Early Kentucky Derby Picks

I’m on my way to Italy in a few days so I won’t be posting on this blog until I come back. With the NCAA tourney over (at least I predicted the winner correctly, but that wasn’t really the hard part) and the weather too cold to get excited about the major league baseball season quite yet, I’m focusing all of my efforts on the Kentucky Derby. At first glance, this is going to be a really tough one, as no horse looks dominant and any of about eight look to have legitimate chances to win with two big prep races still to come this weekend. Here is my Top 15 through last weekend’s action:

Dis Place Time Beyer Notes
#1 Street Sense (Street Cry-Bedazzle)
Tampa Bay Derby 8.5f 1st 1:43.1 101 Stalked pace, won grueling stretch duel

#2 Circular Quay (Thunder Gulch-Circle of Life)
Risen Star 8.5f 5th Rough trip, essentially stopped early
Louisiana Derby 8.5f 1st 1:43.0 102 Five wide in the turn, rallied to win, driving

#3 Nobiz Like Showbiz (Albert the Great-Nightstorm (by Storm Cat))
Holy Bull 8f 1st 1:35.2 Shook lose early, broke away easily
Fountain of Youth 9f 3rd 1:49.2 98 In the mix late, fell short, bumped stretch
Wood Memorial 9f 1st 98 Nearly wire to wire, held on

#4 Great Hunter (Aptitude-Zenith)
Robert B. Lewis 8.5f 1st 1:42.4 101 Sat off pace, exploded stretch, galloped out

#5 Scat Daddy (Johannesburg-Love Style)
Holy Bull 8f 3rd Beaten on the pace early, never recovered
Fountain of Youth 9f 1st 1:49.1 95 Stalked, surged in final strides for nose win
Florida Derby 9f 1st 1:49.0 Stalked, gained lead, driving home

#6 Any Given Saturday (Distorted Humor-Weekend In Indy (by AP Indy)) Tampa Bay Derby 8.5f 2nd 1:43.1 101 Battled gamely, lost narrowly in the stretch
Wood Memorial 9f 3rd Three wide turn, battled, tired.

#7 Hard Spun (Danzig-Turkish Tryst)

Lane’s End 9f 1st 1:49.2 101 Pushed the pace, took command, steadied

#8 Tiago (Pleasant Tap)
Robert B. Lewis 8.5f 7th Caught the pace on the turn, tired
Santa Anita Derby 9f 1st 100 Flying on the finish to overtake top 3

#9 Notional (In Excess- Truly Blessed (by French Deputy))
Risen Star 8.5f 1st 1:44.1 Benefited from lucky trip to win by 2 1/2
San Rafael 8f 1st 1:36.3 Made up ground in a hurry
Florida Derby 9f 2nd 1:49.2 Drove late, outdueled.

#10 Stormello (Stormy Atlantic-Wilshewed)

Fountain of Youth 9f 2nd 1:49.1 96 Led down the stretch, caught at wire
Florida Derby 9f 4th 1:49.4 Set hot pace, tired
Blue Grass

#11 Cowtown Cat (Distorted Humor-Tom’s Cat (by Storm Cat))
Illinois Derby 9f 1st 1:51.1 Wire to wire winner, game drive

#12 Sightseeing
Wood Memorial 9f 2nd Set off the pace, closed gamely for 2nd

#13 King of the Roxy (Little Expectations-Marrakesh)

Hutcheson 7.5f 1st 103
Santa Anita Derby 9f 2nd Stalked, drove late to lead, caught wire

#14 Sam P
Holy Bull 8f 4th
Robert B. Lewis 8.5f 2nd On the pace early, held on for game 2nd
Santa Anita Derby 9f 3rd Stalked, bid late, stalled

#15 Curlin (Smart Strike-Sheriffs Deputy (by Deputy Minister)

Rebel 8.5f 1st 1:44.3 97 Commanded a weak field throughout
Arkansas Derby

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