Breeders Cup 2009- Picks and Analysis

It is that time of year again, and over the course of Friday and Saturday, 14 championship races will feature the world’s best thoroughbreds and a wagering challenge that is surely the year’s most difficult. At the Breeders’ Cup, anything can happen, especially as the races will remain on Santa Anita’s controversial pro-ride synthetic track for the second year in a row. The rise of synthetic tracks has certainly rendered the already challenging handicapping process even more difficult, but I’ll try get an idea of which horses should take to this track by looking at last year’s results, this year’s trends, and the way the horses have been working over the track. I’m only going to be wagering on ten of these races, so here is a brief analysis of each of those, and the horses in those races that I think will be a factor, as well as an outline of how I’ll wager my $200 target budget. Teaser: I’ve got no love for any Zen in this year’s addition…I’m tossing both Zensational and Zenyatta, the likely favorites in the Sprint and Classic.

FRIDAY:

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES: 1 1/16 miles, 3:45 CST Post

The two year old races are always somewhat of a crapshoot, but in this race we do have the benefit of focusing on some horses that have already run at this distance, and some that have even run the distance over this very track. Blind Luck was an impressive winner here in her last start, closing stoutly to win the Oak Leaf and posting an 88 Beyer Speed Figure. The horse who ran second to her in that race, Always a Princess, ran that race five wide on the lead before being caught at the wire, and stands a chance to get loose on the lead with a better trip and if the track is favoring the speed around two turns. However, she couldn’t win that race on the rail coming out of the one hole, so I question her ability to improve from the wider #11 post, and her workouts over the course have been suspect. Negilgee came home strong to win the Alcibiades over Keeneland’s synthetic polytrack surface, and posted an 89 Beyer in that race at this same distance. She’s also been working like dynamite at Santa Anita. Another interesting horse in this race is She Be Wild, who ran on the lead in the Alcibiades before being caught at the wire. An improvement upon the 88 Beyer in that race puts her among the top of these. Connie and Michael boasts the highest speed figure in the field, and while her lightning quick 7f race at Kenneland earned her a 95 Beyer, I question her ability to cover the added distance on a track that has been bad news for speed horses all year- she’ll probably either win in a romp or finish last. Devil May Care has been improving as she has increased her distances, and was an 8f winner at Belmont last time out, posting an 89 Beyer, but this will be her first try on a synthetic surface. Zilva is tested and improving, but was handily beaten by Negilgee and She Be Wild last time out, although her speed figures have shown solid progression over her last three races (68-76-84). She’ll need to take another leg up to be in the mix here. Biofuel has an impressive grade win over synthetic at 8.5f to her credit, but her 84 Beyer leaves something to be desired. Beautician looks to be somewhat of a “wise-guy” horse in this race, coming off a strong 7f  second place finish at Saratoga (91 Beyer), but she struggled on the synthetic in the Alcibiades while enduring a tough trip, but I’ll be looking elsewhere.

PICKS SUMMARY:

1. Blind Luck 3-1

2. Negilgee 6-1

3. She Be Wild 8-1

Try to Beat: Connie and Michael 4-1

BETS: ($10)

$1 Exacta Box: Blind Luck, Negilgee, She Be Wild

$4 Place: Blind Luck

FILLY AND MARE TURF, 1 1/4 miles, 4:23 CST Post

The Euros have dominated this race since its inception, but I’m going to take a shot on some American horses this year. Magical Fantasy has looked sharp in winning four straight, two at this distance, and all over the firm turf which she figures to get here. Her speed figures have been consistent (98 Beyer in her last three races) and she might need to improve on those slightly to win here, but her workouts and recent form indicate that she is sitting on a big one. Defending champion Forever Together is hard to dismiss, despite struggling at shorter distances and softer turf her last two times out. However, this is her ideal distance and one has to figure that she will relish the extra two furlongs here (she closed hard in both losses at 8f and 9f), and if she runs back to her 105 Beyer from last year’s win, she will be hard to beat. Of the Euros, Midday is by far the scariest, having not missed the board in six starts this year across the pond against top competition, and should love the distance, although she might prefer the softer going. Racing Post Figures of 111 and 120 in her last two starts at 12f can’t be ignored. Pure Clan has been inconsistent but looked great in winning the 12f Flower Bowl over soft turf and the 98 Beyer she earned is certainly competitive here, but she really struggled over this track last year and I will try to beat her. A live longshot in this race could be Visit (10-1), who ran very close to Magical Fantasy in two second place finishes, losing by less than a length in both with strong closing moves, and ran well to finish fourth here last year. She hasn’t made it to the winners circle this year in seven starts, but comes out of the #1 post in a race without much speed and has demonstrated that she might want more distance. If you like Magical Fantasy at all, you have to like Visit at least a little bit.

PICKS SUMMARY:

1. Magical Fantasy 3-1

2. Forever Together 5-2

3. Midday 4-1

Try to Beat: Pure Clan 5-1

BETS: ($18)

$1 Exacta Box: Magical Fantasy, Forever Together, Midday

$1 Exacta Box: Magical Fantasy, Forever Together, Visit

$6 Place: Magical Fantasy

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT, 7 furlongs, 5:02 CST Post

Closers have dominated this race since its creation, and two of those types of runners stand out above the rest of this field and will likely be short prices, but pretty sure bets in multi-race wagers. Informed Decision is 6 for 6 on synthetics, and while her top Beyer figure of 105 at this distance at Keeneland has been difficult to duplicate, her numbers have been improving over her last three races (93-95-99, the last two both late closing wins over synthetic and the first a third place finish over a sloppy dirt track). She also has a victory at Keeneland last April over her primary competitor, defending champion Ventura, who is arguably coming into this race in even better form than she did last year despite being lightly raced (only one race since April). Switching between turf and synthetic courses, her steadily improving Beyers (98-104-105-108) over her last four races dwarf the rest of this field, and she should love this surface and distance. It’s tough to imagine any other horse winning this race besides those two, but a personal favorite that I like to hit the board and potentially surprise is Game Face. This tough filly probably prefers a dirt track and was handily beaten by Informed Decision over the synth in her last start, but her field-best 109 Beyer over the dirt in July at a slightly shorter distance, as well as her preference to come from off the pace, both merit a long look at decent odds. Versatile three-year old Sara Louise has looked great in her only two 2009 races, posting a 104 and 103 Beyer, but she takes a big step up in class here and will see synthetic for the first time, making her a bit of a wildcard play in this race. The late running Evita Argentina might intrigue those looking for a closer, but I don’t think she has the speed to compete with these, while turf runner Seventh Street is probably misplaced here and wants more distance.

PICKS SUMMARY:

1. Informed Decision 5-2

2. Ventura 8-5

3. Game Face 10-1

Try to Beat: Seventh Street 4-1

BETS: ($14)

$4 Exacta Box: Informed Decision, Ventura

$1 Exacta Box: Informed Decision, Ventura, Game Face

BREEDERS’ CUP LADIES’ CLASSIC, 1 1/8 miles, 5:45 CST Post

With champion mare Zenyatta’s decision to run against the boys in the Classic, this race really breaks down to two horses in my opinion. Music Note was third in this race last year, but has been improving by leaps and bounds, posting field-topping Beyers of 108 and 107 in her last two winning races, the last over a fast track at this distance in the Beldame. Three-year old sensation Careless Jewel got lost in the Rachel Alexandra craze for most of the year, but this front-running winner of five straight races posted a 106 Beyer at a longer distance in her last start and boasts two wins over polytrack. Depending on how the track plays, she could get loose from the #1 post and will be difficult to catch. The field seems to separate a bit after those two, but there are still plenty of horses with upset potential who should be a decent price. Cocoa Beach has struggled mightily over a vast array of surfaces this year after an impressive second in this race last year, but her workouts over the track so far have been among the most impressive, and I think she is sitting on a big improvement coming in if she gets a clean trip– she had excuses in her last race as she bobbled at the start, and hasn’t handled soft turf or sloppy dirt courses well, neither of which should factor in this race. Expect strong showings from the Euro invaders in this one as well, as Proviso is a tested winner over the synth at Keeneland, where she posted a 99 Beyer, whereas she did not look as solid on the turf in England. Superstar Rainbow View seems like a better fit in the Filly and Mare Turf, but her placement here merits a look based on her experience. I’ll stick with the speedy Americans in this one again.

PICKS SUMMARY:

1. Music Note 9-5

2. Careless Jewel 2-1

3. Cocoa Beach 8-1

Try to Beat: Rainbow View 6-1

BETS: ($16)

$2 Exacta Box: Music Note, Careless Jewel, Cocoa Beach

$2 Exacta Box: Music Note, Careless Jewel

FRIDAY MULTI-RACE WAGERS:

$1 Pick 3: Magical Fantasy, Forever Together, Midday/ Informed Decision, Ventura/ Music Note, Careless Jewel ($12)

SATURDAY

BREEDERS CUP SPRINT, 6 furlongs, 2:10 CST Post

To me, this race, as usual, is the toughest pick on the entire board. There are really two ways to look at it: either the speed horses will get loose and wire the field, as has rarely been the case, especially on this track this year, or the closers wear down the speed. From a handicapping standpoint, I’m going with a combination of the two to keep it somewhat safe. Fatal Bullet has all the tools to wire this field if he gets loose, and has also shown the ability to sit just off the pace in his nine wins over synthetic surfaces; he’ll set up perfectly to do that coming from the #3 post outside of the race’s main speed. He ran well to finish second in this race last year, and should win if he can run back to or improve upon that effort, as there’s no Midnite Lute to worry about in this year’s race. Throwing out a sixth place clunker over the dirt in Saratoga (his only non-synthetic start), his last four Beyers are consistent and imposing (108-107-109-104). However, the strong closers in this race have been very successful, and while there are a slough of them, two catch my eye immediately.  Gayego absolutely devoured horses down the stretch in his Ancient Title win over this track, covering 6f in 1:08.1 and posting a competitive 102 Beyer. He’ll certainly be in the mix late, and should be able to run his race and stay off the pace out of the #5 post. My longshot pick in this field is Capt. Candyman Can, a stone cold closer who probably prefers a longer race but could be there at the end if the pace completely disintegrates (which looks like an even more likely scenario after the post draw); he closed impressively in his second place finish to Fatal Bullet over the synthetic Keeneland course last time out, and his last three Beyers of 105, 103 and 103 are certainly competitive here. The horse that scares me the most here is likely favorite Zensational, who keeps winning easily against weak fields on similar surfaces and boasts the highest career Beyer in the field of 110. Nevertheless, I’ll try to beat him, as I can’t justify backing two speed horses in this race the way that the track has played for these types of runners, especially with Zensational on the rail in the #1 post, and while he could easily get loose and win (I’ll be forced to use him in my Pick 3 for that reason), I like Fatal Bullet’s resume and versatility a bit more.  Dancing in Silks (15-1) is an intriguing longshot who should be in the second flight of horses, and actually beat Gayego handily here a year ago. Amazingly, he boasts the best last race Beyer figure in the field, as he ran a 106 in his last start, and over this race track to boot. He’s improving, winning three straight all over synthetic surfaces, and he’ll have a spot in my exotics as well.

PICKS SUMMARY:

1. Fatal Bullet 9-2

2. Gayego 5-2

3. Capt. Candyman Can 15-1

Try to Beat: Zensational 7-5

BETS: ($20)

$1 Exacta Box: Fatal Bullet, Gayego, Capn. Candyman Can

$1 Exacta Box: Fatal Bullet, Gayego, Dancing In Silks

$8 Place: Fatal Bullet

BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE, 1 1/16 miles, 2:49 CST Post

I’ll stick with the same philosophy with these youngsters that I used with the two-year-old filles, and that’s to look at horses that have had two turn experience and especially over synthetic surfaces in this wide open race. By that measure, Lookin at Lucky seems like the horse to beat, as he posted an 89 Beyer in winning his last start over this course in the Norfolk. His speed figures aren’t the most impressive here, but he looks like a horse for the course after some professional-looking works this week, and his experience should be very valuable against this field of horses. He’ll start out of the #13 post, which isn’t great news, but I think that he can overcome that positioning at better odds than the morning line implies, but he’ll certainly have a lot to overcome, as starters out of the #12 and #13 post are 0-28 over the last two years. That stat took him from being one of the surest singles of the day to a horse that might be worth playing against at these odds, but I’d be terrified not to use him. Aikenite closed hard to finish second over the synth at Keeneland in his last start after running five wide the entire way, still posted a 90 Beyer, and should improve on that effort with a better trip. Noble’s Promise won that race with a 91 Beyer, the highest here over two turns, and can’t be ignored. The Euros always make this race tricky, but I like Radiohead the best (aside from the obvious fact that I’d have to bet on any horse with that name). He’s never raced beyond 6f, but his pedigree is a plus (sire Johannesburg won this race) and he is very seasoned, racing six times and posting a 117 Racing Post Rating. Pounced looks interesting as well as he has run well over 7f on the turf, but his speed ratings are a bit lower, and with these Europeans horses that is about all I have to go on. D’Funnybone will be the center of a lot of buzz as his 93 Beyer over 7f is tops here, but he hasn’t run on synthetic or over two turns, and the combination of those two facts along with his straight-t0-the lead style lead me to try to beat him. Pulsion made up ground on this course in his second place finish in the Norfolk, but is he fast enough to compete here? (86 Beyer in that effort)

PICKS SUMMARY:

1. Lookin at Lucky 8-5

2. Aikenite 8-1

3. Noble’s Promise 8-1

Try to Beat: D’Funnybone 5-2

BETS: ($12)

$1 Exacta Box: Lookin at Lucky, Aikenite, Noble’s Promise, Radiohead

BREEDERS CUP MILE, 1 mile, 3:38 CST Post

The Mile is always a fun race to handicap, but it is also always a challenge to compare the field of half American runners and half Euro runners. I’ll play it safe this time around, and stick with the monstrous defending champion filly Goldikova, who has been in top form this year outside of her third place finish at 7f last time out, but this 8f race should be more to her liking. Her top Racing Post Rating of 131 is world class and there isn’t much reason to think she is vulnerable here besides her outside #11 post, especially after her dominant win in this race last year. The pace here should be pretty hot, so the outside posts might actually be beneficial in this race to avoid traffic and wait for the right time to make a late move. If an American can upset her and claim the crown, the most likely candidate is Justenufhumor, who won six straight races at 9f before a 6th place effort last time out over a soft turf course, which I see as a “toss’ race. Besides, if his increasing Beyers of 94-99-103-106 before that race were indicative of a bounce, he picked the right time, and should be ready to roll in this race coming out of the #10 post. It is difficult to separate the Euros after those two, but I’ll give Zacinto the slight edge over his more seasoned rival and morning line second choice here Delegator (3-1), although I plan to use them both. They’ve traded wins in their last two races, but Zacinto got the better of Delegator in their last outing and has never finished worse than second in five career starts, posting a 125 Racing Post Racing at this distance in a narrow loss the the highly regarded Rip Van Winkle. The Irish bred Fernely posted a career best 106 Beyer in a narrow loss to Ventura last time out, and will be a factor if he runs back to that effort. Another American with a shot is Cowboy Cal, winner of the Oak Tree Mile over this course in his last start (104 Beyer). However, he’s a likely pace casualty in my opinion along with Gladiatorous. I’ll try to beat Court Vision, who may take some betting after his upset win in the Shadwell Mile, but I’ve never been impressed with his speed, and he needed a soft turf course to win that one, and he is unlikely to get that in sunny California.

PICKS SUMMARY:

1. Goldikova 8-5

2. Justenufhumor 10-1

3. Zacinto 8-1

Try to Beat: Cowboy Cal 6-1

BETS: ($16)

$1 Exacta Box: Goldikova, Justenufhumor, Zacinto

$1 Exacta Box: Goldikova, Justenufhumor

$1 Exacta Box: Goldikova/Justenufhumor/ Zacinito, Delegator

$5 Place: Justenufhumor

BREEDERS CUP DIRT MILE, 1 mile, 4:12 CST Post

What had been shaping up as a very intriguing race is now probably the day’s least exciting race after the seemingly ill-advised decisions of the connections of Quality Road, Girolamo and Regal Ransom to run in the longer, deeper Classic race. With the field as it stands, it looks like it will be very hard for any of these horses to knock off the seasoned Euro invader Mastercraftsman in this race. He has raced all over the spectrum, but won his last start over a synthetic surface in his only try. He was most successful earlier in the year at shorter distances on the turf, winning twice at 8f and posting 124 Racing Post Ratings in both of those starts; I don’t anticipate that the switch to pro-ride will be too difficult given what seems like a preference for firmer turf anyway, and he should handle coming out of the #1 post as the biggest favorite on the day. After that, the picture gets a bit murkier. Midshipman won the Juvenile over this track a year ago, but has been sidelined for most of 2009 with an injury. He was impressive in his return, winning over 6.5 furlongs at Belmont and closing impressively, improving his career best Beyer to 98. He appears to have the best shot at pulling the upset from a logistics point of view, as he figures to be the lone speed on a track that he is already proven over, and could get away early without any challengers from the perfect #3 post. An interesting longshot is Furthest Land, who made a giant improvement in his last start after switching to synthetic, a surface which he had won on previously, but his Beyer jumped from 91 to 106, which certainly merits a long look at decent odds. The second choice here is Bullsbay, an impressive winner of the 9f Whitney at Saratoga. I’ll try to beat him, as there are questions about his ability to handle the track, and I think that he might prefer a bit more room to stretch out than 8f.

PICKS SUMMARY:

1. Mastercraftsman 6-5

2. Midshipman 6-1

3. Furthest Land 20-1

Try to Beat: Bullsbay 3-1

BETS: ($10)

$1 Exacta Box- Mastercraftsman, Midshipman, Furthest Land

$4 Place- Midshipman

BREEDERS CUP TURF, 1 1/2 miles, 4:57 Post

This race has long been dominated by the European horses, and there are again a strong contingent of contenders from across the pond to provide the bulk in this small eight horse field. Defending champion Conduit had a rough time in the Arc de Triomphe, finishing fourth behind some of the world’s top thoroughbreds, but gained steadily in that effort, and won his previous start at this distance in impressive fashion (127 and 124 Racing Post Ratings in those starts.) His 116 Beyer in this race last year is far superior to anything that the rest of this field has accomplished, but something tells me that he won’t have as easy of a time as he did over last year’s weak field. America’s best hope appears to be front runner Presious Passion, who figures to get the jump on this bunch and has a shot to go wire to wire if they give him too much slack. Throwing out the Arlington Million, which seemed to produce several bizarre results, this veteran gelding has posted three straight 100+ Beyer figures, including a 104 at this distance in his last outing, a victory in the Clement Hirsch. He’ll almost certainly go to the lead, and it will be up to the Euros to run him down, which won’t be easy as he is likely to benefit from the firm turf. The horse with the best chance to do that might be Spanish Moon, a lightly raced but steadily improving five year old who is 3-2-1-0 at this distance in 2009, posting competitive Racing Post Rating of 119, 120 and 121. Highly regarded filly Dar Re Mi probably would have had a better shot in the Filly and Mare Turf, but instead she’ll face the boys in this one, but I’ll take a pass, as her figures don’t compare to Conduit and Spanish Moon, although she did finish fifth just behind the former in the Arc. Red Rocks won this race in 2006 and took third place in 2007, but has been in a downward spiral since.

PICKS SUMMARY:

1. Presious Passion 4-1

2. Conduit 7-5

3. Spanish Moon 5-2

Try to Beat: Dar Re Mi 3-1

BETS: ($18)

$2 Exacta Box: Presious Passion, Conduit, Spanish Moon

$6 Place: Presious Passion

BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC, 1 1/4 miles, 5:45 CST Post

This is world’s greatest race year after year, and the 2009 edition certainly won’t be lacking for depth, featuring everything from the best older horses and three-year-olds in America to an undefeated mare, champion Euro turf horses and the best American turf horse in years. It’s a hard race to even begin to handicap, but before doing so I think it is important to take a long, hard look at what happened last year, when odds-on favorite Curlin finished fourth and two seemingly unknown Euros took first and second place; it is clear that the track surface in such a long race will make a huge difference, and can pose a huge obstacle for even the most accomplished dirt horses. Still, Curlin had not ever run on pro-ride, so it is worthwhile to take a look at some American horses as well that have shown an affinity for this track. The experienced seven-year-old Einstein made his name on the turf early in his career, but turned heads when he won the 10f Santa Anita Handicap over this track back in March, posting a 104 Beyer. Since then, he’s raced twice on synthetic, finishing a hard closing third in the shorter 9f Stephen Foster and losing a hard fought battle down the stretch in the 10f Pacific Classic at Del Mar, bettering the aforementioned figure as he posted a 107. He’s been a model of consistency and seems to love this track, and this appears to be his ideal distance. The likely favorite in the Classic will be a European, Rip Van Winkle, who comes off back to back 8f turf wins which is reminiscent of the form of last year’s winner, Raven’s Pass, coming into this race. He’s raced against the best in Europe at this distance and has posted a spectacular 132 Racing Post Rating, and figures to have no trouble switching from turf to pro-ride. The horse that clipped Einstein at the wire of the Pacific Classic is Richard’s Kid, a live longshot who seems to have found his form recently after switching from dirt to synthetic, complete with some eye-catching works this week. This seems to be his best distance, as his hard closing third place finish over this course in his last start, the Goodwood Hcp,, seemed to indicate that he prefers a bit more distance. After a wild Triple Crown season, Summer Bird has emerged as America’s best three-year-old following steadily improving victories in the Belmont, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup (100, 110 and 111 Beyers). As impressive as his late kick has been, I can’t help but think he wasn’t assisted greatly by the sloppy tracks that produced those last two numbers, as his pedigree indicates a strong affinity for mud but has been noticeably ineffective on synthetic surfaces. So far, he has worked quickly if not comfortably over the surface, but I think he’ll have a lot to overcome, and the very fact that he was cross-entered in the Turf race is a head-scratching means for pause. Another intriguing Euro is Twice Over, who doesn’t boast speed figures as impressive as his counterpart Rip Van Winkle, but has won three consecutive races at this distance over good turf. I’ll pass on the undefeated mare Zenyatta, who will attempt to close her incredible career with an unlikely upset that figures to be way overbet; despite an impressive second gear and success over this exact track, the horse has never run beyond 9f or faced males, and this is a really tough time to try to do both against the best in the world, especially when her string of victories has come at the expense of lackluster company and slow (sub 100 in her last two outings) figures. Colonel John has always been a personal favorite of mine and this is his home track (career best Beyer of 106 came in last start here at 9f), and he could be sitting on a big race. He faced a difficult wide trip when he was easily bested by both Einstein and Richard’s Kid at this distance in the Pacific Classic. I’ll be using him in exotics because I wouldn’t be able to live with myself if he won this and I had nothing on him, and actually, as I look over his profile, there aren’t really any question marks (proven on synthetic, proven at the distance, improving Beyers, sire won this race twice, etc). Gio Ponti shoots for the win here despite almost certainly having a better shot to win the Turf, as his most recent race over this course was not nearly as promising as his later ones on the grass proved to be, and with a lot of questions marks from a style perspective I can’t give him too much backing here. Mine That Bird’s Kentucky Derby win still feels somewhat flukey to me, and while he has certainly run better since then than I ever imagined he would, he’s in a pretty tough spot here, and may have benefited in that race from a crop of three-year-olds that was much weaker than anyone thought at the time. Besides, the two worst races of his career have come on this pro-ride track, which doesn’t exactly bode well for his half brother Summer Bird who has yet to give synthetic surfaces a try. The horse that intrigues me the most of the three-year-olds is Quality Road, who has posted three 110+ Beyers in his career and just recently made the jump to the 10f distance, finishing third in the Travers and then second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, both over sloppy tracks that were not to his liking. I don’t think we’ve seen his best yet, but I still believe that he would have had a better shot in the Dirt Mile; in fact, I probably would have picked him to win that one. The icing on the cake is the fact that he drew horribly, and a horse that wants the lead but starts out of the #12 post is going to struggle to get comfortable, especially on a new surface. The same goes for Regal Ransom coming out of #11, except he’s already proven that he can’t handle the distance. While I’m essentially playing against all of the three-year olds and calling this a weak crop relative to the older horses, the one that could completely fly under everyone’s radar is Girolamo. This late bloomer is yet to run past 8f but has been explosive, and is a serious wildcard with strong distance pedigree (A.P. Indy/ Get Lucky (Mr. Prospector). I’m not sure how to actually play him in a race this deep, but you’ve been warned. There’s so much depth here that anything could happen and it wouldn’t surprise me, but I’ll lean toward the older, synthetic experienced horses in this year’s Classic.

PICKS SUMMARY:

1. Einstein 12-1

2. Richard’s Kid 12-1

3. Rip Van Winkle 7-2

Try to Beat: Zenyatta 5-2

BETS: ($22)

$1 Exacta Box: Einstein, Rip Van Winkle, Richard’s Kid, Colonel John

$6 Place: Einstein

$4 Place: Richard’s Kid

SATURDAY MULTI-RACE WAGERS:

$1 Pick 3- Fatal Bullet, Zensational, Gayego/ Lookin at Lucky, Aikenite/ Goldikova, Justenufhumor ($12)

$1 Pick 3- Mastercraft, Midshipman/ Presious Passion, Conduit, Spanish Moon/ Einstein, Rip Van Winkle, Richard’s Kid, Colonel John, Summer Bird ($30)

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UPDATE: For having lost $140 on $225 of bets, I feel pretty good about myself. I missed two exactas in a photo finish, literally, (the Juvenile Fillies and the Sprint) and missed another two by less than a head (the Mile and the Dirt Mile, back to back I might add, and the latter with an excruciating jockey objection that would have resulted in a $100 exacta. No such luck). Considering I hit two others, I was really, really close to hitting six out of my ten exacta boxes, which would have been huge. The only race where my handicapping completely fell apart was the Classic, which either played like a massive pace disintegration, or Zenyatta really is that good. In any case, due to the combination of how far off I was on the outcome of the biggest race of the day, as well as having the chance to witness live what might have been one of the most climactic performances of the decade, I couldn’t get too upset about it.

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