Belmont Day Late Pick 4 Analysis

BELMONT DAY PICK 4 PICKS AND ANALYSIS

Tacitus

8- Woody Stephens, 7f, 4:04

1) Honest Mischief (6-1)- Chad Brown charge owns the best Brisnet speed at distance (108) and field high Beyer at the distance (97) for his maiden win last out. Makes his third career start and has room to improve from a ground saving post; can sit in the second flight of runners and get first run on what figures to be a hotly contested pace. Best bet of the day on a colt who may have unlimited upside.

2) Mind Control (5-2)- Deserving favorite draws outside the main speed here and enters having won two of his three 2019 starts, and was a Grade 1 winner at the distance as a two-year-old. Won the Grade 3 Bay Shore last out and earned a Beyer that ties for the best here at the distance (97); fits well in this spot and must be used on top in all wagers.

3) Hog Creek Hustle (20-1)- The lone Brisnet “S” designation in a field full of speed merits a look on that attribute alone as he cuts back to the distance where he has won before following a respectable 2nd at 8f in the Pat Day last out. Has shown ascending Brisnet speed figures in his last three races while running in graded company; usable on top at hefty odds.

4) Burracho (15-1)- Winner last out at this distance beat a salty field on Derby day and now steps up in class, but has shown three straight ascending Brisnet speed figures.

Try to beat:

Complexity (4-1)- Talented Chad Brown runner has a Grade 1 win at 8f over this track as a two-year-old but picks a tough spot for his first start of the year after more than seven months on the shelf as he draws inside the main speed and will likely be forced into a hotly contested pace early.

9- Met Mile, 8f, 4:46

1) Firenze Fire (4-1)- A perfect 3/3 at Belmont, one-turn specialist stretches out over his favorite track having won here at 6f in his last. Ran the best race of his career over this track and distance when winning the Dwyer, earning a field high 8f Beyer (107). Looks poised to lay back off the pace and set up his late move in a likely speed-heavy race.

2) McKinzie (5-2)- By far the horse to beat on paper as he cuts back following a triumphant score in the 8.5f Alysheba, where he posted speed figures that tower over these (109 Beyer, 112 Brisnet). There’s not much to knock here besides the fact that he’s never raced at Belmont and draws inside the speed; must-use on top in any case.

3) Prince Lucky (12-1)- Appears a bit overlooked here after a dreadful outing last out over a sloppy track, but he’d won three in a row before that race. Pletcher and Velazquez team up for a colt that owns the highest Beyer and Brisnet speed figures at this distance in the field this year (106, 106) for his February win in the Hal’s Hope; a run back to that race puts him squarely in the mix at long odds, and he’s one of just three here to have won at Belmont.

4) Thunder Snow (5-1)- Two-time Dubai World Cup winner has raced well at Belmont and has tactical speed, but has never won a race in the United States, and all of his best races have come at 10f. The feeling here is that the 8f distance may be a tad sharper than ideal for this likely race shape but he deserves respect on class alone.

Try to beat: The sprinters.

Mitole (3-1) and Promises Fulfilled (12-1)- Horses cutting back tend to fare better than those stretching out in this race, and these two happen to both be “E” designations who figure to be on the motor from the start. Mitole just won at 7f in his first attempt beyond 6f; we opposed him there and will do the same here on principle in a tougher spot. Promises Fulfilled is perhaps a bit more appealing as he’s won at 8.5f before, but that was over a year ago against less pace and far inferior foes.

10- Manhattan, 10f, 5:36

1) Bricks and Mortar (7-5)- Besides the fact that he’s won 8 of his last 10 races, with the two losses coming by a combined 1.5 lengths, what’s been most impressive has been the way he’s won. The glacial paces he closed into in winning his last two (1:15 for the 3/4) usually mean death for off the pace types, but he gobbled up ground both times and simply refused to lose. Catches some added ground here as he’s never gone 10f, but it seems that should only help based on his last two and also that his highest career figures came in his longest race at 9.5f (107 Beyer, 106 Brisnet).  A highly viable single every time he runs until someone beats him.

2) Raging Bull (10-1)- Sneaky Chad Brown closer has caught soft ground in 5 of his last 6, but the one race of those over firm came in the 9f Hollywood Derby where he won convincingly and earned competitive figures (97 Beyer, 104 Brisnet). The move back to firmer ground combined with the added distance could hit him right between the eyes at a price as he owns the highest Brisnet Late Pace figure of 112. Runs third off the lay and adds blinkers; Brown wins with 25% of his runners after making that equipment change.

3) Robert Bruce (6-1)- Our Arlington Million champion has been somewhat of a forgotten horse since that win, having missed the board entirely in his last two. He’s been running on soft turf and distances both longer than shorter than this one, however, and a return to firm turf here at the same distance as the Million which seems to be his sweet spot could inspire an improved effort second off the lay for Chad Brown, who wins with 25% of his runners in that stage of their form cycle.

4) Channel Maker (9-2)- Inconsistent type cuts back to 10f after winning his last over this turf course, earning competitive speed figures (106 Beyer, 103 Brisnet) at 11f. His best race puts him right in the mix but the feeling here is that he may be more effective going longer than this; was easily beaten by the top selection three back and only three wins in the last ten starts came at 11f or longer.

Try to beat:

Olympico (6-1)- Chad Brown holds a heavy hand here but we upgrade the runners moving from soft to firm ground who have been losing over the off going rather than the opposite; his last nine races have all come over good to soft turf so it’s fair to wonder whether he moves down over firmer ground.

Quarbaan (8-1)- Fits on figures but has lost ground in the stretch of both of his last two after leading and getting ideal trips; not sure he wants to go this far.

11- Belmont Stakes, 12f, 6:37

1) Tacitus (9-5)- Favorite checks off a lot of boxes in this spot, as sire Tapit has won three of the last five editions of this race, and colts to skip the Preakness after contesting the Derby have won four of the last five where a Triple Crown wasn’t on the line. Additionally, he was the only colt in the Derby to gain ground on the winner in the stretch after racing within five lengths of the pace at the second call, so the added distance should be a positive. Still owns the best Brisnet speed figure of the group (103) for his 9f Wood Memorial score; the one to beat, albeit at short odds.

2) Tax (15-1)- Didn’t do a lot of running when 14th in the Derby, but he had excuses from an inside post that didn’t allow him to be comfortably positioned near the pace as preferred, and the sloppy track didn’t seem to do any favors either. With a pedigree that suggests he can run all day, the combination of tactical speed and grinding style should suit quite well in this race third off the lay. With all of the steam on the new shooters, it’s worth mentioning that he defeated Sir Winston by 5 lengths earlier this year in the 9f Withers. The Timeform figure he earned in defeat in the Wood Memorial (120) is second only to the Preakness winner, and if we like Tacitus to win, we have to like him at least a little bit coming narrowly beaten out of the same race.

3) Intrepid Heart (10-1)- Primarily a pedigree and pace play, as sire Tapit has been responsible for three of the last five winners of this race, and damsire Touch Gold won it to deny a triple crown attempt. A stumble at the start cost him over this track last out when 3rd in the Peter Pan, but the addition of blinkers and a less taxing race shape should increase tactical type’s chances. Lightly raced and facing Grade 1 company for the first time (and graded company for just the second time), but has shown increasing Brisnet speed figures in his three career starts is eligible to improve again third off the lay for Todd Pletcher.

4) Sir Winston (12-1)- Earned the highest Beyer in the field when 2nd over this track in the Peter Pan (100). Deep closer is rapidly improving but will need to stay in touch with the leaders in a race that is not traditionally kind to that style of running, as well as turn tables of 9 combined lengths against the top two selections. The transitive property doesn’t mean much in horse racing, but it’s still worth mentioning. He’s never won a dirt race and chooses a tough spot to earn his first, but the added distance could be the key for a colt who is rapidly improving and is bred to run true routes, by Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Awesome Again and out of an Afleet Alex mare, one of just two damsires in this field to have won this race.

Try to beat: The Preakness colts.

War of Will (2-1)- Admittedly a warrior, but draws an outside post here and will have to track the speed while losing ground all the way around following two very tough races over the last five weeks. 12f may be further than he wants to go under those circumstances. The feeling is that the top four selections are better colts than any that ran in the Preakness, and all four have run higher Brisnet tops. He rode a golden rail in the Preakness and the setup doesn’t appear to set up as kindly here against a tougher group.

Bourbon War (12-1)- Our Preakness selection removes blinkers after that experiment backfired, but we are through endorsing him for anything more than a spot underneath the superfecta at this point. Grinders without tactical speed are not generally successful in this race, although he does round out the Tapit contingent.

Everfast (15-1)- Continues to destroy exacta bets by coming in second at long odds thanks to perfect setups, but that trend ends here in a race that doesn’t favor his drop back early style. (He was 22 lengths back at the start of the Preakness. 22!)

Pick 4 Bet:

Honest Mischief, Mind Control, Hog Creek Hustle/

Firenze Fire, McKinzie, Prince Lucky/

Bricks and Mortar/

Tacitus, Tax, Intrepid Heart, Sir Winston

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