Kentucky Derby 2018 Undercard Picks


6- Humana Distaff, 12:13, 7f

1) #1 Finleysluckycharm (7-2)- 6 for 6 in the winner’s circle at CD and looks like potential lone speed on the rail, owns best BRIS at this distance (103) and has won twice at 7f, including her last where she drew widest of all, now gets ground-saving inside post.

2) #8 American Gal (7-2)- 4th by a neck when part of blanket finish last out in the Madison behind the top selection; looms the other main speed and stands to move forward second off the lay for Simon Callaghan, who wins with 22% of his runners in that stage of their form cycle.

3) #5 Skye Diamonds (5-1)- If pace is hotter than expected she looms the best closer; only entrant to duplicate back to back triple digit BRIS figures in her last two and also owns field high Beyer figure (98).

4) Ivy Bell (5-1) Solid form at CD and enters off a career best figure (90 Beyer, 100 BRIS); another off the pace type but beaten easily here last summer by the top selection.

Bets: 3 horse Exacta Box, use top 3 in multis

 7- Distaff Turf Mile, 12:55, 8f

1) #9 On Leave (8-1)- Rough trip off the lay in last and still missed by just a half length to loose on the lead filly, should be more forwardly placed here with that under her belt and back form tops the field on figures (107 BRIS, 97 Beyer at 8.5f).

2) #6 Proctor’s Ledge (12-1)-Bounced in last but now goes third off the lay and seems to alternate quality races, due for another big one on a well-timed cutback as figures stack up well with this group (109 RPR) at a juicy price.

3) #7 Res Ipsa (10-1)- Just missed along with the top selection in last after falling too far off the pace, should be closer here and looms large second off the lay with field’s best last out speed figure (95 BRIS, 95 Beyer).

4) #11 La Coronel (3-1) Draws wide here and hasn’t won in awhile but has kept classy company (110 RPR tops the field); BRIS Prime Power choice can’t be ignored as race shape figures to suit.

Bets: Place on #9, 3 horse Exacta Box, use all 4 in multis.

8- Churchill Downs Hcp, 1:45,7f

1) #1 Whitmore (6-1)- Never gone 7f but has duplicated 102 Beyers flying from off the pace in last two at 6f, should have plenty to run at here and looks to be begging for the added ground; may not have been all out against far inferior competition at Oaklawn and has been clearly targeted for this spot.

2) #10 Awesome Slew (5-2)- 2nd in this event last year, true one turn closer should get a better set up this time closer to the pace and does have an 8f win over the track to fall back on; enters off best Last Race BRIS figure (103) when 2nd in 7f Carter.

3) #3 Imperial Hint (9-5)- The clear horse to beat on figures, but 6f pace type could be vulnerable second off the lay going the extra furlong with cheap speed signed on either side of him. Does own best speed at the distance for Beyers and BRIS (105,106) and would be tough to ignore on the top line.

4) #7 Limousine Liberal (4-1)- Defending champ meets a saltier bunch in this edition and exits off a loss off the lay to a colt that the top pick just beat by 11 lengths; also lost to the top pick head to head at Keeneland last fall, loves CD but betting against a repeat.

Bets: Place on #1, Trifecta Part Wheel 2/3/4 and Key IH/2/3, use top 3 in multis

9- American Turf, 2:37, 8.5f

1) #1 Speed Franco (6-1)- Nothing is more dangerous than lone speed on the rail and speedy son of Declaration of War could have it all his own way on the lead here and hang on after missing by a neck in his last two. Enters off field high Beyer and BRIS Last Race figures (91, 91) and RPR (107) puts him right in the mix as well; consistent type well-aimed here.

2) #6 River Boyne (5-1) Winner of last three at Santa Anita ships east and could be the one to pick up the pieces if a faster than expected pace materializes; BRIS Prime Power Selection fits just behind the top selection on figures.

3) #10 Maraud (6-1)- Bounced in his last behind two of today’s foes but perhaps did not take to the yielding turf at Keeneland; defeated the top selection two back and Pletcher should have son of Blame ready to roll third off the lay. Owns best BRIS speed figure at the distance (95).

4) #3 Threeandfourpence (4-1)- Classy Aidan O’Brien trainee will attract attention as he switches back to turf following two races on dirt and synthetic where he finished behind Mendelssohn. We are unsure that simply running behind that one amounts to a win here (Rayya finished 13th on Friday) though and all of his prior turf races have come on softer ground and at shorter distances; this looks like a spot to stick with the home team on top.

Bets- Place on #1, 3 horse Exacta Box, use top 2 in limited multis (toughest race of the sequence).

10- Pat Day Mile, 3:28, 8f

1) #5 Mississippi (10-1)- 3rd place finisher in the Florida Derby is flying under the radar a bit here. Of the top three, he did all the dirty work in that race running close to hot fractions and should be more sensibly placed here and enjoy the cutback; shows a field high BRIS figure (102) from runner-up finish at 8.5f before that. Huge overlay at these odds.

2) #8 Mask (4-1) Lightly raced son of Tapit could be any kind for Chad Brown; comes off over a three month layoff but Brown wins in that spot with 29% of his runners and field high BRIS and Beyer figures at the distance (100,91) merit attention in third career start.

3) #1 National Flag (4-1)- Todd Pletcher trainee is preferred to the other colt stretching out here, Madison’s Luna, due to his ascending late pace figures in last two starts, and field high figure two back at 7f (104 BRIS, 100 Beyer).

4) #12 Restoring Hope (9-2) 3rd place finisher in the Wood Memorial gets some class relief combined with a cutback and blinkers added for Bob Baffert.

Bets- Place on #5, 3 horse Exacta Box, use top 3 in multis

11- Turf Classic, 4:25, 9f

1) #7 Synchrony (5-1)- With both short-priced favorites vulnerable due to completely opposite layoff-related concerns, we land on the hot horse here that enters third off the lay off of two straight wins at the distance and who has duplicated triple digit Beyers (103,102) that top the field at that distance. Any questions?

2) #1 Deauville (3-1)- Enters off a quick 17 day turnaround and a ship but appeared to regain the form he had lost in his last after a needed layoff, finishing 2nd in a Group 3 event at this distance and posting a best last out RPR of 113. He has won after a shorter layoff than this before, granted not after a Transatlantic ship, but held the lead at the 9f mark of the Arlington Million so could find this the ideal trip from a ground-saving post; the feeling here is that he will go off higher than his morning line and offers value in that scenario.

3) #10 Beach Patrol (5-2)- Deserving favorite got really good late last year winning at distances longer than this one; has over a six month layoff to contend with since then though and it’s worth wondering whether he will be fully cranked with other targets looming this summer.

4) #5 Channel Maker (10-1) Deep closer may not get quite as much pace as he needs to win this but should see more than he did when 5th two back behind today’s foe Kurilov; owns best BRIS figure at the distance from last November’s Hollywood Derby score (106) and must be taken seriously.

5) #3 Kurilov (6-1) Chad Brown trainee looks like the wise guy horse in this spot as the two horses he finished between last out at this distance, Heart To Heart and Hi Happy, came back to win huge races. With Shining Copper as a legitimate speed presence to his inside, he is unlikely to encounter such friendly fractions this time, however, and he hasn’t raced as exclusively on turf as the top contenders here, as his previous six before his last came on dirt. Can hang around for a piece.

Bets- Place on #7, Trifecta Key Synchrony/2/4 and 2/Synchrony/4, use top 3 in multis

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