Kentucky Derby 2020 Picks, Analysis and Wagering Strategy

A strange year deserves a strange race, and we certainly have that here. Running the Kentucky Derby in September certainly changes a lot of things. Most notably, we lost at least a half dozen solid colts along the way (two this week) that could have enhanced the quality of this field considerably. As a result, we will see the heaviest favorite of my lifetime, and a relatively short field of 16.

From a wagering standpoint, this leads to a dramatic change in strategy, unless you have a good reason to try to beat Tiz The Law completely, which we do not. For the first time ever, we won’t be making any outright or exacta wagers on the Kentucky Derby, and will concentrate solely on nailing the trifecta and superfecta, the latter of which is now a $0.10 minimum. That leads to more economic wagering opportunities for the general public, but also likely limits the absolute financial windfall that used to result from the $1 minimum bet.

As always, the colts are organized by running style, with sire and damsire listed along with top speed figures around two turns. Good luck to everyone playing this incredibly peculiar horse race. 


#18 AUTHENTIC (Into Mischief/ Mr. Greeley), 8-1

100 Beyer, 107 Brisnet, 121 Timeform

Pros: Speedy and talented need-the-lead type figures to be the one they all have to catch. Bob Baffert trainee was impressive out west this winter, winning the 8f Sham and 8.5f San Felipe wire to wire without being challenged. In his last, he emerged victorious at 9f in his second try at the distance, holding on to win the Haskell while posting impressive career best speed figures, and his second consecutive triple digit Brisnet figure. Has accumulated an impressive resume, winning four of five starts and finishing second in the other. The scratches of Art Collector and King Guillermo helped his cause, as the pace up front now figures to be pretty moderate by Derby standards.

Cons: The seven-week layoff since the Haskell is a historical obstacle to overcome, although that may mean less in 2020 since this race is being run in September. His breeding suggests that this distance may be further than he wants to go, as he is one of just three colts in the field that has neither a sire or damsire Average Winning Distance (AWD) above 7.0 (6.8/6.9). The eye test would seem to confirm that, as he was all out while shortening strides to hold off today’s foe NY Traffic in his Haskell win, where he finished the final 3/8 in a slow :38.95. Two races back, rival Honor AP caught him easily coming home at 9f. The draw didn’t do him any favors either, as he figures to lose at least some ground clearing the field to get to the lead out of the widest post of all. 

Conclusion: He figures to lead this field a long way, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario where he is able to hold off NY Traffic or Honor AP going a longer distance out of a wider post while facing more pace pressure, let alone to envision him holding off the favorite. The feeling here is that he will be in need of an oxygen mask over the final furlong, and that his considerable accomplishments and connections may lead him to underlay status in the wagering. Although Audible outran his pedigree, a son of Into Mischief is always a play against to hit the board at 10f in our eyes. In a race that looks chalky to begin with, we prefer others underneath the logical players to spice up exotics, and the main value in the race may lie within trying to keep the third choice off the board entirely. If he finishes in the top three, we likely won’t cash a single ticket. 

#15 NY TRAFFIC (Cross Traffic/ Graeme Hall), 20-1

100 Beyer, 107 Brisnet, 120 Timeform

Pros: Hard-trier has yet to break through against graded company but hasn’t missed the board in four tries in his graded starts; he seems to always be right there at the end. He took a noticeable step forward figure-wise when closing hard to nearly win the 9f Haskell in his last. While his pedigree doesn’t look well-suited to this distance from an AWD standpoint, he does descend from the Mr. Prospector sire line, which has won 15 of the last 28 runnings of this race. Aggressive rider Paco Lopez gets the mount and can have this gray colt in contention early. 

Cons: As with all runners exiting the Haskell, he will have to hurdle the 7-week layoff. As mentioned above, although he has appeared to be gaining ground in recent races, his sire/ damsire AWD numbers of 6.9 and 6.8 respectively don’t exactly scream distance pedigree, and his Tomlison Distance Rating is the third lowest in the field (253). Perhaps it was more Authentic backing up than it was NY Traffic closing in the Haskell, as his 9f come home time of :38.75 ranks as one of the slowest in the field. 

Conclusion: We don’t view him as a win candidate, but another step forward from his last puts this gritty throwback type right in the mix to hit the board. He’s intriguing as an underneath candidate at a price considering how consistent he has been, continuing to outrun his odds; has upside. 

#4 STORM THE COURT (Court Vision/ Tejano Run), 50-1

90 Beyer, 95 Brisnet, 113 Timeform

Pros: The upset winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at 46-1 descends from the Mr. Prospector sire line. Entering the Derby off of a turf prep is an interesting angle for trainer Peter Eurton, who wins with 27% if his runners after that move.  

Cons: Winless in five 2020 starts, this year hasn’t gone nearly as well for the son of Court Vision. His closing fractions and late pace figures have been consistently below par if not the worst in the field, and his speed figures are in the bottom tier of the field as well, all in decline since his stunning Breeders’ Cup score. 

Conclusion:The improvement from two the three years old simply hasn’t been there. This will be a tough spot to try to bounce back starting inside the likely speed. Toss.


#16 HONOR AP (Honor Code/ Wild Rush), 5-1

102 Beyer, 108 Brisnet, 123 Timeform

Pros: The move he made when overtaking Authentic on the final turn to win the 9f Santa Anita Derby is the type of move Derby wins are made of. The son of Honor Code posted triple digit Brisnet E1, E2 and LP figures in that race (101/108/102), the only colt in the field to accomplish that feat in a race this year. He’s also the only colt to enter the race off of back-to-back triple digit Brisnet Late Pace figures. While he couldn’t quite catch today’s foe Thousand Words in his last, the 8.5f Shared Belief Stakes, he made up 1.25 lengths in the stretch to just miss after receiving a strange three wide ride following a bad bump in a short field that day at a distance that was way short of ideal. That race graded out well in terms of speed figures and Late Pace (103) nevertheless. In five career starts, he has never finished worse than 2nd. Jockey Mike Smith opted for this mount over Authentic, has won this race twice and knows how to put his colt in the right spot. 

Cons: There aren’t any immediate red flags, but while visually impressive, it would have been nice to have seen him finish his final 3/8 of the Santa Anita Derby faster than :37.50. Also, a ridgling has never won the Kentucky Derby. 

Conclusion: Supporters will likely benefit in terms of odds from the runner-up finish in his last (a race that screamed “tune-up” in every way to our eyes), as often bettors are reluctant to back a colt who didn’t win his last prep, especially in a race with such a heavy favorite. If that’s the case, he looms a likely overlay, and appears not only the most likely upsetter in our view, but also the only other truly logical winner outside of the heavy favorite. He’s clearly been pointed toward this race and has been working well at Del Mar, and will be on top of our tickets with equal weight as the favorite- this is an important wagering distinction.

#10 THOUSAND WORDS (Pioneer of the Nile/ Pomeroy), 15-1

104 Beyer, 104 Brisnet, 123 Timeform

Pros: Bob Baffert trainee appeared left for dead in the spring after a couple of head-scratching no-shows following his 8.5f Robert B. Lewis score, but has bounced back nicely this summer, culminating in a wire-to-wire win over today’s foe Honor AP in the 8.5f Shared Belief. The 104 Beyer earned there is the field’s second best, and the Brisnet Late Pace figure of 103 earned at 8.5f sheds some forgiveness onto the 86 assigned for his 2ndplace finish in his prior race, the 9f Los Alimitos Derby. That number continues to look a bit strange considering he came home in an impressive :36.86 for the final 3/8. Picking up Flourent Geroux in this spot should only help. 

Cons: While sire Pioneer of the Nile finished 2ndin this race and produced Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, it takes some imagination to envision a Derby winner coming out of a Pomeroy mare (6.0 AWD, by far the lowest in the field, and a dangerously low Tomlinson Distance Rating of 263). The slower Late Pace Figure at the longer distance leads us to wonder whether the same late kick can be reproduced at 10f. He has yet to win a race beyond 8.5f and one could argue he got away with a pretty easy trip when winning his last. 

Conclusion: Pedigree concerns aside, it’s hard to deny that he’s coming into this race in the best form of his career, and Baffert is dangerous to ignore third off the lay, where he wins with 22% of his starters. Running style seems right given the likely pace scenario and the fact that it would seem unlikely for Baffert to call for a suicidal pace duel between his only two runners, and therefore has every right to be get first run on the leaders at the end based on figures and his perfect post draw. A must use underneath but difficult to support on top. 

#13 ATTACHMENT RATE (Hard Spun/ Afleet Alex), 50-1

95 Beyer, 98 Brisnet, 120 Timeform

Pros: Enters this race off earning career high speed figures when 2ndto Art Collector when beaten only 3.25 lengths in the 9f Ellis Park Derby, a 5 length improvement from the 5thplace finish behind that one just prior in the 9f Blue Grass. The Timeform figure earned last out is tied for the fifth best in the field, so there is some value at these likely inflated morning line odds even if that race is simply repeated. Has shown improving numbers over his last three races despite being a bit dirtied up after enduring tough trips. From a pedigree standpoint, he’s well bred on top and bottom to handle the Derby distance, as the familiar names above clearly indicate, and has the highest Tomlinson Distance Rating in the field (403). 

Cons: Despite a couple of stakes placings, he’s still winless outside of his maiden score, which came at 8f over a sloppy track back in February. As such, this represents a massive class leap, and even with an improved effort last time out, his speed figures are still a bit of a red flag, especially in the Beyer department. There’s a lingering concern that his closing fractions (:37.87 and :38:53 final 3/8 in two tries, without breaking :13.0 for the final 1/8) simply haven’t matched his potential.

Conclusion: There seems to be a quiet confidence coming out of the Dale Romans barn as the wise-guy steam continues to build. It’s notable that he does stand to get a decent enough trip being more tactically placed behind the speed than the longshot closers will be, and could be making up some ground late, but this feels more like a middle of the pack finisher unless a big step forward is coming. Endorsable for the bottom spot in narrow superfectas, however. 

#11 NECKER ISLAND (Hard Spun/ Mr. Greeley), 50-1

87 Beyer, 98 Brisnet, 114 Timeform

Pros: Sire Hard Spun finished 2ndin this race and was tough as nails, and he does have two wins over the Churchill Downs dirt track. That pedigree carries into a strong Tomlinson Distance Rating (373), the second highest in the field. 

Cons: Everything else- starting with the fact that in his last four races, he’s lost to six of these foes by a combined 28 lengths. Both his speed figures and Late Pace figures lag far behind what will be necessary to compete here. The top Beyer specifically is the second lowest in the field. 

Conclusion: This is an ambitious spot to say the least, considering he would need to turn tables on longshots like Attachment Rate and Major Fed, not to mention having to overcome the average of 9 lengths he finished behind Art Collector (who scratched out of this race but would have been the second choice) in his last two starts against that one. Toss. 

#7 MONEY MOVES (Candy Ride/ Proud Citizen), 30-1

98 Beyer, 100 Brisnet

Pros: In theory, son of Candy Ride (who derives from the Mr. Prospector sire line and exceled at 10f) shouldn’t have any problem getting the distance, although this is quite a spot to be making his first start in stakes company. Speed figures and Late Pace figures are middle of the pack against these, so it’s possible a step forward could put him in the mix as figs are in ascension, though quite spread apart over three races. Todd Pletcher opted to run him here instead of Dr. Post, who would have seemed to have been live.

Cons: Very lightly raced with only three career starts, and unraced as a two-year-old. This will be a huge step up in class considering he exits a loss in an optional claiming race while his competitors have been racing in stakes company since the spring. Perhaps the dam line is bringing down the stamina a bit, as the Tomlinson Distance Rating (258) is the fourth lowest in the field.

Conclusion: It’s hard to have much confidence in either of the two runners in this race without any actual prep points- that’s never happened during the points era. The talent is there for the Pletcher trainee, but these look like awfully deep waters far too soon with only one race over the last four months. 


#17 TIZ THE LAW (Constitution/ Tiznow), 3-5

109 Beyer, 115 Brisnet, 126 Timeform

Pros: Undefeated in four 2020 starts and will enter the race as perhaps the heaviest favorite in modern history for good reason. He’s simply done nothing wrong during this flawless campaign, posting triple digit Beyer and Brisnet figures in four consecutive races. He improved even more when stretching out and winning the Travers in a dominating romp last out and as a result enters the Derby as a rare 10f winner, boasting speed figures that tower over the field and a strong Brisnet Late Pace figure of 104. When winning the 9f Belmont Stakes prior to that, he came home in a sharp :36.29 over the final 3/8 while under wraps. 

Cons: It’s admittedly difficult to find much to knock, but one could point to his only career loss coming at Churchill Downs as a two-year-old. That came over a sloppy track, of course. Also, no colt has ever won this race out of Post Position #17, but there’s nothing specific about that post draw that should hurt his chances in terms of running style (and with all of the scratches he is actually running out of #15). The tremendous figures earned in the Travers may lead some to ponder whether a bounce is in order, but the truth is, he can probably regress from that effort and still win the race.

Conclusion: An absolute monster in this spot in terms of back class and current form. The scary thing is that he seems to be thriving and could potentially take a step forward from his last, in which case the rest of the field is quite simply running for very distant second place honors. The fact that he has already run and won at the distance, and that it was the best race of his life, gives him a decisive edge against this field. He’s been our pick since last fall and nothing has changed in 2020 to change that position; the tricky part will be trying to leverage that opinion into any sort of money-making opportunity given he will almost certainly be odds-on in the wagering- the first odds-on favorite since Arazi in 1992. 

#5 MAJOR FED (Ghostzapper/ Smart Strike), 50-1

87 Beyer, 99 Brisnet, 109 Timeform

Pros: Very well-bred to get the distance with a high Tomlinson Distance Rating (353) and has demonstrated the ability to make strong late moves. He was coming hard at the end of the 9.5f Louisiana Derby, making up 1.75 lengths in the stretch to finish 4th, and finished the final 1/8 in :12.53 last out when 2ndin the Indiana Derby. Both efforts earned Brisnet Late Pace figures of 99. He’s acclimated well to the Churchill track, posting two bullet works. 

Cons: Has a knack for finding trouble, as one could argue that he’s had rough trips in all of his last four races. At some point this becomes less of an excuse than a personality trait. The speed figures lag well behind the bulk of the field, and he’s still just a maiden winner over six career starts. There’s also an eight-week layoff since the Indiana Derby, a race in which he bested today’s foe and hopeless longshot Necker Island by only a half a length. The winner of that race, Shared Sense, didn’t flatter any of the colts he beat that day when 5thby 10 lengths next out in the Ellis Park Derby. 

Conclusion: Figures to get a chance at a better trip from this post, but we’re not sure the turn of foot is there to make an impact late. Not a toss, but another one we view as finishing somewhere mid-pack with a lot of luck needed to make an impact towards hitting the superfecta.

#8 SOUTH BEND (Algorithms/ Old Trieste), 50-1

97 Beyer, 105 Brisnet, 116 Timeform

Pros: Boasts two wins over the track during his two-year-old campaign, in which he won the first three starts of his career. Finished a non-threatening 4thbehind the favorite in the 10f Travers Stakes after switching over to the Bill Mott barn but navigated the distance, missed hitting the board by only two lengths, and earned a big Brisnet fig. Two back, he gobbled up 3.5 lengths in the stretch to just miss the win in the 9f Ohio Derby, earning a solid Brisnet Late Pace Figure of 100 while blowing by today’s foe Storm The Court. 

Cons: Winless in eight starts this year, although five of those have come on the turf, and figs have been better since switching back to dirt. Connections entered him in the final hour before the draw, so he hasn’t been pointed to this. He had a perfect trip in the Travers and still couldn’t get into the top three. Tomlinson Distance Rating (224) is the lowest in the field. 

Conclusion: Attributes in comparison to this field seem pretty average and it’s fair to wonder if 10f is ideal. Still, grinding type is likely to be completely overlooked and could be passing horses late, is the only one to have won on this track and also tested the 10f distance, and if we like Max Player we have to like him at least a little bit, having finished only 2 lengths behind that one at 10f; has foundation and upside and could crash the superfecta, but that’s the likely ceiling. 

#14 WINNING IMPRESSION (Paynter/ Unbridled’s Song), 50-1

82 Beyer, 91 Brisnet, 110 Timeform

Pros: Trainer Dallas Stewart has a bit of a knack for blowing up the exotics in this race, as longshots like Golden Soul and Commanding Curve have finished 2ndover the last eight years at over 30-1. Stewart wins with 29% of his starters third off the lay (this may very well fall into the other 71%). 

Cons: His speed figures across the board are the lowest in the field. In three straight 9f races coming into this, he hasn’t bested a 92 Brisnet Late Pace figure, and hasn’t managed to hit the board, finishing a combined 33 lengths behind the winner while showing declining numbers. The 7thplace finish in the final prep is tied for the worst last out performance coming into this, and he was 7thin the race before that as well. 

Conclusion: On paper and based on current form, this is the easiest toss in the field. A win here would be ten times more stunning than Mine That Bird was. 


#2 MAX PLAYER (Honor Code/ Not For Love), 30-1

99 Beyer, 107 Brisnet, 118 Timeform

Pros: Wasn’t disgraced when 3rdbehind favored Tiz The Law in the 10f Travers and 9f Belmont Stakes, posting triple digit Brisnet speed figures in each of his two most recent starts, one of only four colts in the field that can claim that. Before that, he won the 9f Withers, and is amazingly one of just four colts in the field to have won at 9f or further on a fast track. Appears perhaps the strongest closer in the field off of his scintillating :11.82 final 1/8 in the Belmont Stakes, the only sub-12 second final 1/8 split in the field at 9f, and his final 3/8 split of :36.24 is also the fastest in the field. Switches from Linda Rice to the Steve Asmussen barn leading up to this, where the workout pattern has been sharper, and shows ascending speed figures in all five career starts. Should be able to take back and save ground on the rail for one big late run, and the above average Tomlinson Distance Rating (315) confirms that this trip is in his wheelhouse. 

Cons: There aren’t any red flags here from a historical standpoint, but obviously having to make up between 5 and 7.5 lengths against the favorite will take some doing, even if there appears to be upside trajectory and he did endure wide trips in those last two races. If we want to nit-pick, the bottom side of the pedigree leaves a bit to be desired from a stamina standpoint (6.5 damsire AWD ranks as the second lowest in the field). Trainer Rice hinted at passing the Derby because she believed the colt was tired, leading connections to switch to Asmussen. 

Conclusion: Stands every chance to take a step forward following his current trajectory and with the barn switch, and has settled in well at Churchill with some solid breezes over the surface. Looks like a sneaky type that should get more pace to run at than he has in the last two races, and could be passing tired horses late to blow up the exacta. A must-use in the 2ndand 3rdspots as a value play in all exotic wagers, although figures to be bet down considerably from these morning line odds, which are an egregious miss.  

#12 SOLE VOLANTE (Karakontie/ Kingmambo), 30-1

96 Beyer, 102 Brisnet, 113 Timeform

Pros: A tale of two seasons, as the year began on a promising note with two triple digit Brisnet Late Pace figures at 8.5f (dual 108s, the highest single figure in the field) around two turns over the winter, one of only three colts in the field to achieve that feat, including a late running win in the 8.5f Sam Davis. The breeding is a bit turf-oriented but is absolutely loaded with stamina influences, especially on the dam side, and this race has been kind to turf pedigrees over the years. 

Cons: Connections either opted for or were forced into a very unorthodox racing regimen leading up to this race, as they shipped and entered the 9f Belmont Stakes in June off a ten-day layoff and haven’t raced since then. Combined with the resulting 11-week layoff this colt now faces, that race was almost too bad to be believed (a well off-the-board 6th), and was a serious regression from his prior form in terms of figures (83 Brisnet Late Pace following back to back 108s at 8.5f). Even if the Belmont is to be forgiven based on the perplexing timing, his top speed figures before it are still middling at best against this competition, and it bears mention that even when he appeared to be in top form, the colts he was beating weren’t of this quality; he’s finished ahead of just one colt in this entire field (South Bend), and that was at 8f in January.

Conclusion: It’s hard to know what to expect here. We never like to see a colt enter the Derby off of such a dull and dismal effort, but there’s reason to believe that race wasn’t a great spot for him considering the quick turnaround. The layoff adds an extra layer of uncertainty- it would have been nice to see him get a solid 9f prep under his belt after the Belmont fiasco. The feeling here is that this colt has been mismanaged leading up to this and is unlikely to regain his winter form in this spot as a result, but given his explosive closing style and pedigree, isn’t impossible on the bottom of trifecta and superfecta wagers; a likely overlay, generally speaking. 

#3 ENFORCEABLE (Tapit/ Dixie Union), 30-1

91 Beyer, 95 Brisnet, 115 Timeform

Pros: Closed ground with authority when 2ndin the 9f Risen Star in February, earning an impressive 102 Brisnet Late Pace figure after covering the final 1/8 in :12.48. In races since then, he’s had some excuse by falling into bad trips, although that is often the case with these come-from-the-clouds types. He could reverse that trend and fall into a pretty nice setup here saving ground on the rail.

Cons: From a speed figure standpoint, he hasn’t improved at all, leveling out in the low 90s per Beyer and in the mid 90s per Brisnet- what you see is what you get, and those numbers won’t be competitive today. He’ll also race off an eight-week layoff since a 4thplace finish in the 9f Blue Grass, where he failed to reproduce the same closing kick demonstrated in the Risen Star. He has a bad habit of breaking rather slowly from the gate. 

Conclusion: Considering the combination of a leap in figures and racing luck needed to make an impact here, we’ll be looking elsewhere for closing types. He just seems like more of a plodder that hasn’t shown the consistent ability to explode down the stretch, and seems to have leveled off; upside is lacking with this one. Several analysts have tabbed him for the show spot and may gain steam in that spot in exotics; we will include only on the bottom of the superfecta.

#9 MR. BIG NEWS (Giant’s Causeway/ Galileo), 50-1

88 Beyer, 96 Brisnet, 113 Timeform

Pros: Big time pedigree for this distance, with by far the highest AWD numbers in the field for both sire and damsire (8.1/10.4), and the fourth highest Tomlinson Distance Rating (334). Won impressively from off the pace two back in the sloppy Oaklawn Stakes at 9f, and would certainly move up on an off track if the forecast changes. 

Cons: Though visually impressive, he didn’t earn a very strong Brisnet Late Pace figure for the Oaklawn effort (82), and the races before and after it on fast tracks weren’t impressive at all, finishing well off the board and easily beaten by some of today’s foes including Major Fed, NY Traffic, Enforceable and Attachment Rate. He didn’t break his maiden until this year, losing three times as a two-year-old, and runs off of an eight-week layoff since the Blue Grass. 

Conclusion: A late entry to the field, and probably had some excuses for the sub-par showing in the Blue Grass, having stumbled at the start. However, the combination of a 6thplace finish in a final prep with the fact that connections had aimed for a turf race rather than this spot is concerning. There are a lot of closers that will be moving late, but this one may be spinning his wheels if it doesn’t come up sloppy. 


  1. Tiz The Law
  2. Honor AP
  3. Max Player
  4. Thousand Words
  5. NY Traffic
  6. Sole Volante
  7. Authentic
  8. South Bend
  9. Attachment Rate
  10. Enforceable
  11. Major Fed
  12. Money Moves
  13. Storm The Court
  14. Necker Island
  15. Mr. Big News
  16. Winning Impression


$2 Trifecta:

Tiz The Law, Honor AP/ 

Tiz The Law, Honor AP/ 

Max Player, Thousand Words, NY Traffic, Sole Volante ($16)

$1 Trifecta: 

Tiz The Law, Honor AP/ 

Tiz The Law, Honor AP, Max Player, Thousand Words/ 

Tiz The Law, Honor AP, Max Player, Thousand Words, NY Traffic, Sole Volante ($24)

$1 Trifecta: 

Tiz The Law, Honor AP/ 

Tiz The Law, Honor AP, Max Player, Thousand Words/ 

Tiz The Law, Honor AP, Max Player, Thousand Words, NY Traffic ($18)

$1 Trifecta:

Tiz The Law, Honor AP/ 

Tiz The Law, Honor AP, Max Player/

Tiz The Law, Honor AP, Max Player, Thousand Words, NY Traffic ($12)

$1 Trifecta:

Tiz The Law, Honor AP/ 

NY Traffic/

Tiz The Law, Honor AP, Max Player, Thousand Words ($6)

$0.20 Superfecta: 

Tiz The Law, Honor AP/ 

Tiz The Law, Honor AP, Max Player, Thousand Words/ 

Tiz The Law, Honor AP, Max Player, Thousand Words, NY Traffic/

Tiz The Law, Honor AP, Max Player, Thousand Words, NY Traffic, Sole Volante, Authentic, South Bend, Attachment Rate, Enforceable ($25.20)

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