March Madness Draws Near

Believe it or not, the NCAA Tournament is going to be here before you can blink. It is time to start talking about the bubble. I’ll be posting my selection analysis on an ongoing basis beginning today. There are 34 at-large spots in the field this year. This analysis assumes that the automatic bids from the power conferences will go to teams who are already in the field. It also assumes that at large locks from conferences likely to get only a bid or two also get automatic berths. If any of these assumptions turn out not to be the case, as they always do, that is when bubbles burst!

LOCKS (11 at-large spots):

NORTH CAROLINA
DUKE
PITTSBURGH
MARQUETTE
GEORGETOWN
OHIO STATE
WISCONSIN
INDIANA
KANSAS
TEXAS A & M
OKLAHOMA STATE
UCLA
WASHINGTON STATE
OREGON
FLORIDA
KENTUCKY
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
MEMPHIS
NEVADA
AIR FORCE
BUTLER
UNLV

SAFELY IN FOR THE TIME BEING (18 at-large spots):

FLORIDA STATE 17-8, 5-6 29 RPI
VIRGINIA 15-7, 8-3 34 RPI
BOSTON COLLEGE 18-6, 9-2 19 RPI
VIRGINIA TECH 16-7, 7-3 33 RPI
CLEMSON 19-5, 5-5 21 RPI
NOTRE DAME 18-6, 6-5 50 RPI
WEST VIRGINIA 18-5, 7-4 37 RPI
VILLANOVA 17-7, 6-5 13 RPI
TEXAS 17-7, 7-3 53 RPI
KANSAS STATE 18-7, 8-3 46 RPI
ARIZONA 17-7, 8-5 6 RPI
STANFORD 15-7, 7-4 36 RPI
USC 18-7, 8-4 47 RPI
TENNESSEE 17-8, 5-5 15 RPI
ALABAMA 18-6, 5-5 31 RPI
CREIGHTON 17-8, 11-4 25 RPI
MISSOURI STATE 17-7, 9-5 32 RPI
BYU 17-6, 8-2 23 RPI

That leaves 5 remaining spots. Welcome to the Bubble!

RECORD RPI POSITIVE WINS BAD LOSSES

MARYLAND 18-7, 4-6 35 Clemson, at Illinois, Duke / Miami
GEORGIA TECH 16-8, 4-6 56 at Memphis, Purdue, Georgia, at Vanderbilt, Duke, FSU, Clemson / at Miami, at Wake Forest
PROVIDENCE 15-8, 5-5 55 Marquette / Brown, at Seton Hall
SYRACUSE 17-8, 6-5 65 at Marquette, Villanova / Witchita State, Drexel, at St. John’s, at UConn
LOUISVILLE 16-8, 7-4 72 / Dayton, UMass
IOWA 14-11, 6-5 83 Indiana / Arizona State, Northern Iowa, Drake MICHIGAN 16-8, 4-5 58 Purdue / Iowa
MICHIGAN STATE 17-8, 4-6 42 Texas / none
PURDUE 16-9, 5-6 39 Virginia, at Oklahoma / Indiana State, at Minnesota
ILLINOIS 18-9, 6-6 41 none / none TEXAS TECH 15-10, 4-6 45 at Arkansas, at Kansas State / at Baylor, at Missouri, Nebraska
OKLAHOMA 14-8, 6-4 62 none / none
WASHINGTON 15-8, 5-7 82 none / at California
ARKANSAS 15-9, 4-6 38 West Virginia, Alabama / Missouri, at South Carolina
VANDERBILT 15-8, 6-4 49 Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky / Wake Forest, Furman, Appalachian State
GEORGIA 13-9, 6-5 43 Gonzaga, Kentucky / Western Kentucky
OLE MISS 16-8, 5-5 57 Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama / at St. Louis, at Miss State
XAVIER 18-7, 8-3 36 Villanova, Illinois / Cincinnati, Bucknell, St. Louis, St. Joseph’s, Duquense, Creighton
GONZAGA 17-8, 7-2 54 at North Carolina, at Texas, Washington / at St. Mary’s, at LMU
APPALACHIAN ST 16-6, 11-3 59 Virginia, Vanderbilt, VCU / at Wake Forest, Furman
VCU 21-5, 13-2 45 Drexel, Old Dominion / Toledo, App State, at Hofstra
DREXEL 18-6, 11-4 52 at Villanova, at Syracuse / at Penn, at Rider, Hofstra, Old Dominion twice
WINTHROP 16-4, 10-0 75 at Old Dominion / none
OLD DOMINION 19-7, 12-3 56 at Georgetown, VCU, Drexel twice / at Marist, Winthrop, at Hofstra, at James Madison
BRADLEY 15-10, 7-7 48 at Southern Illinois / at Tennessee Tech, at Northern Iowa, at Witchita State
DAVIDSON 19-4, 12-1 68 none / at Missouri, at Michigan, Appalachian State
UMASS 17-7, 7-3 67 at Louisville / Miami, at Rhode Island, at Temple
HOFSTRA 18-7, 11-3 71 Drexel, Old Dominion / at Charlotte, at Manhattan, Hawaii, Northeastern, Delaware
NEW MEXICO ST 17-6, 8-3 82 Nevada / at LMU, at New Mexico, at Louisiana Tech, at Utah St, at Fresno St
Last Five In:

ILLINOIS

LOUISVILLE

VANDERBILT

MARYLAND

MICHIGAN STATE

Last Five Out:

ARKANSAS

GEORGIA TECH

PROVIDENCE

GEORGIA

APPALACHIAN STATE

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