ENTHUSIAST OF ALL

PACE:

#1 CITIZEN BULL (Into Mischief/ Distorted Humor) 87 Beyer, 97 Brisnet, 20-1

Pros: Defending Two-Year-Old Champion after winning the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile in a wire job last fall will enter the gate first as trainer Bob Baffert makes his return to the Run For The Roses following a three-year ban from the event after a banned substance test fallout. Led the whole way in similar fashion in 2025 debut when winning the 8f Robert B. Lewis and defeating stablemate Rodriguez by an easy 3.75 lengths, a flattering form line after that one ran back to win the 9f Wood Memorial impressively. They’ll attempt to duplicate those efforts with Martin Garcia in the saddle. Has been working well over the track this week, firing bullets to tighten up the fitness a bit.

Cons: Appeared to be exposed when a well-beaten 4^th last out in the Santa Anita Derby, fading badly with the added distance in a small field (:40.09 for the final 3/8 and a meager 82 Late Pace rating) after setting the pace for the opening ½ furlong. Drawing the dreaded #1 Post inside of most of the other speed does no favors in this spot. Simply has not moved forward at all from a speed figure standpoint relative to the two-year-old campaign.

Conclusion: Buried on the rail is simply not the place to be for a need-the-lead type that is already demonstrating distance issues. Garcia will have no choice but to gas it from the break, but getting the lead out of the far inside post will be challenging, and the overall pace is expected to be hot. Seems a talented type that may find a niche at a mile this summer and fall, but is not for us in this spot.

#5 AMERICAN PROMISE (Justify/ Tapit) 95 Beyer, 105 Brisnet, 30-1

Pros: A dominating pace-pressing winner over 9f in the Virginia Derby last out that is heavily raced for “The Coach” D. Wayne Lukas, notching two wins in a field-leading nine career starts. Brisnet looked kindly upon that last race, returning a speed figure that ranks third in this field behind the two that exit the Santa Anita Derby. By a Triple Crown winner and out of a Tapit mare, there is no colt in the field with higher average winning distance numbers via sire and damsire (7.7f/ 7.6f), and this one should surely relish the 10f distance.

Cons: Enters off the longest layoff in the field, as the aforementioned race came a full 7 weeks ago, an unprecedented break leading up to this. Even 6 weeks of space between the Derby and the most recent prep race has been a historical obstacle. Managed to draw to the outside of two of the main speeds, but could still potentially be drawn into an early pace duel from this inside post and probably is not as fast as those two out of the gate or in general. While the final winning time for the Virginia Derby of 1:46.2 was impressive, the closing fractions of :38.01 for the last 3/8 and :13.39 for the final 1/8 leave a bit to be desired. That win came against lesser open stakes company over a bizarrely configured one turn 9f course, and the two graded races prior resulted in off the board finishes behind the likes of today’s foes Sandman, Tiztastic and Chunk of Gold. Could be a bounce candidate as well, as that race stands as a bit of an outlier against his prior form in terms of such a massive leap in speed figures and Thoro-Graph (went from 8.5 to 7 to 1). Took a whopping six tries last year to break maiden, although that win did come against today’s foe Publisher when it finally happened.

Conclusion: Perhaps he was simply so far ahead in winning his last that we shouldn’t look at those closing fractions too conclusively, as this is certainly a stamina-laden colt with upside, showing ascending Beyers in three consecutive races. And, maybe the long break from races will help to subdue the bounce potential returning from such a strong effort. Has tables to turn against a few here who are quite middling in their own right, and takes a step up in class. Misses the cut for our tickets, but not by a ton.

#12 EAST AVENUE (Medaglia d’Oro/ Ghostzapper) 96 Beyer, 97 Brisnet, 20-1

Pros: Regarded as one of the more talented members of last year’s two-year old class before throwing a dud at the Breeders’ Cup and in subsequent 2025 start, well-bred Godolphin colt finally got back on track last out when nosed at the wire in the 9f Blue Grass after leading all the way, pairing back to a career best Thoro-Graph figure of 3 in that effort. The post seems beneficial, having drawn outside of most of the main speed to the inside.

Cons: Even in defeat, we sure would have liked to have seen a faster closing fraction in the Blue Grass, as getting nailed at 9f coming home in :39.42 for the final 3/8 with an 83 Late Pace rating doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence on the stretch out to 10f. Would need a large improvement from these speed figures to compete with the top players here.

Conclusion: Both career wins to date have come in wire-to-wire fashion, and it is simply hard to envision a scenario where this edition of the Kentucky Derby is won in that manner. Timeform’s Pace Projector predicts that this will be the one to catch, and it makes sense for connections to send here with a stablemate that wants to come from far back anyway. Doesn’t seem like the one that will fade to last given the pedigree and more comfortable post, but feels more like a midpack finisher than one that will seriously threaten for a minor award.

#2 NEOEQUOS (Neolithic/ Birdstone) 91 Beyer, 96 Brisnet, 30-1

Pros: Held the lead late in last out final prep when a beaten 3^rd in the Florida Derby, and has hit the board in both graded starts this year.

Cons: Has never won beyond 6f, and it’s fair to question whether this one wants to go anywhere near this far. The lowly Late Pace rating earned in the Florida Derby (83) when stretching to 9f for the first time while racing near soft early fractions would seem to confirm that. In a field loaded with speed, there’s only one place worse to be than in the two hole. Speed figures look a cut below the best here as well.

Conclusion: Difficult to confidently identify a path to victory or contention. Adds heat to the pace, but is decidedly up against it in this spot. No thanks.

#20 OWEN ALMIGHTY (Speightstown/ Bayern) 92 Beyer, 97 Brisnet, 30-1

Pros: Graded stakes winner took them all the way merry-go-round style when winning the 8.5f Tampa Bay Derby, albeit against a weak field and with the assistance of crawling fractions. Broke maiden at Churchill Downs.

Cons: Was nowhere to be found last out in the 9f Blue Grass, finishing a well-beaten 6^th after fading badly in the stretch (:40.12 final 3/8, 76 Late Pace). That performance lines up well with the notion that this may be the single weakest pedigree in the field; sire Speightstown was a brilliant sprinter but has never had a Derby runner. The owners reversed course after that race, initially determining not to run here before reconsidering, exhibiting an indecisiveness that surely does not bode well in a race as competitive as this. Runs best when forwardly placed but will have a daunting task to accomplish that while drawn out of a wide post.

Conclusion: Derby Fever baby. Let’s just hope the colt exits the race in good health. Should be the heavy favorite to finish dead last.

JUST OFF THE PACE:

#21 BAEZA (McKinzie/ Big Brown) 101 Beyer, 107 Brisnet, 12-1

Pros: Rapidly improving sort gave the favorite Journalism all he could handle last out when 2^nd in the Santa Anita Derby, leading in deep stretch before being caught by that one, ceding just ¾ of a length in defeat in fourth career start. That effort returned a triple digit Beyer, one of only two colts in the field to cross that key threshold, and the Brisnet figure is the second highest in the field as well. We like to see finishers come home under :38.0 for the final 3/8 of their 9f prep and Baeza sits right on the cusp of that, finishing in :38.09 but returning a strong Late Pace rating of 102 that is also second in the field on the dirt, likely as a result of a swift final 1/8 fraction of :12.64. The average winning distance numbers of sire and damsire don’t jump off the page, but it’s fun to note that the grandsire Street Sense and damsire Big Brown are both Derby winners, and half-brothers Mage and Dornoch out of the dam Puca won this race two years ago and won the Belmont a year ago at double digit odds respectively; there shouldn’t be many distance concerns here. Flavien Prat jumps off Neoequos to pick up the mount for trainer John Shirreffs, a certain rider upgrade.

Cons: Drew into the race late Thursday after the unfortunate scratch of Rodriguez, who would have been among the favorites here. Connections had prepared all along as though they would get in, but in doing so will enter in the widest post of all, which not a killer but is also not ideal for a runner who wants to be more forwardly placed. Lightly raced with only four career starts, it’s fair to wonder if the career effort last time out was too taxing.

Conclusions: It is hard to even know what to do with a colt that shows a Thoro-Graph pattern like this after just four races: 15.5-6.75-4-0. The improvements are massive but also somewhat evenly balanced, and he hasn’t yet paired tops; should we expecting another large jump in this spot or is a bounce more likely? The former would point to a certain win contender at likely elevated odds relative to those chances. It bears mention that the “0” earned in the Santa Anita Derby was faster than the winner, is the strongest last out figure and second-best overall figure. Must be used in exactas and considered for the top line based on that alone; sky’s the limit.

#7 LUXOR CAFÉ (American Pharoah/ More Than Ready) N/A Beyer, N/A Brisnet, 15-1

Pros: Knows how to find the winner’s circle, as Japanese-based colt has been victorious in four of most recent six lifetime starts, owning two wins against UAE Derby winner and fellow runner Admire Daytona. Extrapolated closing fractions indicate a strong finish last out at 9f, coming home in an estimated :36.51 for the final 3/8. Sire American Pharoah derives from the Mr. Prospector sire line, and of course won this race en route to ending the Triple Crown drought, so 10f should be well within reach. Gets to shed a couple of pounds here while no other colt does. While Beyer and Brisnet do not calculate speed figures for races outside of the United States, the hard data we do have is formidable against these. Racing Post awarded a 119 for the most recent win at 9f, the second highest in the field (compare to a 121 for Journalism/ 118 for Baeza and a 116 for Sandman), and the Thoro-Graph pairing of 3, while not the strongest number in the bunch, does suggest a move forward in this race.

Cons: We keep saying it- one day a Japanese-based horse is going to win this race, it’s only a matter of time- and it nearly happened last year. But as of now, this is still a historical obstacle to overcome shipping from overseas. Outside of the aforementioned common opponent, it is hard to get a good read on the company he’s been facing abroad, but this would appear in all likelihood to be a significant class leap.

Conclusion: Perhaps the true wildcard of the field with a wide range of realistic finish outcomes; we wouldn’t be surprised to see either a second place or second to last place finish, or anything in between. Will oppose for the win in the trifecta but use underneath and on top in exactas; the definition of a defensive use as there are so many unknowns with this shipper.

#16 COAL BATTLE (Coal Front/ Midshipman) 91 Beyer, 98 Brisnet, 30-1

Pros: Had been a gritty win machine at shorter distances, posting four consecutive victories dating back to last November, including a graded score in the 8.5f Rebel ahead of next out winner Sandman. 72-year old trainer Lonnie Briley makes his Derby debut, a cool story.

Cons: This is another that tired badly when stretching out to 9f, finishing 3^rd while well beaten (7 lengths) and losing a ton of ground in the stretch. All told, the final 3/8 fraction of :40.31 and Late Pace rating of 70 are both field worsts. It is likely not a coincidence then that the other colt we already profiled that shares a similarly sprint-heavy pedigree configuration (Owen Almighty) showed almost mirror image finishing deficiencies. From a speed figure standpoint, there is still a lot to be desired.

Conclusion: There is an argument to be made that jockey Juan Vargas moved too early into a hot pace in the Arkansas Derby, and Briley has admitted that the horse was short on fitness last out, but the pedigree concerns and general lack of speed don’t inspire a ton of confidence in regard to moving to 10f against the likes of these. Would need to take a big leap forward; passing.

#6 ADMIRE DAYTONA (Drefong/ Shackleford) N/A Beyer, N/A Brisnet 30-1

Pros: Earned entry via winning the 9.5f UAE Derby in Dubai, one of only two runners in the field to have won beyond the 9f distance.

Cons: Has been racing against far weaker company, and two head-to-head defeats to today’s foe Luxor Café is all we have to go on from a form comparison standpoint. The UAE Derby winner has still finished no better than 3^rd in this event, a placing that finally came in last year’s race by the far more accomplished Forever Young. Estimated closing fractions of :38.61 for the final 3/8 raise some concern at this longer distance, as does a somewhat strange “turf over sprint” pedigree.

Conclusion: We gave the UAE Derby winner a shot in the top slot two years ago with Derma Sotogake. He wasn’t disgraced when completely missing the break and running on late to be 6^th, and seemingly validated our opinion later that fall when he ran 2^nd in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. However, we won’t be doing that again until one of these shippers beats us, and this one seems considerably less dangerous than a lot of UAE Derby winners before him, as well as the shipper we already profiled that has defeated him twice on the square. Will not use.

STALKERS:

#8 JOURNALISM (Curlin/ Uncle Mo) 108 Beyer, 108 Brisnet, 3-1 Morning Line Favorite

Pros: Morning line favorite looms a towering presence here off of two impressive graded wins out west this year.  Son of Curlin is undefeated over two turns in four career starts, has never been passed and holds field topping speed figures by a large margin. Appears battle tested after overcoming extreme trouble winning the 9f Santa Anita Derby last out, pinned down on the rail and being bumped throughout, still finishing the final 3/8 in :37.44 and posting a Late Pace rating of 109, which is the highest in the field on dirt. Earns the Timeform “Best Late Pace” designation in race labeled as a “Fast Pace” by their pace projector; combining these is a handicapping angle we’ve had a great deal of success keying in on. Being so royally bred, should relish the additional distance of this race, and runs third off the lay for a trainer who wins with an impressive 24% of runners in that stage of their form cycle.

Cons: There are not any statistically significant historical red flags here relative to the colt, one of just two in the entire field that can make that claim. If we’re trying to pick holes, neither trainer Michael McCarthy or jockey Umberto Rispoli have ever won a Kentucky Derby, and Rispoli would do well to not let this colt get into the same sort of trouble that he did last time in this far larger field. On a related note, it’s probably worth observing that this colt has raced in small five horse fields over the last three races, and faces a field quadruple that size this time. The Beyer speed figure for the Santa Anita Derby win (102) did downtick from the race before it in the San Felipe (108) as did the Thoro-Graph top (-0.5 back to 1.5), but this may have been by design, and the lower Beyer still tops the field anyway.

Conclusion: As confident we’ve been in a Derby winner since American Pharoah. 3-1 would be a gift. This is a colt that combines the fastest speed figures in the field with the strongest late pace figures in the field and that draws a perfect post outside of a projected pace collapse that should provide a dream setup. It may not be sexy, but don’t overthink it. The favorite has lost this race six straight times after winning the six previous times; time to revert to the mean.

#9 BURNHAM SQUARE (Liam’s Map/ Scat Daddy) 96 Beyer, 101 Brisnet, 12-1

Pros: Accomplished runner from the Ian Wilkes barn enters off a closing victory in the 9f Blue Grass, and won the 8.5f Holy Bull two races before that one, defeating subsequent Florida Derby winner Tappan Street. Has plenty of bottom after running three two turn races in 2025, and has been working flawlessly over the track, posting a :59 1/5 5f workout a week ahead of the race. Shows ascending Beyers over last three races, and last year’s Derby winning jockey Brian Hernandez retains the mount.

Cons: While the closing move in the Blue Grass was visually impressive, the numbers tell a different story, as the come home time of :38.77 for the final 3/8 and a low Late Pace rating of 89 are both cause for concern. The bizarre Tuesday running of the Blue Grass after the race was moved from its usual weekend slot due to weather leaves less than four weeks between races, a potential timing disadvantage, and it’s fair to question the overall quality of that field in general. Threw a dud two races back when 4^th against a stronger field in the Fountain of Youth, behind fellow runners Sovereignty and Neoequos. This is the only gelding in the field; will try to follow the path of Funny Cide and longshot winner Mine That Bird to accomplish a rare feat.

Conclusion: There is plenty to like here with this colt, who has faster Late Pace ratings at shorter distances to fall back on, but there’s also a nagging sense that we may have already seen his best after pairing career Thoro-Graph figure tops of 4 and making the big move to a 1.5 last time out in a race that really set up beneficially. There appear to be others that will finish a bit more forcefully. Will use defensively on the bottom of trifectas, but oppose for the win and exacta spots.

#13 PUBLISHER (American Pharoah/ Proud Citizen) 95 Beyer, 98 Brisnet, 30-1

Pros: Enters off a decent-enough 2^nd place finish in the 9f Arkansas Derby, improving with the added distance from a 4^th place finish at 8.5f in the prior start against a similar field. Not to be repetitive, but his daddy won the Triple Crown, so that doesn’t hurt.Gets Irad Ortiz on for the first time out of the Steve Assmussen barn, an intriguing combination to say the least.

Cons: Winless in seven career starts, the only maiden in the field. Has tables to turn against fellow runners Sandman, Tiztastic and American Promise. One could argue that the Arkansas Derby field was weak, and that the pace meltdown that occurred there served to benefit his late move, although the final 3/8 fraction of :38.56 and Late Pace rating of 87 doesn’t exactly jump off the page anyway, and ground was actually lost in the stretch to the more powerfully closing Sandman. 

Conclusion: A maiden has not won the Kentucky Derby since 1933, so he’s not for us on the top line. For those looking for a bomber to use underneath in superfectas, any of these closing types have a shot given the likely pace forecast, there are simply others we prefer in this spot.

#11 FLYING MOHAWK (Karakontie/ Twirling Candy) 84 Beyer, 97 Brisnet, 30-1

Pros: Moved from turf to synthetic in last and finished 2^nd at 9f in the Jeff Ruby, making up some ground late. Closing figures over non-dirt surfaces aren’t exactly apples to oranges comparisons, but the final 3/8 move of :37.56 and Late Pace rating of 102 appear strong here on paper.

Cons: Has never raced on dirt, with the five previous career starts coming over the turf before the move to synthetic. The top Beyer figure of 84 is the field low, and breeding is entirely turf-laden.

Conclusion: Actually lost ground in the stretch of the Jeff Ruby, so if you’re using one from that race anywhere, we don’t advise it to be this one. Toss.

#15 RENDER JUDGEMENT (Blame/ Commissioner) 90 Beyer, 96 Brisnet, 30-1

Pros: Last minute entry has solid bottom, with three 9f races in 2025, and has the benefit of a maiden-breaking win over this track. Ownership group has connection to the late Toby Keith, so this entry is a bit of a feel-good story for country music fans.

Cons: Has never hit the board in a graded race, beaten a combined 23 lengths in two tries this year behind the likes of Burnham Square, East Avenue, American Promise, Chunk of Gold and Tiztastic. Lone career win came in maiden-breaking score in second attempt. Slow speed figures and slow late pace figures compared to this field.

Conclusion: It’s an absolute travesty that the points system somehow allows a colt like this to draw into the field ahead of one like Baeza, who needed scratches to ensure entry. It’s shameful stuff and changes need to be made. FURIOUSLY AND VIOLENTLY TOSS.

CLOSERS:

#18 SOVEREIGNTY (Into Mischief/ Bernardini) 95 Beyer, 99 Brisnet, 5-1

Pros: Produced perhaps the most visually impressive win of the year two back in the 8.5f Fountain of Youth, gobbling up two entire lengths in the stretch to run-down the pace setting leader while posting a 103 Late Pace rating in the process to go with career speed figure tops. A last out 2nd in the Florida Derby looked like a slight regression speed wise but was arguably an ideal prep, and the closing fractions and Late Pace figure were still impressive (:37.11 and :12.38 for the final 3/8 and 1/8, 97 Late Pace rating). Has the benefit of being the only graded winner over the Churchill Downs surface by way of the 8.5f Street Sense last October, crushing the likes of opponents Sandman and Tiztastic by a convincing 5 lengths in that effort, which seems meaningful here.

Cons: We’re willing to give a pass for the Florida Derby effort; he didn’t need to be fully cranked for that after already gaining the needed points for entry here, just simply needed to maintain form. Still, it bears mention that while high enough to avoid a red flag designation, these speed figures will not get it done in this spot. There’s also some concern that a deep closer like this will be left with too much to do late, as most Derby winners are in the lead by the 1/8 pole, and that sort of racing position has been elusive over five career starts.

Conclusion: We really like the form cycle resulting from astute progression and campaign planning by trainer Bill Mott here, running third off the lay after pairing career best Thoro-Graph numbers of 1.75, which suggests a big move forward should be forthcoming for the only other colt in the field besides the favorite that has zero statistical red flags. And will this really be the second choice following a 2nd place finish in the final prep versus the likes of last out winner Sandman with his Tik Tok following and Metallica reference? We view this runner as the most likely threat to the top selection, but are not completely convinced that the public will agree (and at time of writing, this is correct), so perhaps there is still value to be had in the exacta spot and on top in multis and trifectas.

#17 SANDMAN (Tapit/ Distorted Humor) 99 Beyer, 101 Brisnet, 6-1

Pros: Capitalized on a perfect pace setup against a weak field last out in the 9f Arkansas Derby, but posted career best speed figures that point to contention in this spot; the 99 Beyer earned there is the third best in this field. Finished ahead of Tiztastic three back when 2^nd in the 8.5f Southwest, and was flattered when that one ran back to win the Louisiana Derby. Bred to run all day and has the look of a colt begging for more distance and another chance to run into some pace; grey son of Tapit should be granted both here.

Cons: As much as we love deep closers in seemingly speed-laden fields, and as dominant as that stretch run looked in the Arkansas Derby, the numbers tell a different story. The final 3/8 were covered in a sluggish :38.51, good for only an 88 Late Pace rating. This grey colt also raced greenly throughout that stretch run once taking command, struggling to stay in a straight line in eighth career start, which is something we shouldn’t expect from such a heavily campaigned sort. From a pure wagering standpoint, given the ownershippresence of Griffen Johnson, a TikTok personality with 10 million followers, expect likely underlay status regardless of your view. There’s also a certain Metallica song that will draw attention to the name. We used to believe that the Derby pool was too large and intelligent for things like these to matter, but then My Boy Jack happened. As mentioned already, Sovereignty beat him fair and square last fall over this track by a convincing 5 lengths.

Conclusion: Truth be told, we were disappointed to see how poorly the Arkansas Derby closing fractions came back, as visually that was the type of sweeping move that often wins this race, and Sandman had corralled the lead before the 1/8 pole, so it wasn’t as though he was coming from the clouds. It’s notable that the race setup here figures to materialize in a similar manner. Unfortunately, taking those numbers in context with the overall weak quality of the Oaklawn circuit, it is difficult to make a strong case for use on top. Much like Burnham Square, who received a similarly beneficial setup against a weak field, having paired Throro-Graph numbers of 4.5 in two previous starts and moving to 1.5 last out, it’s fair to wonder how much of a jump is feasible here. Given the likely pace scenario, this one is perfectly logical to hit the board, but won’t be offering much value. Use defensively on the bottom of trifectas, but the feeling here is that the time to back him as a winner was last time (and we did).

#3 FINAL GAMBIT (Not This Time/ Tapit) 90 Beyer, 101 Brisnet, 30-1

Pros: Lightly raced winner of the 9f Jeff Ruby Stakes over the synthetic Turfway Park surface showed a dazzling turn of foot in victory, coming home in a field best :35.91 for the final 3/8 and posting a field high Late Pace rating of 112. There’s solid distance breeding on the bottom of the pedigree, so the added ground itself shouldn’t be an issue.

Cons: Has never raced on dirt in four career starts, and while working like he will handle it, there is a bit of concern in regard to the reaction from extreme kickback due to the inside draw. Being one that wants to drop back anyway, racing out of the #3 Post isn’t a necessarily a death sentence, but it isn’t exactly going to be an ideal introduction to the surface either. Can those blistering closing fractions translate to the dirt? The Ruby came back as one of the weakest preps in terms of speed figures per Beyer (90) and Thoro-Graph (5.75).

Conclusion: Appears to be vying for wise guy status, which makes sense for pace handicappers. If you’re pegging this race to unfold with a fast pace, it seems perfectly logical to look for value with a colt who closed the fastest, but a total pace meltdown may be necessary for actual victory here. We’ve seen more surprising outcomes than that would be however, under similar circumstances, and it bears mention that sire Not That Time has had some success in this race with progeny such as Epicenter (2^nd) and Simplification (4^th). The feeling here is that this could be a synthetic specialist with limited experience, but we’d be hard pressed to talk anyone out of taking a flyer at these odds, and will consider using on the bottom of exotics in case the race really falls apart.

#14 TIZTASTIC (Tiz The Law/ Tapit) 95 Beyer, 100 Brisnet, 20-1

Pros: Stretch running winner of the 9.5f Louisiana Derby is the only American runner to boast a win beyond 9f based on that effort, and a strong pedigree confirms that this distance should be more than attainable. Trainer Steve Asmussen has entered 26 runners without ever winning and has been as snakebit as any in this event, losing by a nostril with Nehro, getting run down by Rich Strike with Epicenter when seemingly home free in the stretch, and having to run a September Derby after Tiz The Law had already leveled off, not to mention strong runs in defeat from colts like Curlin and Gun Runner that would eventually prove their superiority. If you believe in karma, no one is more due to win this race than Asmussen.

Cons: The Louisiana Derby curse continues, as the positioning of that race six weeks before this one has not translated to success in this event. Similar to Sandman, this is another visually impressive closer who turned in less than ideal closing numbers in victory (:38.43 for the final 3/8 and a concerning Late Pace rating of 81). The speed figures from that effort are fine, not great, but it bears mention that none of the previous seven starts before that one produced nearly as high of a figure, and had pretty much plateaued about 10 points lower. From a Thoro-Graph standpoint, this colt had registered four consecutive numbers in the 7 range before posting a career topping 3.75 last time out.

Conclusion: There are worse ways to go when looking for a trifecta bomber than a colt proven to win at longer distances and that was pulling away in the stretch in the final prep. A bit of a grinding type, it certainly helps that Joel Rosario hops back on following the Louisiana Derby score. At the end of the day the large leap made there between races is puzzling in the same way that American Promise’s is, so we’ll put them both in the “Where Did That Come From?” category, scratch our head and predict them to finish in the smack middle of the field. We’ll give this one the better shot of the two to hang on for a piece of the trifecta, purely based on our read of the race shape.  

#19 CHUNK OF GOLD (Preservationist/ Cairo Prince) 92 Beyer, 98 Brisnet, 30-1

Pros: You have to squint a bit to find the positives for this under-the-radar sort, who brings 32-year-old trainer Ethan West to the Derby for the first time. Lightly raced with only four career starts, the first two of which came on synthetic, the last out runner up finish in the Louisiana Derby was a career topping effort. One of three colts in the field to pair career best Thoro-Graph numbers in their last race (5 in this case), we expect a big leap forward this time. Somewhat amazingly, this is the only colt in the field to have never finished out of the exacta.

Cons: The red flags here are abundant. Too long of a layoff, not enough races, slow speed figures, has never won outside of maiden company. One can argue that jockey Jareth Loveberry, who retains the mount here, raced too close to a hot pace in the Louisiana Derby and is likely to employ different tactics this time, but the late pace numbers still approach field low material (72). The pedigree doesn’t scream 10f either. 

Conclusion: He’s 30-1 for a reason, and will likely be that or higher at post time (you have to love the gifted, indiscrete 30-1 handouts so that the horse’s feelings don’t get hurt). When pace handicapping one has to take a stand, and in this instance, many will conclude as we have that a hot pace appears to be likely. That opinion alone should instantly elevate all of the closers. This is exactly the type of closer who finishes 3^rd and ruins every single trifecta ticket on Earth while horseplayers scream about how impossible of a game this is before doing a Derby post-mortem, looking back over the actual data that was right in front of them the whole time, and realizing how obvious it was.

Picks Summary:

1. Journalism 3-1
2. Sovereignty 5-1
3. Baeza 12-1
4. Luxor Café 15-1
5. Sandman 6-1
6. Burnham Square 12-1
7. Final Gambit 30-1
8. Chunk of Gold 30-1
9. Tiztastic 20-1
10. American Promise 30-1
11. East Avenue 20-1
12. Citizen Bull 20-1
13. Publisher 30-1
14. Admire Daytona 30-1
15. Neoequos 30-1
16. Coal Battle 30-1
17. Flying Mohawk 30-1
18. Render Judgement 30-1
19. Owen Almighty 30-1

HOW TO WAGER $100 ON THE KENTUCKY DERBY:

$50 WIN on Journalism at 5-2 or higher

$0.50 Tri Part Wheel: Journalism, Sovereignty/ Journalism, Sovereignty, Baeza, Luxor Café, Sandman/ Journalism, Sovereignty, Baeza, Luxor Café, Sandman, Burnham Square, Final Gambit, Chunk of Gold, Tiztastic ($28)

$0.50 Trifecta Saver: Baeza/ Journalism, Sovereignty/ Journalism, Sovereignty, Luxor Cafe ($2)

$1 Exacta Box: Journalism, Sovereignty, Baeza, Luxor Cafe ($12)

$4 Exacta Box: Journalism, Sovereignty ($8)

Use in Pick 3/ Pick 4/ Pick 5: Journalism, Sovereignty