2013 BOWL PICKS- Score Prediction for Every Game

A whopping 35 games this year! I’ve made my picks for all of them.

Prediction Method:

Compare each team’s scoring offense and scoring defense to the teams that they have played by averaging their opponents’ season totals for scoring offense and defense. This gives a snapshot of how many points a team scored/ gave up on average versus how many points they “should have” scored/ given up based on their opposition, all things equal. We take that difference and apply it to the Bowl Opponent.

So, if Team A on average scored 5 more points than it “should have” all season, and Team B’s defense averaged to give up 25 points per game, Team A is assumed to score 5+25=30 Points in the Bowl Game. The same method is applied using Team B’s defensive averages against its opponents. So, if Team B on average gave up 7 less points than it “should have”, and Team A averages 35 points per game, then Team A is assumed to score 35-7= 28 points. By averaging 30 and 28, we arrive at a composite score of 29 for Team A. The same method is used for Team B, and then we have a final score prediction.

While this formula fails to take into account important aspects such as motivation, it still gives a great statistical picture in terms of body of work and schedule difficulty. Here are the results when applied to each and every game, with spread and over under lines in parentheses:

NEW MEXICO BOWL (Dec 21, 1:00): Colorado State 35, Washington State 28 (+4, 65)

LAS VEGAS BOWL (Dec 21, 2:30): Fresno State 35, USC 28 (+6, 62)

IDAHO POTATO BOWL (Dec 21, 4:30): Buffalo 34, San Diego State 20 (PK, 53)

NEW ORLEANS BOWL (Dec 21, 8:00): Tulane 27, Louisiana Lafayette 26 (PK)

ST. PETERSBURG BOWL (Dec 23, 1:00): East Carolina 41, Ohio 24 (-13.5, 61.5)

HAWAII BOWL (Dec 24, 7:00): Boise State 35, Oregon State 28 (+3, 65)

LITTLE CAESAR’S BOWL (Dec 26, 5:00): Bowling Green 31, Pittsburgh 16 (-5.5, 50)

POINSETTIA BOWL (Dec 26, 8:30): Northern Illinois 29, Utah State 26 (-1.5, 58)

MILITARY BOWL (Dec 27, 1:30): Marshall 41, Maryland 26 (-2.5, 61)

TEXAS BOWL (Dec 27, 5:00): Minnesota 26, Syracuse 16 (-4, 47.5)

FIGHT HUNGER BOWL (Dec 27, 8:30): Washington 29, BYU 26 (-3, 58.5)

PINSTRIPE BOWL (Dec 28, 11:00): Notre Dame 33, Rutgers 21 (-15.5, 52.5)

BELK BOWL (Dec 28, 2:20): Cincinnati 27, North Carolina 25 (+3, 56.5)

RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL (Dec 28, 5:45): Louisville 31, Miami 21 (-3.5, 55.5)

BW3 BOWL (Dec 28, 9:15): Kansas State 33, Michigan 30 (-3.5, 55.5)

ARMED FORCES BOWL (Dec 30, 10:45): Navy 30, Western Kentucky 29 (-6, 56)

MUSIC CITY BOWL (Dec 30, 2:15): Ole Miss 28, Georgia Tech 27 (-3, 57)

ALAMO BOWL (Dec 30, 5:45): Oregon 40, Texas 26 (-14, 67)

HOLIDAY BOWL (Dec 30, 9:15): Arizona State 45, Texas Tech 31 (-14, 70)

INDEPENDENCE BOWL: (Dec 31. 11:30): Arizona 32, Boston College 27 (-7.5, 57)

SUN BOWL: (Dec 31, 1:00): UCLA 26, Virginia Tech 17 (-7, 47)

LIBERTY BOWL: (Dec 31, 3:00): Rice 26, Mississippi State 22 (+7, 50.5)

PEACH BOWL: (Dec 31, 7:00): Texas A&M 41, Duke 34 (-12.5, 73.5)

GATOR BOWL: (Jan 1, 11:00): Georgia 38, Nebraska 31 (-9, 60.5)

DALLAS BOWL: (Jan 1, 11:00): North Texas 34, UNLV 20 (-6.5, 54.5)

OUTBACK BOWL: (Jan 1, 12:00): LSU 27, Iowa 23 (-7.5, 49)

CITRUS BOWL: (Jan 1, 12:00): Wisconsin 27, South Carolina 20 (PK, 51)

ROSE BOWL (Jan 1, 4:30): Stanford 18, Michigan State 16 (-4.5, 42.5)

FIESTA BOWL (Jan 1, 7:30): Baylor 45, Central Florida 28 (-16.5, 68)

SUGAR BOWL (Jan 2, 7:30): Alabama 30, Oklahoma 16 (-15, 51.5)

COTTON BOWL (Jan 3, 6:30): Oklahoma State 30, Missouri 29 (+1, 60.5)

ORANGE BOWL (Jan 3, 7:30): Ohio State 38, Clemson 34 (-2.5, 67)

BBVA COMPASS (Jan 4, 12:00): Houston 30, Vanderbilt 21 (+3, 54)

GODADDY BOWL (Jan 5, 8:00) Ball State 38, Arkansas State 23 (-9, 63.5)

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP (Jan 6, 7:30): Florida State 47, Auburn 26 (-8.5, 67)

Confidence:

35 Florida State (-21)

34 Baylor (-17)

33 East Carolina (-17)

32 Ball State (-15)

31 Bowling Green (-15)

30 Marshall (-15)

29 Alabama (-14)

28 Oregon (-14)

27 Arizona State (-14)

26 North Texas (-14)

25 Buffalo (-14)

24 Notre Dame (-12)

23 Minnesota (-10)

22 Louisville (-10)

21 UCLA (-9)

20 Houston (-9)

19 Texas A&M (-7)

18 Georgia (-7)

17 Wisconsin (-7)

16 Boise State (-7)

15 Colorado State (-7)

14 Fresno State (-7)

13 Arizona (-5)

12 LSU (-4)

11 Ohio State (-4)

10 Rice (-4)

9 Kansas State (-3)

8 Washington (-3)

7 Northern Illinois (-3)

6 Cincinnati (-3)

5 Stanford (-2)

4 Navy (-1)

3 Ole Miss (-1)

2 Tulane (-1)

1 Oklahoma State (-1)

Best Bets: (Prediction double digits vs spread, “ML” indicates a spread underdog and potential money line bet)

Buffalo (+14)

Fresno State (+13) ML

Florida State (+12.5)

Marshall (+12.5)

Houston (+12) ML

Rice (+11) ML

Colorado State (+11) ML

Boise State (+10) ML

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