LATE PICK 4- AQUEDUCT 4/4/15

8- GAZELLE (9f)

Morning line favorite and need-the-lead type CONDO COMMANDO (8-5) looks beatable here as she lands in a spot with a lot of speed ‎as she steps up in class from her last. Turning the page back to our BC Juvenile Fillies handicapping, there are two here that look more appealing that figure to get good trips from behind the pace. PUCA (6-1) lands on the rail and goes second off the lay following a 4th place finish in tough company that wasn’t that bad- she bobbled at the start and was four wide throughout and still posted a speed figure equal to the favorite’s last. With a sequence of steady works under her belt, she figures to save ground on the rail before the speed collapses in front of her. WONDER GAL (7-2) hasn’t raced since an impressive 3rd place finish at the BC, but if she runs back to that effort should win easily, and she’s another that should benefit from having some pace to run into at the added distance.

USE: PUCA, WONDER GAL

9- BAY SHORE (7f)

Using the opposite strategy, we won’t get cute here. READY FOR RYE (9-5) and LORD NELSON (2-1)‎ tower over this field on paper. Getting those odds as a multiplier is not bad at all for a vertical wager.

USE: READY FOR RYE, LORD NELSON

10- WOOD MEMORIAL (9f)

Here’s where the bet gets good. We know this race is pretty weak without Far From Over. The three vying for favoritism, DAREDEVIL (9-5), FROSTED (5-2)‎ and EL KABEIR (3-1) are all nice colts. But they are also all front-running types with proven distance limitations. That’s right, all three have held leads and lost them at distances shorter than this one. Added pace pressure from cheep speed in here like TOASTING MASTER and LIEUTENANT COLONEL could leave them in requirement of an oxygen mask turning for home. So let’s take a real shot here with a colt that figures to save ground behind the lead and close. Look no further than TIZ SHEA D (8-1). He wasn’t disgraced when 2nd in the Gotham behind EL KABEIR over a muddy track that probably wasn’t to his liking based on his pedigree. He’s very lightly raced, this being just his third career start, and while he will need to take a big step forward, his pedigree says he will love the added ground (by Tiznow out of an AP Indy mare), and he won’t lose any ground being drawn on the rail. Single him!

USE: TIZ SHEA D

11- CARTER (7f)

This is a great race. I’d argue 5 of the 10 best sprinters in America are entered here, which makes it a tough one to narrow down. ‎Since it is run at 7f, I think we can look at the extremely hot pace as an angle. Defending champion DADS CAPS (7-2) draws the rail, but he’ll have more pace pressure than he did last year (23.2/46.2 is super slow for a sprint race) thanks to the presence of THE BIG BEAST (5-2) drawn to his outside. That one has been more of a 6f horse, and although he does show one win at 7f over lesser company, picks a tough spot to move up in class, and these are short odds on the stretchout. Horses like GREEN GROTTO, DREAM SATURDAY and STREET SHARK will be absolutely gunning it, so we want to look for more accomplished horses that can stalk the pace and capitalize. He’s been layed off for seven months, but 7f is CLEARLY NOW’s (4-1) game. He’s been working sharply for this, and you can draw a line through his last race as he was bumped at the break, drawn wide and lost all chance. Go back another race and you’ll see he shows the best speed figure at the distance among these. PALACE (5-1) is easily the most accomplished runner in the field, and had a good shot to win the Eclipse award for this division last year before failing to hit the board in the Breeders’ Cup. He’s another that is better at 7f than 6f and has to be used on class alone. The hot horse in the division right now is WILD DUDE (3-1). He’s posted consistent speed figures and comes off a win at this distance in his last. All three are stalker/ presser types that figure to get a perfect setup.

USE: CLEARLY NOW, PALACE, WILD DUDE

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