Kentucky Derby 2026 Picks, Analysis and Betting Strategy

PACE:

#16 PAVLOVIAN (Pavel/ Bellamy Road) 90 Beyer, 101 Brisnet, 3.75 Thoro-Graph, 20-1

Pros: Should be forwardly placed in an edition of this race that on paper seems strangely devoid of early speed (there zero Brisnet-designated “E” types), and has a solid foundation to fall back on, with a field-high ten career starts that include a front-running runner-up finish last out in the Louisiana Derby at 9.5f. The Brisnet figure of 101 earned for that effort the fifth highest last out figure in the field, and speed figures have been ascending over the last three races per both Beyer and Brisnet. Earned a new career top “3.75” Thoro-Graph in last, a big uptick from the “8” earned prior when winning the 8.5f Sunland Derby.

Cons: While there is a bit of balance on the dam side of the pedigree, it bears mention that sire Pavel’s progeny hold an Average Winning Distance (AWD) of only 6.1 furlongs, the lowest in the field. No colt has ever won this race with a sire AWD below 6.5f since the calculation has been published. While Brisnet viewed the Louisiana Derby race more favorably, the Beyer of 90 earned there, although a career high, is well below the cut line for what it will take to be competitive here. The Brisnet Late Pace figure of 91 earned in that race is also low and a cause for concern racing a touch further now in this spot, and Timeform Late Pace figures rank in the bottom quadrant as well. Finally, the six-week layoff between the Louisiana Derby and the Kentucky Derby has been a historical obstacle, as only one colt since 1956 has won a traditional May Kentucky Derby off of a layoff of that many weeks.

Conclusion: Improving sort could take them a long way on the lead, but was caught in the stretch last out and has to run even further this time against tougher foes. It’s conceivable to envision a scenario where the pace is slower than usual and he is able to hang around for a piece as the beneficiary of that race shape, but the fractions in this 20-horse field seem to always be faster than anticipated and seem to be trending that way again with a lot of cheap speed drawing in late off of the “also eligible” list due to scratches this week. It would be no surprise for the Doug O’Neil trainee to give exotics bettors a scare late, but we’ll be looking elsewhere on our tickets.

#17 SIX SPEED (Not This Time/ Medaglia D’Oro) Beyer N/A, Brisnet N/A, 4 Thoro-Graph, 50-1

Pros: UAE Derby runner-up looks like a one-way colt that should add heavily to the perceived pace, potentially shot like a rocket to the front of the field. Shipper has hit the board in all five career starts over the Meydan course and although that race was the first try beyond 8f, seems well bred enough to handle the distance, with strong stamina influences underneath (damsire AWD of 7.7). A field high Tomlinson Distance Rating of 394 confirms this general train of thought. Enters off a Thoro-Graph pattern that shows mild improvement from a “6” to a “5” to a “4” last time out.

Cons: Makes first stateside start, and we are still waiting for our first UAE Derby colt to win this race. This one fell back badly late in that race when stretching out for the first time and has to run further now on an unfamiliar track. The Meydan dirt may have been slow that day, but covering the final 3/8f in a plodding :41.0 does not inspire much confidence in regard to distance aptitude despite the positives in the pedigree data. This is not a good combination at all for a presumptive pacesetter who may not be prepared for company on the lead.

Conclusion: Lone advantage appears to be from a pace standpoint as unratable sort will likely be the leader early, but how well will he break off of the ship, and can he really carry his speed this far if he does? It’s fair to envision this colt coming out blazing from this wide post and given the lack of run-up at Meydan, is potentially capable of leading the field through a sub :46.0 first half based upon extrapolating those early UAE Derby fractions. Many more talented colts have taken the same path and failed; this almost certain pace casualty is likely to be badly in need of an oxygen mask at the top of the stretch, and is not for us.

#3 INTREPIDO (Maximus Mischief/ Pleasantly Perfect) 89 Beyer, 96 Brisnet, 4.5 Thoro-Graph, 50-1

Pros: Showed flash as a two-year old, winning an 8.5f Grade 1 stakes at Santa Anita before running 2^nd at a mile in the 2026 debut. Thoro-Graph pattern is mildly improving and did earn a new career top last time out, but has work to do from that number. Shows no above average attributes statistically relative to a Derby winner.

Cons: Finished a flat 4^th last time out beaten ten lengths when stepping up against tougher foes and racing wide in the 9f Santa Anita Derby, and we never like to see colts enter this race after failing to hit the board in their final prep (there are four of them here in that category). The speed figures have leveled off from the two-year old campaign and therefore are well below the historical red flag cut line for this race. Did not finish well when stretching out to 9f, coming home in :13.90 for the final 1/8 and :39.50 for the final 3/8, earning a paltry Brisnet Late Pace figure of 86. Will likely be forced hard early as the furthest inside drawn speed.

Conclusion: A somewhat puzzling blow out work this week (:45.0 for 4f!) demonstrates a lack of organization from the connections of a colt that drew into the field late and already has a lot going against him. Trainer Jeff Mullins’ public negative comments on the work are the icing on the cake here; TOSS.

#4 LITMUS TEST (Nyquist/ Malibu Moon ) 82 Beyer, 87 Brisnet, 50-1

Pros: Sired by a Derby winner who contested a hot pace and held on forcefully. Ran 4^th in the 8.5f Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a two-year old last fall and earned a 102 Brisnet Speed Figure, but has not been able to reproduce that form this year. Goes third off the lay for Bob Baffert, who is a 38% winner with runners in that stage of their form cycle. Blinkers go back on here and should be in the mix early from an inside post.Shows no above average attributes statistically relative to a Derby winner.

Cons: Removed blinkers and finished 7^th in a final prep that wasn’t exactly loaded with fierce competition, an enormous red flag entering a race like this one as no colt finishing outside of the top five in its final prep has won this race in modern history. Has fallen back badly in last two races as distances have increased, posting no better than an 85 Brisnet Late Pace figure. Top Brisnet speed figure around two turns as a three-year-old is the field’s lowest, and is actually the rare case of a colt that enters this race off of four consecutive DESCENDING speed figs. Gets a first-time jockey in Martin Garcia.

Conclusion: It’s always difficult to entirely dismiss a Baffert speed horse in this race, especially at inflated odds, but this looks like a miler that appears particularly in over his head here. An almost certain pace casualty from this inside draw; TOSS.

#23 ROBUSTA (Accelerate/ Into Mischief) 97 Beyer, 89 Brisnet, 50-1

Pros: Enters off the AE list after a Friday scratch, the same path Rich Strike took to a stunning victory four years ago. Earns a spot here off the strength of a 2^nd place finish two back in the 8.5f San Felipe ahead of subsequent Santa Anita Derby winner So Happy. Breeding seems to indicate that 10f is within reach, descending from the Mr. Propsector sire line. Adds pace.

Cons: The San Felipe race stands as a bit of an outlier relative to the overall form lines, a fact that isn’t lost on us following a last place finish last out in the Santa Anita Derby. If colts that miss the board in their final prep are a red flag, then what are we to do when they finish last of seven? The most troubling aspect here is the manner of the losing, having surrendered 16 lengths over the final 3/8f after racing near the lead to that point, coming home in :41.10 and delivering a measly Brisnet Late Pace figure of 66. Has just a single maiden victory on the career. Cristian Torres picks up the mount as connections scrambled to pull this together quickly; named rider had already committed to mounts at Santa Anita.

Conclusion: Adds more cheap speed to the race, but very little else of an appealing nature. TOSS.

#21 GREAT WHITE (Volatile/ Uncle Mo) 84 Beyer, 92 Brisnet, 50-1

Pros: Winner two races back at 8.5f over the all-weather surface at Turfway Park, beating Fulleffort, and was flattered when that one ran back impressively to win the Jeff Ruby, also over a synthetic surface. Enormous grey figures to add to the pace from a far outside break, cheap speed as it may be.

Cons: After racing over synthetic for first three career starts, tried dirt for the first time last out in final prep, and to say that it did not go well at all would be putting it incredibly mildly. The colt hated the surface with the passion of ten million suns and essentially stopped running altogether halfway through the race, finishing 5^th beaten 22 lengths and losing 11 lengths in the stretch. Earned an off-the-charts field low Brisnet Late Pace figure of 56 after coming home in :42.23 for the final 3/8f and :15.20 for the final 1/8f; these are akin to fractions you might see of a horse being eased. Not surprisingly, the speed figures for that effort came back horribly, and even the figures earned for the prior efforts off the dirt lag well behind the main players here. Pedigree appears more geared to shorter distances, especially on top, with a sire AWD of 6.5f, so it wasn’t surprising to see this colt waving the white flag before the quarter pole. Now the connections boldly send him out to run a furlong further…

Conclusions: What are we even doing here? Just why? Oh the cruel, ever-loving humanity! Shark out of the water, we’re gonna need a bigger boat! VIOLENTLY TOSS!

JUST OFF THE PACE:

#18 FURTHER ADO (Gun Runner/ Sky Mesa) 106 Beyer, 105 Brisnet, -2 Thoro-Graph, 6-1

Pros: Owns field high Beyer and Timeform (122) speed figures by a considerable margin for a dominating 11 length win last out in the 9f Blue Grass at Keeneland. The “-2” Thoro-Graph figure earned there was a new career best and also is the fastest in the field as no others have run a negative number (with Thoro-Graph figures, the lower the better). That race was a big step up from the prior effort when finishing a somewhat disappointing 2^nd off the bench in the Tampa Bay Derby behind today’s foe The Puma and now goes third off the lay for Brad Cox, a 34% winning trainer with runners in that stage of the form cycle. Was highly regarded as a two-year old following an eye-popping maiden score around two turns (also at Keeneland), winning by 20 lengths and posting a 98 Beyer and Brisnet speed figure, as well as another negative Thoro-Graph number. Sire Gun Runner was a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner at this distance and descends from the Mr. Prospector sire line, which has won 17 of the last 34 editions of this event.

Cons: While this is one of just three colts entered that has no statistical red flags against, that doesn’t mean there aren’t some reasons for concern here. For one, with both career topping efforts coming at Keeneland, it’s fair to wonder how deep the affinity for that course lies and how specific it is. There are also questions about the quality of the fields he has faced, as not a single beaten opponent made the gate for this event. The closing fractions for the Blue Grass win (:12.95 final 1/8, :37.68 final 3/8) sit a notch below the fastest come home times in the race and the Timeform Late Pace figure of 88 given there is in the lower quadrant amongst these, although the Brisnet Late figure of 101 earned there is plenty formidable. Gets a new rider as regular jockey Irad Ortiz opts for Renegade, although one could do worse than four-time Derby winner John Velazquez as a consolation.

Conclusion: Has a win over the Churchill Downs dirt track as a two-year old against Grade 2 company, so for all the Keeneland horse for the course talk, it isn’t as though this colt hates the Churchill surface. Simply put, the general agreement on the towering speed figures for the Blue Grass would seem to indicate that running back to that figure wins this race somewhat easily. The giant question mark relates to the likelihood of a bounce following that big effort especially as projected close to a hot pace; did the colt peak too soon? Thoro-Graph players will surely have the pattern pegged for a regression, considering the potential for a repeat of the “-1” to “5” move exhibited as a two-year-old. After pairing that “5” in the 2026 debut, a move forward was expected, and we got it, but might it have been better served for the first Saturday in May? How much of an improvement off of that effort can be reasonably expected given the pattern? These are all tough questions. It’s worth noting that even while “bouncing” off the two-year-old number, this colt did so victoriously, and that even a “bounce” back to a “0” Thoro-Graph figure or a 103 Beyer could still be good enough to win this. Simply put, if they all run back to their best races, this is the fastest colt, having run negative Thoro-Graph figures twice while none of the others have done so once. Can be tactically placed, the race shape figures to suit, and Velazquez has won this race near the lead before with the likes of Always Dreaming, Authentic and Medina Spirit (subsequently DQ’d). Drawing wide and outside of the main speed likely provides a beneficial trip; will vie for favoritism and is a definite player for the win as perhaps the only runner that does not need to improve upon current form, but merely needs to reproduce it.

#12 CHIEF WALLABEE (Constitution/ Medaglia d’Oro) 100 Beyer, 103 Brisnet, 3 Thoro-Graph, 8-1

Pros: Lightly raced with plenty of upside and enters off a couple of hard-knocking stakes placings at Gulfstream against salty competition, earning strong triple digit speed figures in both races. The first resulted in a riveting runner-up stretch duel when falling short by a neck to today’s foe Commandment in the 8.5f Fountain of Youth, where the pair earned what were at the time the highest two turn speed figures of the year. Last out when 3^rd in the Florida Derby behind the same winner by just 0.5 lengths, he finished impressively if a tad greenly, covering the final 3/8f in :36.89 and the final 1/8f in :12.37, earning a 117 Brisnet Late Pace figure, which makes this the only colt to post triple digit late pace figures in every career start. Trainer-Jockey combination of Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado won this race last year with Sovereignty off of a similarly deliberate campaign and after losing the Florida Derby. Adds first time blinkers for a trainer that wins (22%) of races after making that equipment change. Appears poised to enjoy the stretch out to 10f based on a strong distance pedigree and put in one of the most impressive works of the week over the track.

Cons: Has not won above the maiden level, and only two colts in the last 40 years have won this race without a prior win against stakes company, which happen to have been two of the biggest upsets over that timespan (Giacomo ’05 at 50-1 and Rich Strike ‘22 at 80-1). The Apollo curse of 1882 was finally broken in 2018 by Justify and again in 2023 by Mage, but Chief Wallabee also did not race as a two-year old and therefore has also made only three career starts (those two Apollo-busters and 2008 winner Big Brown are the only ones to win with such little seasoning). The Triple Crown times they are a changin’, but these are still historical red flags and huge obstacles in terms of a path to victory. Despite Mott’s past success with adding blinkers, going back to 2000 we can’t find a single instance of a colt in this race making this equipment change and subsequently hitting the board, not to mention some notable examples where this move backfired completely (the Palace Malice fiasco of 2013 comes to mind). It’s simply a risky move in a race already full of so many uncertainties. The Thoro-Graph pattern isn’t as appealing as some others, moving from an impressive “4” in debut to a “3” top in the Fountain of Youth but then back to a “4” last out, and will need to move forward to hit the board.

Conclusion: The feeling after the Fountain of Youth was decidedly that this was the colt we wanted at the longer distance next out. Therefore, it came as a bit of a letdown when appearing to lack finishing punch in the lane in a race where points were still needed to make it to the gate here (in contrast to Sovereignty’s Florida Derby defeat last year, which was more clearly used as a tune-up with a Derby spot already secured). Still, he undoubtedly gained needed foundation and racing experience from the effort, galloped out impressively, and with a move forward can become a major player here while being placed tactically enough to stay in close touch with the leaders. Has earned a bit of a wise-guy buzz horse title following that sharp work over the track with these connections, but at a likely higher price than the Florida Derby winner and the one we liked best coming into that race a month ago, this may still very well be the best value play in the race, despite the need to buck a couple of historical trends. Couldn’t have drawn a more perfect post and we’ll trust Mott on the risk/ reward decision regarding the equipment change; dangerous at a price as a win contender if everything falls into place.

#8 SO HAPPY (Runhappy/ Blame) 100 Beyer, 107 Brisnet, 0.25 Thoro-Graph, 15-1

Pros: Battled gamely through the stretch and drew away to win last out at 9f in the Santa Anita Derby, earning speed figures that are highly competitive here including the field’s fastest Brisnet, second fastest Timeform (121), second fastest Thoro-Graph (“0.25”) and tied for the third fastest Beyer. Projects to get a favorable trip in the second flight from a solidly centralized post under the piloting of astute pace jockey and two-time Derby winner Mike Smith, and can be in the mix late off the strength of the 104 Brisnet Late Pace figure earned in that final prep.

Cons: One of three colts in the field without any historical red flags, although the biggest concern is arguably a sprinter-oriented pedigree. The competition out west has been regarded as questionable, and while the Mark Glatt trainee defeated Potente, he did so taking advantage of a perfect trip in last. He backed up badly in the stretch against that one a race prior when finishing 3^rd in the 8.5f San Felipe. The closing fractions in the Santa Anita Derby were average relative to the rest of the field (:12.85 final 1/8, :37.70 final 3/8) and Timeform really did not like that, assigning a Late Pace rating of 80 which ranks among the lowest here.

Conclusion: Both the pedigree and the last two race results create a rather paradoxical juxtaposition. Sire Runhappy was a champion sprinter and his progeny AWD of 6.6 would be the third lowest for the sire of a Derby winner (Mystic Dan and California Chrome were both 6.5). Dam So Cunning was also a winner on dirt between 6f and 7f, but grandsire Super Saver won the Derby and damsire Blame won the Breeders’ Cup Classic, so clearly there is plenty of distance pedigree laden into the not-too-distant bloodlines. It would have been easy enough to categorize the stretch retreat in the San Felipe as a “toss” in regard to the chances of winning this race, but then he showed strong finishing grit in the Santa Anita Derby when stretching out further. The Thoro-Graph pattern appears solid, although after pairing “3.5” numbers in the two races prior, how much of an improvement can be expected from the leap to the new top of “0.25”, and this another obvious bounce candidate? Lots of question marks with this one, but there is enough to like at this price to endorse for underneath spots in exactas and trifectas, if perhaps looming as a bit of an underlay at the moment in the win pool. One thing is for sure, this will be an easy one to root for, with trainer Glatt having lost his wife of 25 years three months ago after a sudden illness.

#14 POTENTE (Into Mischief/ Awesome Again) 95 Beyer, 104 Brisnet, 2.25 Thoro-Graph, 20-1

Pros: “A-Team” starter from the Bob Baffert barn enters off a score in the 8.5f San Felipe two back and a runner-up finish when stretching out to 9f in final prep, having shown ascending Beyer and Brisnet speed figures in each career start. The speed figures in general earned last out compare favorably to the rest of these, as the Brisnet and Timeform numbers are actually both the third highest in the field. The connections are white hot, with Baffert and jockey Juan Hernandez winning at a 41% clip. Holds the highest Timeform Early Pace rating in the field and can be involved closer to the pace if desired.

Cons: Lightly raced sort did not compete as a two-year old and enters off of only three starts this year; both are historical obstacles as mentioned at length. There is not much to suggest that performance will improve as distances increase, as the final fractions for the 9f Santa Derby effort (:13.40 final 1/8, :38.45 final 3/8) are among the slowest in the field and the Thoro-Graph top of “2.25” regressed to “4” on the move from 8.5f to 9f, one of the only contenders to move backwards by that metric as distance increased.

Conclusion: While it is admittedly tough to ever count Baffert out in this event, the reality is that the low quality of the west coast circuit makes it difficult to use any of those races as much of a measuring stick. We’re left to trust those speed figures in a bit of a vacuum and really don’t like the Thoro regression last out coming into this. Enters this race off of a similar pattern and form to ’21 winner Medina Spirit for the same connections, but all of the comparisons being made there seem to forget that one was allowed to win this race while heavily JUICED. Has been working sharply and posted a blazing 5f (:57.4, too fast?) on Sunday, and an improvement from the top Thoro would suggest this Into Mischief colt could be in the mix for the trifecta with another move forward, but ultimately isn’t likely to make our tickets simply due to the inability to demonstrate a strong finishing move.

#7 DANON BOURBON (Maxfield/ Tapit) Beyer N/A, Brisnet N/A, Thoro-Graph N/A, 20-1

Pros: Has done nothing wrong in winning all three career starts in Japan, including a record setting time last out in a stakes win at 9f over the mud. Stoutly bred with a sire line that descends from Mr. Prospector, including a Derby-winning grandsire and strong female stamina influences (damsire AWD of 7.6). Amazingly, sire Maxfield loved this track and retired with an incredible 5 for 5 record in races at Churchill Downs. Finished well enough in the most recent outing to suggest that added ground might be beneficial, covering the final 3/8f in :37.52 and the final 1/8 in :12.57. All three career starts have come at 9f or beyond, including a win at 9.5f. Draws incredibly well and figures to get an ideal trip just behind the leaders.

Cons: Makes first US start in the Derby, which has not yet been a conducive formula for winning it for many that have tried (0 for 50 all-time), and has not yet even contested a race with a left-handed configuration. In addition to having faced questionable competition overseas, there’s a considerable seasoning disadvantage as well here having made only three career starts.

Conclusion: Although arguably untested from a class standpoint, this is the only undefeated colt in the field and is certainly the most preferred of the three international shippers. The ambiguity of the level of competition faced overseas in three victories makes this perhaps the race’s one true wild card and x-factor. For those that prefer empirical evidence to leaps of faith, this one is difficult to wager on with so many unknowns; regretfully there is not much more to say here as there is very little here in terms of hard data, not even Thoro-Graph numbers. Easier to cross our fingers and hope that he’s not a monster; no shipper has been yet so that seems like the higher probability and expected value decision. Could conceivably crash the superfecta at decent odds but will try to beat for the top three spots until one of these makes us pay.

STALKERS:

#6 COMMANDMENT (Into Mischief/ Orb) 101 Beyer, 103 Brisnet, 4 Thoro-Graph, 6-1

Pros: One of three colts in the field without any historical red flags and the only one to post two triple digit Beyer speed figures around two turns. Winner of four in a row for Brad Cox championed the Gulfstream circuit this winter winning the 8.5f Fountain of Youth and 9f Florida Derby. Has a win over the Churchill track in maiden-breaking effort as a two-year-old in second career start, and hasn’t lost since. Owns the field’s top Brisnet Late Pace figure of 121 for the Florida Derby triumph, where he closed into slow fractions up front and came home impressively (12:27 final 1/8f, :36.39 final 3/8f). Versatile runner can race near the lead or close from behind and looks adaptable to the rough racing conditions of the Derby, having won racing wide and after being bumped at the start over the last two races.

Cons: Thoro-Graph does not view either of the Gulfstream preps as favorably as Beyer and Brisnet did, assigning a figure of “4” to both races. The only colts to win this race off of Thoro-Graph numbers that slow are its two greatest modern upsetters, Mine That Bird and Rich Strike. While not a historical red flag mathematically, AWD numbers for sire and damsire of 6.9 and 6.8 sit right on the threshold of concern, as it is rare to see a Derby winner without a number of 7.0 on either side of the pedigree (Smarty Jones 6.8/6.4, California Chrome 6.5/6.5 and Authentic 6.8/6.9 are the lone exceptions). Then again, Into Mischief has sired two Derby winners and damsire Orb won the race itself, so perhaps this stat can be overlooked. The colt will get its third different rider in three races for this, a rare situation indeed coming off of two graded prep wins, with Luis Saez taking the mount after Flavien Prat stays on Emerging Market and Irad Ortiz opts for Renegade.

Conclusion: As these colts collectively stretch out to 10f for the first time in their careers, we are admittedly drawn to data that attempts to quantify their abilities to be finishing well. Aside from the fact that numbers like closing fractions and Brisnet Late Pace figures have shown statistical significance historically in regard to identifying the potential winners, it simply stands to reason that if some mystery lies in regard to how each colt will handle the added furlong of ground, that data of this sort might prove a helpful predictor for filling in that blank. However, races like the Florida Derby require a bit of a deeper investigation than the pure numbers can offer on the surface. When we see a race that goes extremely slow early (1:13 for the opening 3/4f) and fast late, and all of the top three finishers exit that race with the three highest Late Pace figures in the entire field, it is fair to view that data with a degree of skepticism. There’s a twofold argument that while it’s impressive to race behind slow fractions and then close into them to win, the times earned in doing so have to be viewed through the proper lense: in this case, that the field did so little running early that rather obviously all of the most talented runners would have a ton of fuel in the tank late and come home quickly. The Thoro-Graph data seems equally two-sided, as this is the only colt entering the race off of pairing a career top and therefore appears poised to move forward, but when that figure is so far behind some of the other contenders and even lower than/ equal to two of the foes who finished behind him last race with tougher trips, how much improvement can we reasonably expect? The jockey situation seems more of a business decision by the prior riders than a reflection of this colt’s ability, and Saez is certainly a capable replacement. Ultimately one thing is for sure, this gritty, hard-trying type will be a handful in the lane regardless and should certainly be considered a high probability factor to hit the board, and while perhaps worth taking a stand against on the win line on some tickets, would be awfully silly to omit altogether as such a result seems incredibly logical for a charge that has done nothing but win and should be expected to run a career best.

#9 THE PUMA (Essential Quality/ Declaration of War) 100 Beyer, 100 Brisnet, 2.5 Thoro-Graph, 10-1

Pros: Draws a super post in the middle of the field and has back class after running against top company over a four-race campaign this year, bursting onto the scene to break maiden as an upset winner in the 8.5f Tampa Bay Derby two starts back. That form was validated last out when a tough luck runner up in the 9f Florida Derby photo finish, arguably the single strongest spring prep for this event. Earned the best Thoro-Graph figure in that race after a wide trip despite not hitting the wire first, moving from an ”8” to a “4” to a “2.5” with room to improve, and posting career high Beyer and Brisnet speed figures of the triple digit variety. Like all of the top three finishers in that strangely run race, the finishing time for the final 3/8f (:36.79) and solid Brisnet Late Pace figure of 117 look highly competitive here moving out to 10f. Owns the highest AWD composite of the Americans on the strength of the bottom of the pedigree (8.2 damsire AWD, although somewhat turf-laden). Jockey Javier Castellano retains the mount and does have a recent upset Derby win to his name from 2023 with fellow Apollo-crasher Mage, to whom this runner will surely draw comparison for trainer Gustavo Delgado. This animal is not actually a puma, but rather a thoroughbred race horse, and a fantastic looking one at that.

Cons: Did not race as a two-year old, although those foundation concerns are somewhat alleviated by the solid bottom that four races in 2026 would seem to provide, at least from the standpoint of experience. After leading in the stretch late in the Florida Derby and getting nipped on the wire for the win, will the added furlong here be beneficial or detrimental after such a grueling campaign? This is the only runner in the non-AE segment of the field to have raced four times in 2026, and competing that heavily after not racing as a two-year old is certainly jamming a lot in.

Conclusion: Battle tested, having run against all three of the likely favorites, although has only defeated one of them in Further Ado when that one was making first start of the year and likely wasn’t fully cranked. Depending on one’s view of the Florida Derby as a whole however, there is potentially some value to be had here, having run arguably the best race out of that group based on the Thoros and almost certainly a higher price than a winner that got by with a fortunately-timed head bob. And to put a final bow on the bizarre Florida Derby, there are two ways to look at this: Was this really the strongest prep (Beyer and everyone’s eyes think so, Thoro does not), or is it wiser to recall the old adage that a blanket finish often means that they are all collectively a cut below the very best? Squarely in the mix for the underneath spots, and while perhaps the least preferred of the Florida Derby top three by a narrow margin, would not be a surprising winner if able to continue upon current improvement trajectory. However, we can’t play them all on top, and this was the very last cut from the win line.

#15 EMERGING MARKET (Candy Ride/ Empire Maker) 90 Beyer, 102 Brisnet, 2 Thoro-Graph, 15-1

Pros: Last out winner of the Louisiana Derby at 9.5f enters as the only colt to have won beyond 9f on American soil, earning a Brisnet speed figure of 102 for the effort that looms the fourth highest final prep number in the field. The Thoro-Graph pattern here is short but attractive, jumping from a “4” in the maiden score down to a “2” last time out. Strong breeding would seem to confirm an affinity for distance, with a sire from the Mr. Prospector line and out of a solid female family. Flavien Prat stays on the mount for trainer Chad Brown, which feels like coup considering all of the jockey musical chairs.

Cons: Has only two career starts and none as a two-year old and therefore suffers from an extreme relative lack of experience. No colt has ever won the Kentucky Derby with so little foundation. Leonatus is the only colt to win the race with only two career starts, but one of those came at the age of two…and this all happened back in 1883. The six-week layoff presents another historical obstacle as previously discussed. Beyer and Timeform (112) speed figures did not view the Louisiana Derby as favorably as Brisnet did and a move forward from those numbers would be required to earn a spot on the board.

Conclusion: There are historical trends and then there are historical trends. Yeesh. This fella sure does have a lot going against him from that standpoint and is simply hard to endorse based on that alone. Sometimes colts with so little racing experience get into the gate and simply don’t know what to do in such a large field when it opens (Taiba, who was the 6-1 second choice in his third career start here in 2022 and finished 12^th, comes to mind). The talent is clearly there for a colt with plenty of upside, but doesn’t this feel like too much too soon? Wouldn’t necessarily be a huge surprise if this is simply a freak of nature sitting on a career effort, but with so little foundation we’ll look for this to be a mid-pack runner today who figures things out and becomes a divisional player by the fall. Playable on expensive superfecta tickets (which we don’t bet) and extreme tri savers, but no higher.

#10 WONDER DEAN (Dee Majesty/ Wonder Acute) Beyer N/A, Brisnet N/A, 1.5 Thoro-Graph, 30-1

Pros: Winner of the 9.5f UAE Derby last out in Dubai was overlooked in that race off of a 4^th place finish at 8f the start prior. This is one of just two in the field to win beyond the 9f distance, and stretches out now assisted by what looks on paper to be a fine pedigree for distance. The Thoro-Graph figure of “1.5” earned in that effort is plenty competitive with the Americans and shows a sparkling pattern of improvement, moving from “7” to “4” before making that new top last out, which is perhaps the second most attractive pattern in the field behind the favorite.

Cons: Ran down a pacesetter that was falling back badly in most recent win, finishing the final 3/8f in just :40.00. Generally speaking, it is difficult to gauge the level of competition this shipper has faced in Japan and Dubai relative to these. Will have history to overcome off the ship, as no UAE Derby winner has finished better than 3^rd in this race, and only one has ever done that.

Conclusion: Forever Young finally broke the curse of the UAE Derby two years ago, hitting the board for a hard-fought 3rd place finish in a race that he easily could have won with a more favorable trip. That one came back to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic as a four-year old, while 2023 UAE Derby winner Derma Sotogake became the runner-up in that event in the fall of his three-year-old year after an impressive 6^th place finish here as our top selection following a no-chance start. If colts of that quality could muster no better than 3^rd in the Kentucky Derby, it is simply difficult to endorse this type to hit the board, but this is the Derby after all and crazier things have happened as this colt is not without talent and upside.

#2 ALBUS (Yaupon/ Bernardini) 83 Beyer, 91 Brisnet, 6 Thoro-Graph, 50-1

Pros: Upset winner of the 9f Wood Memorial off a maiden score last out closed from seven lengths out of it at the second call. Improving sort shows ascending Brisnet speed figures over all four career starts and looks to take another leap forward as the waters get deeper. Shows no above average attributes statistically relative to a Derby winner.

Cons: The final prep win received universally brutal speed figure assessments, with a career top still well below the red flag cutline and more than two standard deviations away from the mean of an average Derby winner. Benefited from a total pace collapse coming from off the pace to win, but doing so with a final 3/8f of :38.27 and a Brisnet Late Pace of 89 are also well below average for predicting success in the Derby. Will need to work out a trip drawing far inside this heavy field, as for all the negativity surrounding the #1 Post, the #2 Post has actually been worse, with no Derby victories since the 1978 Triple Crown winner Affirmed.

Conclusion: The Wood Memorial has not translated well at all to Derby success in recent years, with the last winner coming in 2003, and with only one finish on the board since. Somewhat fittingly, this was the last edition of the Wood Memorial race and was perhaps its worst field ever, borderline painful to watch. TOSS.

CLOSERS:

#1 RENEGADE (Into Mischief/ Curlin) 98 Beyer, 97 Brisnet, 1 Thoro-Graph, 4-1 Morning Line Favorite

Pros: Morning line favorite won the Irad Ortiz sweepstakes as the country’s best jockey stays on board this charge ahead of the other two colts vying for favoritism, both of whom he also rode to victory in their final prep. Perhaps that decision was made based on the relationship with trainer Todd Pletcher, or maybe it was because of the manner in which this colt stormed home to win the 9f Arkansas Derby last time out, finishing the final 1/8f in a field-best :11.74 and the final 3/8f in a scorching :36.33, earning an impressive Brisnet Late Pace figure of 109. In the 2026 debut the start before that, he was an easy winner at 8.5f well clear of today’s foe The Puma, who ran back well in two subsequent starts winning the Tampa Bay Derby and missing the win in the Florida Derby in a photo. Sire Into Mischief was once viewed as a stallion of sprinters but has since seen two progenies cross the wire first in this race (Authentic in 2020 and Sovereignty last year) and had Mandaloun upgraded to a winner in 2021 following the disqualification of Medina Spirit, giving him the most Derby wins of any sire ever. Out of a Curlin mare, there is plenty of stamina breeding on bottom as well. Enters off an attractive Thoro-Graph pattern that has improved steadily over each of five career starts, moving from “5” to “3” in the season debut and then improving to a strong “1” in the Arkansas Derby, a figure that looms the third highest here and should be right in the mix for the win if another move forward is coming. Has won at three different tracks, the only colt in the field that can make that claim, and now looks to add Churchill Downs to the list. Earns the top Timeform Late Pace designation (116) in the twenty-horse field which that projection pegs as a “fast pace” (see above).

Cons: The giant pink elephant in the room is the unlucky post draw into the cursed #1 hole, where no runner has emerged victorious in this race since Ferdinand in 1986 and where legend has it, brutal trips are the norm.Without intending to split hairs, the speed figures earned in the Arkansas Derby win by no means tower over this field as many morning line favorites have over the years, with the Beyer ranking the 6^th highest, Timeform ranking the 4^th highest and Brisnet ranking just the 9^th highest. The latter in fact is actually a historical red flag by a flared nostril (average Derby winning Brisnet figure since 1992 is 103, standard deviation is 5.5). That didn’t seem to be a super strong edition of that Arkansas Derby either as the even money favorite beat very little in route to victory, however visually impressive it may have been. The other cause for pause is determining how heavily we want to lean on the superior closing fractions and late pace figures angles considering the likelihood of a tough trip from the rail.

Conclusion: While comparing head-to-head results and applying the transitive property in horse racing can be a fool’s errand, it’s still hard to overstate how flattering a 3.75 length win over The Puma looks after that one came back to defeat Further Ado and run eyeball to eyeball with Commandment in the two subsequent starts, considering those will almost certainly be the next two lowest prices in this race. Conducting this comparison clearly establishes the favorite into a higher echelon on form. If we’re viewing the Florida Derby late pace figures with a healthy dose of skepticism and ignoring the one turn number out of the Virginia Derby, then this runner also holds the highest figure by that measure to combine with his superior final fractions. A lengthy word on the post, as ultimately one’s view of its impact is likely the deciding factor in terms of wagering. Taking a trip down memory lane, it is interesting to note that in this space, we have selected rail-drawn closers to win the Kentucky Derby three times in the last 15 years, and they have finished 6^th, 9^th and 5^th. The most recent of those two, Known Agenda in ’21 and Mo Donegal in ’22, were both ridden by Ortiz and trained by Pletcher. Might the experience of having been there in the exact same spot twice before on colts with the same running style prove beneficial for the best jockey in the nation as he seeks his first moment of Derby glory? The feeling here is the same as it was with those runners even if they endured tougher trips than we had envisioned: drawing to the extreme inside does not have to be the death sentence that it seems for a colt that is a closer and prefers to drop back anyway, and can often mean saving ground and running fewer steps than the rest of the field. Lookin’ At Lee closed from the rail to finish 2^nd as recently as 2017 and Sierra Leone (also our top pick that year) closed from the #2 post to finish 2^nd two years ago, for example. Furthermore, the introduction of the new starting gate in 2020 takes some of the pressure off of the inside draw relative to prior years. It’s surprising indeed that there was seemingly no morning line adjustment made after the post draw; we do not anticipate this to be the favorite at post time as many bettors will be scared away by it (DRF’s astute David Aragona sees Renegade at 5-1 and Further Ado the favorite at 9-2), and this runner may even end up offering some value as the odds seem likely to drift up from this estimate. The pace in this race almost always develops more quickly than expected, a side-effect of having such a large field, and putting this all together with our trust in Irad’s gained experience navigating this specific situation and anticipating another step forward based on a superior Thoro pattern makes this the top selection. We’ll try it again with a rail drawn closer that looks to be sitting on a huge race.

#19 GOLDEN TEMPO (Curlin/ Bernardini) 88 Beyer, 100 Brisnet, 2.5 Thoro-Graph, 30-1

Pros: On the board in all four career starts and shows an ascending speed figure progression per both Beyer and Brisnet, the only colt in the field that can make such a claim with four or more starts. Made up ground late to finish 3rd in the Louisiana Derby when stretching all the way out to 9.5f while adding blinkers in most recent start, reaching the triple digit speed figure threshold per Brisnet and taking a significant Thoro-Graph figure leap up to “2.5” off of paired “7s”. Come-from-the-clouds type made up 4.5 lengths from the second call to the wire and finished the final 1/8f in :12.47 and the final 3/8f in :37.11, earning a 100 Brisnet Late Pace figure and a Timeform Late Pace figure of 113, the latter of which is the second highest in this group. Sired by a two-time Horse of the Year/ 3^rd place Derby finisher that descends from Mr. Prospector and out of a mare by the flashy ’06 Preakness winner, this is our favorite pedigree in the entire field.

Cons: Beyer did not view that last race nearly as favorably, assigning a lowly figure of 88 for the effort that while an improvement still looms in the lower quadrant of last out numbers. Running style thus far has tended to leave a lot of work to do late in races. As already discussed at length, the six-week gap between the Louisiana Derby and this race adds a historical obstacle. Reports this week of cracked heels during training raise some cause for concern in terms of soundness.

Conclusion: It’s encouraging that this colt took such a large leap forward last race and appears to be getting better every time the distance gets longer. Fits right there amongst all of the main data points we care about in this race, notably late pace, pedigree and improving speed figures. A similar forward move here could threaten to crash the trifecta at an inflated price and getting him into the number could be the key to a huge score. Primary underneath bomber play.

#11 INCREDIBOLT (Bolt d’Oro/ Awesome Again) 88 Beyer, 100 Brisnet, 6 Thoro-Graph, 20-1

Pros: Earned a field-best 3/8f come home time of :36.03 while winning the 9f Virginia Derby last out, good for an impressive 115 Brisnet Late Pace figure. One of three runners to have previously won at Churchill and has done so twice, having championed the Grade 3 Street Sense as a two-year-old after breaking his maiden there.

Cons: The Virginia Derby was run around a strange one turn configuration and is a somewhat distant memory having been run seven weeks ago, which is an almost unprecedented layoff for a May Derby (although Authentic did win off of seven weeks in the September run Covid Derby in 2020). That track at Colonial Downs was playing extremely fast and those closing figures should probably be viewed with this in mind; Timeform accounts for this and assigned only a 93 Late Pace figure which stands in contrast to the Brisnet number. Ran a complete dud when 6^th in the Holy Bull at 8.5f off the bench two back before rebounding in the final prep for this, but did so beating an extremely weak field and will step up massively against these. There is a lot to be desired in terms of speed figures, with Beyer and Timeform (108) ratings that are well into red flag territory, and a lot of work to do in the Thoro department without a pattern to suggest such improvement will be forthcoming.

Conclusion: Drew pretty beneficially to start in the middle of the field and will likely be moving well late. If you’re willing to draw a line through the Holy Bull race, which was almost too bad to be believed, and depending on how one views the late pace of the Virginia Derby, we would be hard pressed to talk anyone off this colt as a potential superfecta bomber. That said, we lean elsewhere and don’t see him as playable on trifecta tickets or above. This really feels like a colt that will be bet into underlay status off of a fast raw 9f time on a blazing fast track (1:47.3), similar to last year’s Virginia Derby winner American Promise (1:46.2!) who ran an up-the-track 16^th here after being bet down to 12-1 from a 30-1 morning line.

#22: OCELLI (Connect/ Scat Daddy) 81 Beyer, 92 Brisnet, 50-1

Pros: Son of Connect, who was sired by the great Curlin and hails from the Mr. Prospector sire line, drew into the field late with the scratch of Fulleffort on the points earned from a 3^rd place finish in the 9f Wood Memorial last out.

Cons: The only true maiden in the field, having never won a race in six career attempts, with only one 2^nd place finish and two races off the board. That includes two back when 6^th behind today’s foe Incredibolt in the 9f Virginia Derby, and actually backed up badly in that race, surrendering six lengths in the stretch and falling from 3^rd to 6^th. No runner has broken its maiden in this race since Brokers Tip in 1933 and this colt arguably exits the two weakest preps without having made any real impact to win them. The Beyer earned last out was a career high but is still the lowest figure in the field. Has raced four times already in 2024 and this spot is asking a lot.

Conclusion: We once taunted an elderly hillbilly woman in the infield of the 2007 Kentucky Derby. She had confidently wagered on Scat Daddy, this colt’s damsire, and we had assured her that he had no shot. That colt ran across the wire 18^th as our selection Street Sense won the race, and a full blown Mutombo-style finger-wagging was delivered. It would be a surprise to see this colt finish any better than that, but he should at least continue running late. We’re running out of superlatives for some of these AEs; just please TOSS.

Picks (ML Odds with current live odds in parentheses):

Renegade 4-1 (5-1)
Further Ado 6-1 (6-1)
Chief Wallabee 8-1 (8-1)
Commandent 6-1 (6-1)
The Puma 10-1 (9-1)
So Happy 15-1 (6-1)
Golden Tempo 30-1 (33-1)
Emerging Market 15-1 (10-1)
Danon Bourbon 20-1 (15-1)
Potente 22-1 (24-1)
Wonder Dean 30-1 (22-1)
Incredibolt 20-1 (25-1)
Pavlovian 20-1 (49-1)
Six Speed 50-1 (36-1)
Albus 30-1 (49-1)
Intrepido 50-1 (50-1)
Litmus Test 50-1 (32-1)
Ocelli 50-1 (99-1)
Robusta 50-1 (99-1)
Great White 50-1 (28-1)

HOW TO BET $100 ON THE KENTUCKY DERBY:

$50 Win: Renegade

$0.50 Main Trifecta: Renegade, Further Ado/ Renegade, Further Ado, Chief Wallabee, Commandment, The Puma, So Happy, Golden Tempo/ Renegade, Further Ado, Chief Wallabee, Commandment, The Puma, So Happy, Golden Tempo ($30)

$0.50 Saver Trifecta: Chief Wallabee, Commandment/ Renegade, Further Ado, Chief Wallabee, Commandment/ Renegade, Further Ado, Chief Wallabee, Commandment, The Puma ($9)

$0.50 Saver Trifecta: Chief Wallabee, Commandment/ The Puma/ Renegade ($1)

$1 Exacta Key: Renegade, Further Ado/ Renegade, Further Ado, Chief Wallabee, Commandment, The Puma ($8)

$1 Exacta Box: Renegade, Further Ado ($2)

USE IN MULTI-RACE WAGERS: Renegade, Further Ado, Chief Wallabee, Commandment

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