that combined with his tactical running style makes him the most likely winner in a race that often favors front runners. There isn’t any other real speed in here, as MEANTIME is a cheap front-running type who faded in the 8f Peter Pan and is bred to sprint. Being a son of Curlin, he’s likely to improve into his three year old season and this appears the right spot in the cycle. Remember, he easily dispatched eventual Preakness winner Cloud Computing in the Wood Memorial, so the quality is there when he shows up, it has just been a bit of an inconsistent proposition. Todd Pletcher has been successful in this race over the years and brings back two Derby runners here. TAPWRIT finished an above-expectations 6th in the Kentucky Derby and has been out working his one-eyed stablemate PATCH over the track. Sons of Tapit, once believed to be distance challenged, have won two of the last three editions of this race, but we will side with PATCH as the Pletcher colt the most upside from a pedigree standpoint, as his sire Union Rags and damsire AP Indy both won this race. PATCH, who had an extremely rough go of it when 14th in the Derby, is still very lightly raced making just his 5th career start, and is eligible to take a bit of a form leap here coming in fresh with John Velazquez aboard. He’ll certainly have no trouble with the distance, and the price should be right to see if he can find the speed to compete with these. Derby runner up LOOKIN AT LEE is the only runner to contest all three Triple Crown events, and while his deep closing style makes intuitive sense with the added distance here, that running style doesn’t always play well into races that don’t set up with much pace up front. He is sure to keep coming yet again but figures to miss the top spot. He is still our favorite of the closers though, as colts like SENIOR INVESTMENT and MULTIPLIER aren’t bred to run this far. J BOYS ECHO is another that defeated Cloud Computing but doesn’t seem to want to run at or beyond Classic distances, and Dubai shipper EPICHARIS has had soundness issues all week and is a play against at his 4-1 morning line. We could offer some lukewarm endorsement for GORMLEY underneath. He turned in an even enough effort when 9th in the Derby, and while he may not want to run quite this far and his speed figures have been in decline as distances have been increasing, may be able to grind his way onto the bottom of the superfecta. All told, we will give a decisive edge to the colts that competed on the first Saturday in May.

Picks:

1) Irish War Cry 7-2

2) Patch 12-1

3) Tapwrit 6-1

4) Lookin At Lee 5-1

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