Bracketology 3/11

In the past 24 hours, San Diego and Middle Tennessee State helped create additional bubble trouble by knocking off at-large candidates Gonzaga and South Alabama respectively. Gonzaga is almost certainly in the field, but South Alabama now joins a bubble discussion that is already overflowing.

It appears that the first round action in the Pac-10 tourney is going to turn out to be quite the battleground, as virtually inseparable Arizona State, Arizona and Oregon will try to outdo one another for what appears to be a maximum of two spots. Meanwhile, once safely in New Mexico appears to need at least one and maybe two wins this week, and Ohio State probably needs to beat Michigan State again to feel completely safe. Syracuse meets Villanova tomorrow for what is certain to be an elimination game and either team will need to win another one the next day, while Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, UAB, Maryland, Florida, St. Joseph’s and Dayton probably need to reach the final of their respective conference championships to get back into the picture. VCU and South Alabama must sit and wait now, although I feel that the latter has a far superior resume and can’t see both of these teams getting in after making early exits before their conference finals.

Here’s how I think the picture looks heading into tomorrow’s action (last 4 in bold):

1    North Carolina    UCLA    Memphis    Tennessee
2    Kansas    Texas    Duke    Xavier
3    Georgetown    Wisconsin    Louisville    Stanford
4    Notre Dame    Connecticut    Drake    Indiana
5    Vanderbilt    Michigan State    Butler    Purdue
6    Washington State    Pittsburgh    Marquette    USC
7    Clemson    Mississippi State    BYU    Gonzaga
8    Oklahoma    Baylor    Kansas State    Miami, Fl
9    West Virginia    St. Mary’s    Kent State    Davidson
10    Texas A & M    UNLV    Kentucky    Arkansas
11    UMass    Illinois State    Arizona State    Western Kentucky
12    Arizona    South Alabama    New Mexico    Ohio State
13    Cornell    Oral Roberts    George Mason    Stephen F Austin/ Southland
14    Robert Morris/ NE    Boise State/ WAC    UCSB/ Big West    San Diego
15    Winthrop    Austin Peay    Portland St./ Big Sky    Belmont
16    UMBC/ America East    Morgan State/ MEAC    Siena/ MAAC    Alabama St/ American

LAST 4 IN  
ARIZONA
SOUTH ALABAMA
NEW MEXICO
OHIO STATE

LAST 4 OUT  
SYRACUSE
OREGON
OLE MISS
VIRGINIA TECH

NEXT 4 OUT
UAB
MARYLAND
ST. JOSEPH’S
FLORIDA

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