Arlington Million Day Grade 1 Stakes Pick 3 Analysis

We’ve decided to focus on the Pick 3 that contains the three Grade 1 races to be run at Arlington on Saturday, one of the very best racing days of the year. Although our Pick 4 scores in 2013 and 2016 remain among our best wagering memories ever, the death of the American St. Leger marathon race has changed the format at the track on Million Day. That was a race where we would often find a single and was run before these three races. Now, the track concludes the all stakes Pick 4 with the Pucker Up, a difficult race to handicap that doesn’t even go off until 6:55 pm, and we have a 6:29 train to catch back to the city.

Below are horse by horse breakdowns for each of the Grade 1 races. To help compare European form where applicable, Racing Post Ratings (RPR) are included, along with top Beyer and Brisnet speed figures within the past year. (All figures reflect races run within a furlong of the distance being contested).

Sistercharlie The Diana4 credit elsa

9- Beverly D, 9.5f, 4:53

1) Fleeting (5-2) (113 RPR)-Three-year old Aidan O’Brien trainee makes her stateside debut and cuts back here after racing her last three at 12f. O’Brien has never won this race and despite a six pound weight break, a sophomore has only emerged victorious in the Beverly D on one occasion, when Euro Charline scored a 10-1 upset in 2014. Group 2 winner at 8f and Group 1 placed at 12f certainly fits here on class and appears well aimed, but may be compromised a bit by the pace scenario and firmer ground. She gets first time Lasix but hasn’t made the winner’s circle since last September, five starts back.

2) Awesometank (8-1) (107 RPR)-Euro shipper gets first time Lasix and stretches out to this distance for the first time as she makes her inaugural stateside start. Group 3 placed in Britain, she will need to step up her game to make an impact in this field, but could find a cozy spot on the rail behind a likely slow pace with Arlington specialist Florent Geroux in the irons; usable on the bottom of the trifecta.

3) Competitionofideas (6-1) (114 RPR, 96 Beyer, 96 Brisnet)-The “other Chad” in this race has had a bit of a case of seconditis this year, but has managed to place in all three of her graded starts this year, finishing less than half a length behind the highly regarded Homerique in two of those after wide trips. Her last win came in the Grade 1 American Oaks run at 10f, so she could appreciate stretching out from the 9f distance of her last, where she was also beaten just a neck after chasing a crawling pace in a small field. Consistent type has missed the board only once in ten career starts and offers value in this spot as Javier Castellano, who has won with her twice before, regains the mount.

4) Oh So Terrible (30-1) (101 RPR, 82 Brisnet)-Daughter of Cape Blanco (who won the Million) will attempt this class leap again after finishing 8thof 9 a year ago and is difficult to support in this spot having never won a graded race; appears aptly named as she was well off the board in the Grade 3 Modesty, the local prep for this race.

5) Remember Daisy (30-1) (84 Brisnet)-Finished 4thin the Modesty, which doesn’t bode well for her chances to hit the board her against tougher company. Listed stakes type may be better suited to races shorter than this one.

6) Magic Wand (3-1) (114 RPR, 103 Beyer, 103 Brisnet)-She was our pick to win the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf on a lone speed angle, and the race played out exactly as we predicted, as she tracked a length off an absolutely crawling pace of :51.4 and 1:18.2 and still faded to 4thwith no excuses as today’s favorite gobbled her up in the lane. She’s cross-entered in the Million and expects to go there so we will treat her as such, and a defection back to this race wouldn’t be a demonstration of much confidence by the connections, although she certainly fits on class, form and figures and may appreciate the cutback in distance as well as the firmer turf course.

7) Sistercharlie (8-5) (118 RPR, 105 Beyer, 103 Brisnet)- Defending champion of the division will attempt to become the first ever to win the Beverly D twice and will deservingly be a heavy favorite in this spot second off the lay following an impressive win in the Grade 1 Diana in her last off an eight month layoff. Chad Brown has won the last four editions of this race and wins with 24% of his entrants second off the lay. Strong closer should appreciate the added ground here and should be expected to improve off her last; a worthy single considering how easily she closed into a slow pace in last year’s race, and the fact that she holds a seemingly insurmountable BRIS Prime Power advantage against her American foes (+35.5).

8) Thais (20-1) (108 RPR, 87 Brisnet)-The Chad Brown rabbit nearly stole this race on the lead last year as she got away with fractions of :50.2 and 1:15.1, which were slow enough to allow her to hang on for 3rdplace and blow up the trifecta at nearly 50-1 odds. A similar scenario isn’t impossible here, especially if Magic Wand defects as expected, which would leave her the only confirmed speed in a small field. She went out far too quickly when playing a similar role in her last, setting a pace about 5 seconds (25 lengths) faster for her stablemate to close into, and faded badly.

Picks:

  1. Sistercharlie 8-5
  2. Competitionofideas 6-1
  3. Fleeting 5-2
  4. Thais 20-1

10- Secretariat, 8f, 5:28

1) Clint Maroon (20-1) (98 RPR, 87 Beyer, 87 Brisnet)-After stumbling at the start, son of Oasis Dream finished 4th, beaten 4 lengths at this distance behind today’s favorite in his last. He’s one of just two in the field to have wired a race at this distance and could have a say in the early pace while saving ground on the rail, but will have tables to turn and speed figures to improve upon; pass.

2) Van Beethoven (8-1) (105 RPR)-Has missed the board in all five 2019 starts across the pond without ever looking like a contender, but a closer look at his form and speed figures indicates he may benefit from a drop in class in this spot, as he’s raced his last three against Group 1 foes. Aidan O’Brien has dominated this race, and no other runner has duplicated three RPR figures of 104 or higher at 8f. Gets first time Lasix and merits a look as a potential overlay for the top spot, and is a must use on the bottoms of exotics.

3) Never No More (6-1) (109 RPR)-Winner of both his 2019 starts in Handicap company enters with some question marks off a four month layoff, but class jump concerns are somewhat diffused by the fact that the colt he dispatched in his last, Madhmoon, ran back to a runner-up finish in the Group 1 Epsom Derby at 12f. Field high RPRs of 108 and 109 both came at 7f and over soft turf; it bears mention he’s never run beyond that distance or on turf rated better than yielding which lingers as the main concern, but Aidan O’Brien charge figures to be running late for a piece based on his previous racing style and adds first time Lasix to boot. He fired a win the last time after racing off a similar layoff and must be feared in this spot with a strong damsire stamina pedigree to fall back on (8.8 AWD) and Ryan Moore retaining the mount.

4) The Last Zip (6-1) (80 Beyer, 89 Brisnet)-Has finished no worse than 2ndin five of his six career starts, including a dead-heat runner up effort in the American Derby, the local prep for this race at a tad longer distance of 8.5f. He wired the race before that to break his maiden in his fifth try, and could be the one to catch here on the lead as he cuts back. Of the local prep entrants we prefer him most on that angle, but he still has class questions to answer, and would only be used on the very bottom of exotics.

5) Ry’s The Guy (15-1) (89 Brisnet)-Allowance winner at 8f finds an ambitious spot here but isn’t completely outclassed from a figure standpoint by any means. Son of Distorted Humor broke his maiden in his 5thattempt on dirt; that came over a sloppy track, but won his only start on turf in allowance company immediately after. Ian Wilkes trainee takes a marked step up in class but his very entry implies upside- perhaps this is his niche? We don’t put much stake in Equibase figures but it bears mention that his 106 in his lone turf start tops the field; the price will be right to find out, and he may be the tactical type to hang around and blow up the bottom of the trifecta, so we will make room for him there.

6) Fog of War (3-1) (105 RPR, 94 Beyer, 92 Brisnet)-Morning line favorite for Chad Brown checks a lot of boxes, having won at this distance as a two-year-old and owns the field’s highest 8f speed figures across the board. He figures to take money off the Brown connection and seems a logical winner in this spot, but in the most wide-open race of the sequence, we’ll take a shot at a higher price in outright wagers as his rider jumps off for another. He’s lost position in the stretch and flattened out in both of his races this year, which isn’t a trend one likes to see when re-entering graded company. Narrow BRIS Prime Power selection (+0.8) will be used defensively in multis and damsire pedigree seems to contradict his apparent distance limitations (10.4 AWD), but we will look elsewhere for value here as it’s hard to side with a short price that is winless on the year against weaker company in such a competitive race.

7) Valid Point (5-1) (90 Beyer, 90 Brisnet)-Lightly raced son of Scat Daddy is undefeated in two career starts, both at this distance, and fits the “other Chad” criteria to a tee off an impressive 3.5 length win over optional claimers in his last. It’s interesting indeed to note that Javier Castellano jumps off today’s favorite and stablemate Fog of War to stay on this colt for his first career stakes try, who hasn’t been working well, perhaps by design? He closed well in both of his wins against lesser to own the highest average BRIS Late Pace speed figure in the field (96), and also has the tactical speed to sit a nice trip and get the job done here. Enters deeper waters but looks up to the challenge given his upside; the pick.

8) Faraway Kitten (9-2) (80 Beyer, 88 Brisnet)-Winner of the local prep American Derby at a distance a half furlong beyond this, Ramsey entrant has shown increasing speed figures in his last four starts. On the downside, those figures still pale in comparison to the top contenders here, so son of Kitten’s Joy would have to take another step forward, and the feeling here is that scenario is more likely to happen with added ground rather than a cutback. Looks like an underlay at these odds considering that the local prep has not translated well to this race historically, and he was 15-1 in that race to begin with; the time to be on him has passed.

9) Crafty Daddy (5-1) (80 Beyer, 88 Brisnet)-Son of Scat Daddy broke his maiden in March at this distance closing hard and ran a similar race when a dead heat 2ndin the local prep at 8.5f. He’s shown ascending speed figures in all six of his career starts but the similar feeling here is that he would benefit more from added ground than a cutback, especially in a race that doesn’t appear to have a ton of pace on paper. We’re tossing all of the American Derby runners from the trifecta.

Picks:

  1. Valid Point 5-1
  2. Never No More 6-1
  3. Fog of War 3-1
  4. Van Beethoven 8-1

Bricks and Mortar2

11- Arlington Million, 10f

1) Robert Bruce (7-2) (115 RPR, 103 Beyer, 99 Brisnet)-Defending champion is rounding into form for his third start of the year, coming off a 2ndplace finish where he wasn’t disgraced when beaten by today’s favorite just 1.5 lengths against Grade 1 company, posting career high speed figures across the board. He stumbled at the start of that race and found himself boxed in behind horses and further from the pace than would have been ideal, so a cleaner trip while saving ground on the rail could narrow that margin as he figures to get the jump on his stablemate. No horse has ever won the Arlington Million in back to back years, and he’s been well aimed for this considering the Breeders’ Cup doesn’t really have a race that fits him; this is a bonafide 10f horse through and through and he picks up Hall of Fame rider Javier Castellano for Chad Brown.

2) Magic Wand (5-1) (114 RPR, 103 Beyer, 103 Brisnet)-A gutsy move by the connections to run against the boys here, as a filly has never won the Arlington Million. Draw a line through her last, where she was essentially eased while trying a distance that was too far for her over too soft a surface, and she’s kept good company as an underneath type against Group 1 company abroad, showing a 2ndplace finish at the distance two races back in Ireland. But in her second US try of 2019, she couldn’t keep pace with the likes of Channel Maker and Arklow in the 11f Man O’War, the former of which was easily dispatched by today’s favorites Bricks and Mortar and Robert Bruce at 10f in the Manhattan, and she was beaten 2.5 lengths by Bricks and Mortar at 9f back in January. It’s difficult to make a case for her turning the tables on those two, especially given her lower speed figures this year, with RPRs ranging from 108-110 in her last three. Hasn’t won in 12 starts dating back to last June but has found the board in half of those efforts; well-traveled filly deserves a spot on the bottom of the trifecta on back class.

3) Bricks and Mortar (8-5) (119 RPR, 107 Beyer, 106 Brisnet)-Leading contender for Horse of the Year honors will be the star of Arlington Million Day, and his presence is worth the price of admission alone. He is very difficult to oppose in this spot coming in off of five straight turf wins and having bested three of today’s top foes on the square (Robert Bruce by 1.5 lengths at this distance, Bandua by 4, Magic Wand by 2.5 at 9.5f) and has demonstrated great versatility in closing to win races that didn’t set up for his style from a pace standpoint. He’ll likely have to do so again, as the race doesn’t appear to have much pace signed on. Still, there’s a sinking feeling that his winning streak will end at some point after such a strong campaign, and it’s peculiar timing indeed for the connections to sell his breeding rights before the race if he’s such an automatic winner. Bris Prime Power selection (+21.3) is by far the most likely winner, and a victory certainly won’t cost us in exotics or multis, but this looks like a decent spot to look for value in the win pool.

4) Catcho En Die (30-1) (111 RPR, 94 Brisnet)-Robbed us of last year’s trifecta in this race after jockey Jose Valdiva made a claim of foul for 3rdplace that was somehow upheld. We would play against him for that reason alone, but it also helps that he’s been incredibly off form since returning from a ten month layoff following that debacle, finishing 9th, 8thand 11thby a combined 27.5 lengths in his three starts this year. Toss.

5) Hunting Horn (12-1) (116 RPR, 102 Beyer, 102 Brisnet)-Our selection in last year’s Secretariat threw in a real stinker in that race when racing wide and rank near the lead, and his detractors will certainly point to that as a reason to oppose him here. They could also rightfully point to the fact that he hasn’t actually won a race in 12 starts dating back to before that race. However, he’s been keeping top company across the pond, racing against Group 1 foes in his last three at distances including 10f and 12f, and has posted consistent and competitive Racing Post Ratings in those efforts (115-115-114). In fact, in the last race he won at this distance last June, the RPR of 116 he earned is the second highest in the field. Looking more closely at his last stateside effort four races back in the Grade 1 Man o’ War at Belmont run at 11f, he set the pace and held a 3 length lead at the 10f point of the race before folding late to finish 4thbeaten only a length. He should appreciate the cutback from the 12f distance of his last and looms lone speed as the only Brisnet “E” designation with Ryan Moore, an astute judge of pace, in the irons. Playable on top for Aidan O’Brien at anywhere near this price.

6) The Great Day (12-1) (94 Beyer, 86 Brisnet)-A winner at 10f on dirt in Argentina, but son of Harlan’s Holiday has never won a turf race in five career tries. Finished a closing but non-threatening 2ndin the local prep for this and may enjoy the added ground here, but speed figures lag well beneath the top contenders. Trainer Arnaud Delacour has had success with his runners third off the lay, winning at a 29% clip, but this is quite the gap to bridge and a leap in class. A superfecta player at best.

7) Pivione (15-1) (114 RPR)-Euro shipper earned his first win of 2019 in his fifth start, beating 20 other horses in Handicap company at 10.5f over a firmer turf course and earning a competitive RPR. It’s fair to question what kind of field he beat in that race, however, and he did take quite a jump figure-wise in his last (from 107) that may be difficult to replicate after shipping. First time Lasix should help, and he finished ½ a length behind Trais Flurors at 10f just before that one bested fellow shipper Intellogent by a neck at 9f, so the Euro imports appear to be on close to even footing by that measuring stick, but class questions loom larger with this one as has never placed in group company.

8) Captivating Moon (20-1) (104 RPR, 90 Beyer, 97 Brisnet)-Always more of an underneath type against lesser, son of Malibu Moon was off the board in last year’s Secretariat but closed for 3rdin the local prep in his last. Trainer Chris Block doesn’t exactly fire second off the lay, winning just 9% of the time, and it’s difficult to envision a scenario where this deep closer is passing horses of this quality in the stretch.

9) Intellogent (12-1) (113 RPR)-Enters off a two and a half month layoff as the only Euro shipper with a win against Group 1 company; that came last summer at 8f over a firmer turf course and resulted in a 116 RPR, a number that would be quite competitive here if duplicated at the longer 10f distance. However, he just missed winning a 10.5f Group 1 last year, finishing 4thby just ¾ of a length, and finished 1.5 lengths ahead of today’s foe Hunting Horn in that race. Last seen a closing 4th at 9f in Group 1 company over a softer turf course than he appears to prefer, son of Intello boasts a strong AWD of 9.8 despite never having won beyond 9f. Gets Flourent Geroux aboard while receiving first time Lasix and adding blinkers; a player for the underneath spots at a decent price.

10) Bandua (6-1) (107 RPR, 98 Beyer, 96 Brisnet)- Winner of the 9.5f Arlington Handicap in his last after fading badly in the stretch to finish 6thbehind today’s top two foes in the 10f Manhattan before that. Based on prior form and pedigree, it would appear that the 9.5f distance may be his ceiling, and he might be better suited to the 9f distance. Could have a say in the early pace but draws a wide post and figures to back up in the stretch; would be a massive underlay at these odds.

Picks:

  1. Robert Bruce 7-2
  2. Bricks and Mortar 8-5
  3. Hunting Horn 12-1
  4. Intellogent 12-1

PICK 3 PLAY:

Sistercharlie, Competitionofideas/

Valid Point, Never No More, Fog of War, Van Beethoven/

Bricks and Mortar, Robert Bruce, Hunting Horn, Intellogent

(bet will be weighted to appropriately equalize the odds, i.e, heavier bets on the chalk)

 

 

 

 

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